FEEM Publications

Energy Balance Climate Models and the Spatial Structure of Optimal Mitigation Policies

06 Jan 2012

We develop a one-dimensional energy balance climate model with heat transportation across locations. We introduce the concept of potential world GDP at time t, and we introduce, through the temperature function, spatial characteristics into the damage function which make damages latitude dependent. We solve the social planner’s problem and characterize the competitive equilibrium. We define optimal taxes on fossil fuels and profit taxes on firms that extract fossil fuels. Our results suggest that if the implementation of international transfers across latitudes is not possible, then optimal taxes are spatially non homogeneous and tend to be lower at the poor latitudes. The degree of spatial differentiation of optimal taxes depend on heat transportation. We also locate sufficient conditions for optimal mitigation policies to have rapid ramp-up initially and then decrease over time. By employing the properties of the spatial model and approximating solutions, we show how to study the impact of thermal transport across latitudes on welfare inequality.

Modeling Ambiguity in Expert Elicitation Surveys: Theory and Application to Solar Technology R&D

05 Jan 2012

Optimal R&D investment is defined by deep uncertainty that can only partially be addressed through historical data. Thus, expert judgments expressed as subjective probability distributions are seen as an alternative way of assessing the potential of new technologies. In this paper we propose a simple decision-theoretic framework that takes into account ambiguity over expert opinion and helps decision makers visualize the full range of R&D outcomes given a particular level of ambiguity. Our model is intuitive, captures decision makers' ambiguity attitudes, and enables simple sensitivity analysis across levels of ambiguity. We apply our framework to original data from a recent expert elicitation survey on solar technology. The analysis suggests that ambiguity plays an important role in assessing the potential of a breakthrough in solar technology given different R&D investments.

Brown Sunsets and Green Dawns in the Industrial Sector: Environmental Innovations, Firm Behavior and the European Emission Trading

04 Jan 2012

We study the driving forces behind the adoption of environmental innovations (EI) in the Italian industry over 2006-2008 through analyses of the new wave of Community Innovation Survey (CIS) data that covered for the first time environmental innovation adoptions. We investigate whether the first phase of EU ETS has exerted some effects on environmental innovations by using a very large sample of italian manufcturing firms. Estimates show that external forces and complementarity with other management practices are particularly relevant to increase the adoption of relatively new and radical technologies: relationships with other firms and institutions, local public funding, group membership are the key factors. The role of ETS on EI seems instead to be weak: it drives innovation if we compare ETS and non ETS firms, but the stringency itself does not matter, due to sector idiosyncratic factors and to the fact that stability of policy also matters.

Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change. An Updated CGE Point of View

03 Jan 2012

The present research describes a climate change integrated impact assessment exercise, whose economic evaluation is based on a CGE approach and modeling effort. Input to the CGE model comes from a wide although still partial set of up-to-date bottom-up impact studies. Estimates indicate that a temperature increase of 1.92°C compared to pre-industrial levels in 2050 could lead to global GDP losses of approximately 0.5% compared to a hypothetical scenario where no climate change is assumed to occur. Northern Europe is expected to benefit from the evaluated temperature increase (+0.18%), while Southern and Eastern Europe are expected to suffer from the climate change scenario under analysis (-0.15% and -0.21% respectively). Most vulnerable countries are the less developed regions, such as South Asia, South-East Asia, North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. In these regions the most exposed sector is agriculture, and the impact on crop productivity is by far the most important source of damages. It is worth noting that the general equilibrium estimates tend to be lower, in absolute terms, than the bottom-up, partial equilibrium estimates. The difference is to be attributed to the effect of market-driven adaptation. This partly reduces the direct impacts of temperature increases, leading to lower damage estimates. Nonetheless these remain positive and substantive in some regions. Accordingly, market-driven adaptation cannot be the solution to the climate change problem.

