Seminars & webinars
23 November 2017

FEEM Research Seminar on "Looking into Crystal Balls: A Laboratory Experiment on Professional Forecasting"


Where: Milan
Location:

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
Corso Magenta 63
20123 Milan
***
video-conference (at FEEM Venice) and GoToMeeting broadcast available

Event's Timetable:

h. 12.30 Seminar
In Milan a light lunch will follow the seminar for registered participants.

Information:

Registration is required. Please confirm your participation here.
Seminars Office, seminars@feem.it

Speaker:

Salvatore Nunnari, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi

Abstract

This paper reports the results from a laboratory experiment designed to study strategic communication by an expert who is concerned about appearing to be well informed. A reporter privately observes a signal about a state of the world and reports a message to an evaluator. The informativeness of the signal is uncertain and unknown to both the reporter and the evaluator. The evaluator assesses the informativeness of the signal on the basis of the reporter’s message and the realization of the state of the world. The reporter benefits from being perceived as having accurate information, as her payoff increases in the evaluator’s assessment. With a series of carefully designed experimental treatments, we anatomically dissect reporters’ incentive to misreport. We manipulate the degree of common prior uncertainty on the state of the world and, using computerized evaluators, the beliefs of, as well as learning by, the evaluators. In line with the theoretical predictions, we find that reporters are less likely to misreport when there is more uncertainty about the state of the world and when evaluators conjecture that reporters truthfully report the signal. On the other hand, evaluators find it difficult to learn reporters’ strategies and overreact to messages that inaccurately predict the state of the world. In turn, this reduces reporters’ incentive to misreport and can account for reporters’ empirical strategies.

FEEM Newsletter & Update

Subscribe to stay connected.

Your personal data will be processed by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. – data Controller – with the aim of emailing the FEEM newsletter & Update. The use of Your email address is necessary for the implementation of the newsletter service. You are invited to read the Privacy Policy in order to obtain additional information about the protection of Your rights.

This Website uses technical cookies and cookie analytics, as well as “third party” profiling cookies.
If you close this banner or you decide to continue navigating on this Website, you express consent to the use of cookies. If you need additional information or you wish to express selective choices on the use of cookies, please refer to the   Cookie PolicyI agree