Seminars & webinars
24 May 2018

FEEM Research Seminar on "Forecasting heat-related mortality using endogenously determined thresholds and temperature projections from Global Climate Models"


Where: Milan
Location:

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
Corso Magenta 63
20123 Milan
***
video-conference (at FEEM Venice) and GoToMeeting broadcast available

Event's Timetable:

h. 12.30 Seminar
In Milan a light lunch will follow the seminar for registered participants.

Information:

Registration is required. Please confirm your participation here.
Seminars Office, seminars@feem.it

Speaker:

Thomas Longden, University of Technology Sydney

Abstract

Heat-related mortality tends to be associated with heatwaves that do not allow for sufficient acclimatisation to hot weather. In contrast, damage functions and most heatwave emergency response plans do not account for acclimatisation. Using an excess heat measure that accounts for acclimatisation, this paper produces forecasts of heat-related mortality for the five largest Australian capital cities. Fixed effects panel threshold regressions are applied to establish the thresholds that coincide with heightened mortality during extreme temperature events. The estimated parameters associated with these thresholds are then combined with projections of temperature from three major Global Climate Models to develop forecasts of heat-related mortality for the period between 2017 and 2041. The estimated thresholds coincide with a notable impact of hot weather on mortality, but a limited cold weather impact. As this is carried over into the forecasts, the burden of risk associated with mortality related to future temperatures and climate change within Australia coincides with heatwaves rather than coldwaves. This is in contrast to a recent study that found that cold weather-related mortality within Australian capital cities has and will continue to be notable.

FEEM Newsletter

Subscribe to stay connected.

Your personal data will be processed by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. – data Controller – with the aim of emailing the FEEM newsletter. The use of Your email address is necessary for the implementation of the newsletter service. You are invited to read the Privacy Policy in order to obtain additional information about the protection of Your rights.

This Website uses technical cookies and cookie analytics, as well as “third party” profiling cookies.
If you close this banner or you decide to continue navigating on this Website, you express consent to the use of cookies. If you need additional information or you wish to express selective choices on the use of cookies, please refer to the   Cookie PolicyI agree