The Future Prospect of PV and CSP Solar Technologies: An Expert Elicitation Survey

02 Jan 2012

In this paper we present and discuss the results of an expert elicitation survey on solar technologies. Sixteen leading European experts from the academic world, the private sector and international institutions took part in this expert elicitation survey on Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies. The survey collected probabilistic information on (1) how Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) investments will impact the future costs of solar technologies and (2) the potential for solar technology deployment both in OECD and non-OECD countries. Understanding the technological progress and the potential of solar PV and CPS technologies is crucial to draft appropriate energy policies. The results presented in this paper are thus relevant for the policy making process and can be used as better input data in integrated assessment and energy models.

Why do Firms Hold Oil Stockpiles?

28 Dec 2011

Persistent and significant privately-held stockpiles of crude oil have long been an important empirical regularity in the United States. Such stockpiles would not rationally be held in a traditional Hotelling-style model. How then can the existence of these inventories be explained? In the presence of sufficiently stochastic prices, oil extracting firms have an incentive to hold inventories to smooth production over time. An alternative explanation is related to a speculative motive - firms hold stockpiles intending to cash in on periods of particularly high prices. I argue that empirical evidence supports the former but not the latter explanation.

Evaluating the Impacts of the EU-ETS on Prices, Investments and Profits of the Italian Electricity Market

27 Dec 2011

In this paper we investigate the economic impacts of the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) on the Italian electricity market by a power generation expansion model. In particular, we assume that generators make their capacity expansion decisions in a Cournot or in a perfect competition manner. This model is used to measure the effects of the EU-ETS Directives on electricity prices and demand, investments and generators' profits both in an oligopolistic and in a perfectly competitive organization of the power market. We adopt a technological representation of the energy market which is discretized into six geographical zones (North, Center-North, Center-South, South, Sicily, Sardinia) and five virtual poles (Monfalcone, Foggia, Brindisi, Rossano, Priolo) with limited production for a total of eleven zones. We assume that generators operate in different zones connected by interconnections with limited capacity and produce energy by running existing or new plants in which they directly invest. We consider several investment scenarios under the CO2 regulation with and without incentives to renewables. The scenarios also include simulations on future effects of the third EU-ETS phase on the system. Our analysis shows that perfect competition induces generators to invest more than in an oligopolistic framework, but in both market configurations, investments are mainly concentrated in fossil-red plants (CCGT and coal), leaving a small proportion to new wind plants. This happens also in presence of incentives given to renewable technologies. We can thus conclude that investments in a secure and efficient technology like CCGT are preferable compared to those in renewables that cannot be used with continuity. This investment policy affects electricity prices that significantly increase in 2020 compared to their 2009 levels. The raise of electricity prices in 2020 is particularly favorable for generators operating as Cournot players which are able to increase their profits compared to 2009, despite the full auctioning system foreseen for the allocation of CO2 allowance to the power sector in the third EU-ETS phase. The solution of the overall system is found by exploiting the mixed complementarity theoretical framework and solution algorithms. The developed model is implemented as complementarity problems and solved in GAMS using the PATH solver.

Combining Climate and Energy Policies: Synergies or Antagonism? Modeling interactions with energy efficiency instruments

24 Dec 2011

In addition to the already present Climate and Energy package, the European Union (EU) plans to include a binding target to reduce energy consumption. We analyze the rationales the EU invokes to justify such an overlapping and develop a minimal common framework to study interactions arising from the combination of instruments reducing emissions, promoting renewable energy (RE) production and reducing energy demand through energy efficiency (EE) investments. We find that although all instruments tend to reduce emissions and a price on carbon tends to give the right incentives for RE and EE too, the combination of more than one instrument leads to significant antagonisms regarding major objectives of the policy package. The model allows to show in a single framework and to quantify the antagonistic effects of the joint promotion of RE and EE. We also show and quantify the effects of this joint promotion on ETS permit price, on wholesale market price and on energy production levels.

