February 18 2013

A new Study on Energy Policy: Can Advanced Biofuels deliver?

A new paper published in Energy Policy provides novel evidence on second and third generation biofuel technologies. Fifteen leading experts from different EU member states offer insights on the future potential of these technologies both in terms of costs and diffusion. The four main findings of the research indicate that: demonstration should become a key area of funding, without a carbon tax biofuels will not be cost-competitive by 2030, the US will be the first country to achieve a breakthrough in production costs and biofuels will not exceed 20% of fuels used in the private vehicle market.

The article is authored by Giulia Fiorese, Michela Catenacci, Elena Verdolini and Valentina Bosetti [JC1]within the ICARUS project.

This paper illustrates the main results of an expert elicitation survey on advanced biofuel technologies. The survey focuses on eliciting probabilistic information on the future costs of advanced biofuels and on the potential role of Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) efforts in reducing these costs and in supporting the deployment of biofuels in OECD and non-OECD countries. Fifteen leading experts from different EU member states provide insights on the future potential of advanced biofuel technologies both in terms of costs and diffusion. This information results in a number of policy recommendations with respect to public RD&D strategies and is an important contribution to the integrated assessment modelling community.

Download the peer-reviewed article from Energy Policy , or FEEM’s working paper version, or read through the brief, policy-oriented article on FEEM’s online magazine Re3.

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

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