Incentives and Stability of International Climate Coalitions: An Integrated Assessment

23 Dec 2011

This paper analyses the incentives to participate in and the stability of international climate coalitions. Using the integrated assessment model WITCH, the analysis of coalitions’ profitability and stability is performed under alternative assumptions concerning the pure rate of time preference, the social welfare aggregator and the extent of climate damages. We focus on the profitability, stability, and “potential stability” of a number of coalitions which are “potentially effective” in reducing emissions. We find that only the grand coalition under a specific sets of assumptions finds it optimal to stabilise GHG concentration below 550 ppm CO2-eq. However, the grand coalition is found not to be stable, not even “potentially stable” even through an adequate set of transfers. However, there exist potentially stable coalitions, but of smaller size, which are also potentially environmentally effective. Depending on the assumptions made, they could achieve up to 600 ppm CO2-eq. More ambitious targets lead to the collapse of the coalition.

Designing Carbon Taxation Schemes for Automobiles: A Simulation Exercise for Germany

22 Dec 2011

Vehicle taxation based on CO2 emissions is increasingly being adopted worldwide in order to shift consumer purchases to low-carbon cars, yet little is known about the effectiveness and overall economic impact of these schemes. We focus on feebate schemes, which impose a fee on high-carbon vehicles and give a rebate to purchasers of low-carbon automobiles. e estimate a discrete choice model of demand for automobiles in Germany and simulate the impact of alternative feebate schemes on emissions, consumer welfare, public revenues and firm profits. The analysis shows that a well-designed scheme can lead to emission reductions without reducing overall welfare.

The Environment and Directed Technical Change: Comment

21 Dec 2011

This paper discusses the growth model with environmental constraints recently presented in (Acemoglu et al., 2011) which focuses on the redirection of technical change by climate policies with research subsidies and a carbon tax. First, Acemoglu et al.'s model and chosen parameters yield numerical results that do not support the conclusion that ambitious climate policies can be conducted “without sacrificing (much or any) long-run growth”. Second, they select unrealistic key parameters for carbon sinks and elasticity of substitution. We find that more realistic parameters lead to very different results. Third, the model leads to an unrealistic conclusion when used to analyse endogenous growth, suggesting specification problems.

Equilibri 3.2011 - Tecnologie per un futuro senza carbonio

21 Dec 2011

La transizione verso un sistema energetico a basse emissioni di carbonio è già iniziata, nonostante la supremazia delle fonti fossili – carbone, petrolio e gas naturale – a livello mondiale. Per aiutare il lettore a capire quali siano le reali prospettive nel campo delle fonti rinnovabili e i problemi cui si sta cercando di trovare soluzione, il dossier di questo numero descrive lo stato dell’arte degli studi sulle tecnologie per la produzione di energia pulita. La transizione energetica implica politiche pubbliche e scelte private, investimenti nella ricerca e nell’innovazione tecnologica, senza perdere di vista il fatto che per una vasta parte della popolazione mondiale il problema non è se utilizzare tecnologie pulite o tradizionali, ma accedere all’energia necessaria allo sviluppo, qualunque essa sia.

The transition toward low-carbon energy is underway, although fossil fuels – coal, oil and natural gas – still play a leading role at the worldwide level. The dossier of this issue of Equilibri helps the reader understand the outlook in the field of renewables, the problems that remain to be solved and the state-of-the-art of research in clean energy technologies. The energy transition requires public policies and private choices, investments in research and technological innovation. However, a large part of the world population is still struggling to access the energy required for development, whatever the source, rather than deliberating on the choice between clean or conventional technologies.

Work Values in Western and Eastern Europe

20 Dec 2011

The paper reports on work values in Europe. At the country level we find that job satisfaction is related to lower working hours, higher well-being, and a higher GDP per capita. Moving to the micro level, we turn our attention from job satisfaction to analyse empirically work centrality and work value dimensions (without exploring empirically job satisfaction) related to intrinsic and extrinsic values, power and social elements. The results indicate substantial differences between Eastern and Western Europe. Socio-demographic factors, education, income, religiosity and religious denomination are significant influences. We find additional differences between Eastern and Western Europe regarding work-leisure and work-family centrality that could be driven by institutional conditions. Furthermore, hierarchical cluster analyses report further levels of dissimilarity among European countries.

Understanding Oil Prices. A Guide to What Drives the Price of Oil in Today's Markets

05 Dec 2011

It’s a fair bet that most of what you think you know about oil prices is wrong. Despite the massive price fluctuations of the past decade, the received wisdom on the subject has remained fundamentally unchanged since the 1970s. When asked, most people – including politicians, financial analysts and pundits – will respond with a tired litany of reasons ranging from increased Chinese and Indian competition for diminishing resources and tensions in the Middle East, to manipulation by OPEC and exorbitant petrol taxes in the EU. Yet the facts belie these explanations. For instance, what really happened in late 2008 when, in just a few weeks, oil prices plummeted from $144 dollars to $37 dollars a barrel? Did Chinese and Indian demand suddenly dry up? Did Middle East conflicts magically resolve themselves? Did OPEC flood the market with crude? In each case the answer is a definitive no – quite the opposite in fact.

Industry expert Salvatore Carollo explains that the truth behind today’s increasingly volatile oil market is that over the past two decades oil prices have come untethered from all classical notions of supply and demand and have transcended any country’s, consortium’s, cartel’s, or corporate entity’s powers to control them. At play is a subtler, more complex game than most analysts realise (or are unwilling to admit to), a very dangerous game involving runaway financial speculation, self-defeating government policymaking and a concerted disinvestment in refinery capacity among the oil majors.

In "Understanding Oil Prices" Carollo identifies the key players in this dangerous game, exploring their competing interests and motivations, their moves and countermoves. Beginning with the1976 oil embargo and moving through the 1986 Chernobyl incident, the implementation of the US Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, and the precipitous expansion of the oil futures market since the turn of the century, he traces the vast structural changes which have occurred within the oil industry over the past four decades, identifying their economic, social and geopolitical drivers, and analysing their fallout in the global economy. He explores the oil industry’s decision to scale down refining capacity in the face of increasing demand and the effects of global shortages of petrol, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil, chemical feedstocks, lubricants and other essential finished products, and describes how, beginning in the year 2000, the oil futures market detached itself almost completely from the crude market, leading to the assetization of oil, and the crippling impact reckless speculation in oil futures has had on the global economy. Finally he proposes new, more sophisticated models that economists and financial analysts can use to make sense of today’s oil market, while offering industry leaders and government policymakers prescriptions for stabilising the market to ensure a relatively steady flow of affordable oil.

A concise, authoritative guide to understanding the complex, oft misunderstood oil markets, "Understanding Oil Prices" is an important resource for energy market participants, commodity traders and investors, as well as business journalists and government policymakers alike.

Impacts of Border Carbon Adjustments on China’s Sectoral Emissions: Simulations with a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model

02 Dec 2011

Carbon-based border tax adjustments (BTAs) have recently been proposed by some OECD countries to level the carbon playing field and target major emerging economies. This paper applies a multi-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the impacts of the BTAs implemented by US and EU on China’s sectoral carbon emissions. The results indicate that BTAs will cut down export prices and transmit the effects to the whole economy, reducing sectoral output-demands from both supply side and demand side. On the supply side, sectors might substitute away from exporting toward domestic market, increasing sectoral supply; while on the demand side, the domestic income may be strikingly cut down due to the decrease in export price, decreasing sectoral demand. Furthermore, such shrinkage of demand may similarly reduce energy prices, which leads to energy substitution effect and somewhat stimulates carbon emissions. Depending on the relative strength of the output-demand effect and energy substitution effect, sectoral carbon emissions and energy demands will vary across sectors, with increasing, decreasing or moving in a different direction. These results suggest that an incentive mechanism to encourage the widespread use of environment-friendly fuels and technologies will be more effective.

Technological Change, Fuel Efficiency and Carbon Intensity in Electricity Generation: A Cross-Country Empirical Study

01 Dec 2011

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the determinants of energy efficiency in fossil fuel electricity generation across 28 OECD countries over the period 1981-2006, with particular attention to the role played by technological development and the availability of energy efficient technologies in the market. This contribution is novel in three respects: first, empirically assess the effects of different determinants of energy efficiency, which include the input mix in electricity generation, the capacity ratio at which power plants are run, as well as the characteristics of the production technology. Second, we focus on the role of technological availability: using patent data for carefully selected innovations in fossil-fuel technologies, we build an indicator which proxies for technological developments in fuel-efficient electricity generation. Third, by formalizing the relationship between fuel efficiency and carbon intensity, we assess the impact of changes in the input mix and in technological availability on CO2 emissions in the electricity sector. Results show that input mix, capacity utilization and new investment in capacity play a significant role in increasing energy efficiency. Increasing the stock of available technologies (or stock of knowledge) is also associated with higher efficiency levels. Given the link between increased efficiency and lower CO2 emissions, we conclude that technological change has a negative and significant effect on carbon intensity, while the changing input mix affects CO2 intensity both through an increase in efficiency as well as by lowering the input-weighted emission factor.

Oil Price Forecast Evaluation with Flexible Loss Functions

30 Nov 2011

The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that should be implemented. Relative to the previous literature, this paper is novel in several respects. First of all, we test and systematically evaluate the ability of several alternative econometric specifications proposed in the literature to capture the dynamics of oil prices. Second, we analyse the effects of different data frequencies on the coefficient estimates and forecasts obtained using each selected econometric specification. Third, we compare different models at different data frequencies on a common sample and common data. Fourth, we evaluate the forecasting performance of each selected model using static forecasts, as well as different measures of forecast errors. Finally, we propose a new class of models which combine the relevant aspects of the financial and structural specifications proposed in the literature (“mixed” models). Our empirical findings suggest that, irrespective of the shape of the loss function, the class of financial models is to be preferred to time series models. Both financial and time series models are better than mixed and structural models. Results of the Diebold and Mariano test are not conclusive, for the loss differential seems to be statistically insignificant in the large majority of cases. Although the random walk model is not statistically outperformed by any of the alternative models, the empirical findings seem to suggest that theoretically well-grounded financial models are valid instruments for producing accurate forecasts of the WTI spot price.

Land-use Change and Solar Energy Production: A Real Option Approach

28 Nov 2011

In this paper a real option model is developed to examine the critical factors affecting the decision to lease agricultural land to a company installing a PV power plant. The leasing payment is certain while the net revenues from agriculture are uncertain. We identify the profit values at which the farmer decides to lease his plot vs. continue farming it. By applying the model to the province of Bologna (Italy), we illustrate the possible land-use change scenarios in this area. We conclude by discussing the importance of PV energy production as a source of income for farmers and its implications from a social perspective.

Optimal Conservation Policy Under Imperfect Intergenerational Altruism

24 Nov 2011

In this paper we study the optimal forest conservation policy by a hyperbolically discounting society. Society comprises a series of non-overlapping imperfectly altruistic generations each represented by its own government. Under uncertainty about future pay-offs we determine, as solution of an intergenerational dynamic game, the optimal timing of irreversible harvest. Earlier harvest occurs and the option value attached to the forest clearing decision is eroded under both the assumptions of naïve and sophisticated belief about future time-preferences. This results in a bias toward the current generation gratification which affects the intergenerational allocation of benefits and costs from harvesting and conserving a natural forest.

Finding Maxmin Allocations in Cooperative and Competitive Fair Division

22 Nov 2011

We consider upper and lower bounds for maxmin allocations of a completely divisible good in both competitive and cooperative strategic contexts. We then derive a subgradient algorithm to compute the exact value up to any fixed degree of precision.

2C or Not 2C?

21 Nov 2011

Political attention has increasingly focused on limiting warming to 2°C. However, to date the only mitigation commitments accompanying this target are the so-called Copenhagen pledges, and these pledges appear to be inconsistent with the 2°C objective. Diverging opinions on whether this inconsistency can or should be resolved have been expressed. This paper clarifies the alternative assumptions underlying these diverging view points and explicits their implications. It first gives simple visualizations of the challenge posed by the 2°C target. It then proposes a “decision tree”, linking different beliefs on climate change, the achievability of different policies, and current international policy dynamics to various options to move forward on climate change.

Applications and Interviews. A Structural Analysis of Two-Sided Simultaneous Search

20 Nov 2011

Much of the job search literature assumes bilateral meetings between workers and firms. This ignores the frictions that arise when meetings are actually multilateral. I analyze the magnitude of these frictions by presenting an equilibrium job search model with an endogenous number of contacts. Workers contact firms by applying to vacancies, whereas firms contact applicants by interviewing them. Sending applications and interviewing applicants are costly activities but increase the probability to match. In equilibrium, contract dispersion arises and workers spread their applications over the different contract types. Estimation of the model on the Employment Opportunities Pilot Projects data set provides values for the cost of an application, the cost of an interview, and the value of non-market time. Frictions on the worker and the firm side are estimated to each cause approximately half of the 4.7% output loss compared to a Walrasian world. I show that in the estimated equilibrium welfare is improved if unemployed workers increase their search intensity.

Development Accounting with Intermediate Goods

18 Nov 2011

Do intermediate goods help explain relative and aggregate productivity differences across countries? Three observations suggest they do: (i) intermediates are relatively expensive in poor countries; (ii) goods industries demand intermediates more intensively than service industries; (iii) goods industries are more prominent intermediate suppliers in poor countries. I build a standard multisector growth model accommodating these features to show that inefficient intermediate production strongly depresses aggregate productivity and increases the price ratio of final goods to services. Applying the model to data for middle and high income countries, I find that poorer countries are only modestly less efficient at producing goods than services, but substantially less efficient at producing intermediate relative to final goods and services. If all countries had the intermediate production efficiency of the US, the aggregate productivity gap between the lowest and highest income countries in the sample is predicted to shrink by roughly two thirds while cross-country differences in the final price ratio would virtually vanish.

Land Conversion Pace under Uncertainty and Irreversibility: too fast or too slow?

16 Nov 2011

In this paper stochastic dynamic programming is used to investigate land conversion decisions taken by a multitude of landholders under uncertainty about the value of environmental services and irreversible development. We study land conversion under competition on the market for agricultural products when voluntary and mandatory measures are combined by the Government to induce adequate participation in a conservation plan. We study the impact of uncertainty on the optimal conversion policy and discuss conversion dynamics under different policy scenarios on the basis of the relative long-run expected rate of deforestation. Interestingly, we show that uncertainty, even if it induces conversion postponement in the short-run, increases the average rate of deforestation and reduces expected time for total conversion in the long run. Finally, we illustrate our findings through some numerical simulations.

An Evaluation of Overseas Oil Investment Projects under Uncertainty Using a Real Options Based Simulation Model

15 Nov 2011

This paper applies real options theory to establish an overseas oil investment evaluation model that is based on Monte Carlo simulation and is solved by the Least Squares Monte-Carlo method. To better reflect the reality of overseas oil investment, our model has incorporated not only the uncertainties of oil price and investment cost but also the uncertainties of exchange rate and investment environment. These unique features have enabled our model to be best equipped to evaluate the value of oil overseas investment projects of three oil field sizes (large, medium, small) and under different resource tax systems (royalty tax and production sharing contracts). In our empirical setting, we have selected China as an investor country and Indonesia as an investee country as a case study. Our results show that the investment risks and project values of small sized oil fields are more sensitive to changes in the uncertainty factors than the large and medium sized oil fields. Furthermore, among the uncertainty factors considered in the model, the investment risk of overseas oil investment may be underestimated if no consideration is given of the impacts of exchange rate and investment environment. Finally, as there is an important trade-off between oil resource investee country and overseas oil investor, in medium and small sized oil investment negotiation the oil company should try to increase the cost oil limit in production sharing contract and avoid the term of a windfall profits tax to reduce the investment risk of overseas oil fields.

The Promise and Problems of Pricing Carbon: Theory and Experience

13 Nov 2011

Because of the global commons nature of climate change, international cooperation among nations will likely be necessary for meaningful action at the global level. At the same time, it will inevitably be up to the actions of sovereign nations to put in place policies that bring about meaningful reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases. Due to the ubiquity and diversity of emissions of greenhouse gases in most economies, as well as the variation in abatement costs among individual sources, conventional environmental policy approaches, such as uniform technology and performance standards, are unlikely to be sufficient to the task. Therefore, attention has increasingly turned to market-based instruments in the form of carbon-pricing mechanisms. We examine the opportunities and challenges associated with the major options for carbon pricing: carbon taxes, cap-and-trade, emission reduction credits, clean energy standards, and fossil fuel subsidy reductions.

A Good Opening: The Key to Make the Most of Unilateral Climate Action

11 Nov 2011

In this paper we argue that when a subgroup of countries cooperate on emission reduction, the optimal response of non-signatory countries reflects the interaction between three potentially opposing factors, the incentive to free-ride on the benefits of cooperation, the incentive to expand the demand of fossil fuels, and the incentive to adopt cleaner technologies introduced by the coalition. Using an Integrated Assessment Model with a game theoretic structure we find that cost-benefit considerations would lead OECD countries to undertake a moderate, but increasing abatement effort (in line with the pledges subscribed in Copenhagen). Even if emission reductions are moderate, OECD countries find it optimal to allocate part of their resources to energy R&D and investments in cleaner technologies. International spillovers of knowledge and technology diffusion then lead to the deployment of these technologies in non-signatory countries as well, reducing their emissions. When the OECD group follows more ambitious targets, such as 2050 emissions that are 50% below 2005 levels, the benefits of technology externalities do not compensate the incentives deriving from the lower fossil fuels prices. This suggests that, when choosing their unilateral climate objective, cooperating countries should take into account the possibility to induce a virtuous behaviour in non-signatory countries. By looking at a two-phase negotiation set-up, we find that free-riding incentives spurred by more ambitious targets can be mitigated by means of credible commitments for developing countries in the second phase, as they would reduce lock-in in carbon intensive technologies.

Emissions Pricing to Stabilize Global Climate

10 Nov 2011

In the absence of significant greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, many analysts project that atmospheric concentrations of species identified for control in the Kyoto protocol could exceed 1000 ppm (carbon-dioxide-equivalent) by 2100 from the current levels of about 435 ppm. This could lead to global average temperature increases of between 2.5 and 6°C by the end of the century. There are risks of even greater warming given that underlying uncertainties in emissions projections and climate response are substantial. Stabilization of GHG concentrations that would have a reasonable chance of meeting temperature targets identified in international negotiations would require significant reductions in GHG emissions below “business-as-usual” levels, and indeed from present emissions levels. Nearly universal participation of countries is required, and the needed investments in efficiency and alternative energy sources would entail significant costs. Resolving how these additional costs might be shared among countries is critical to facilitating a wide participation of large-emitting countries in a climate stabilization policy. The 2°C target is very ambitious given current atmospheric concentrations and inertia in the energy and climate system. The Copenhagen pledges for 2020 still keep the 2°C target within reach, but very aggressive actions would be needed immediately after that.

Intellectual Property and Biodiversity: When and Where are Property Rights Important?

07 Nov 2011

An important issue in the life sciences industries concerns the nature of the incentive mechanism that should govern the production of innovation within this R&D sector. We look at the specific problem of coordinating the supply of inputs across very different agents - North and South - that must each supply inputs in order to generate innovations from the industry. The current arrangement in this industry provides for a single property right at “end of the pipeline”, i.e. where marketing of the innovation occurs. This property rights scenario raises two problems, one of efficiency and one of equity. The key question asked here pertains to the number and placement of property rights that should be instituted to address this property rights failure. Should one establish new property rights in traditional knowledge alone; property rights in genetic information alone; or in both? We demonstrate that in a world in which traditional knowledge and genetic information are complements in the production of R&D, a resolution of the property rights failure in genetic information also may resolve the allocation failure in traditional knowledge even in the absence of a distinct property right. The reason is that traditional knowledge of the nature of private information is comparable to a trade secret. Traditional knowledge holders may use this informational advantage to improve their benefit by capturing some informational rent. A new property right is important to enable bargaining and coordination to occur across the industry, but a single property right is probably sufficient to enable coordination between the two agents.

Annual Report 2010

19 Sep 2011

In 2010, FEEM carried out 49 research projects, 30 of which financed by the European Commission or third parties. Related activities include the organization of 34 scientific conferences and workshops, 45 scientific seminars and 4 summer schools. Overall, these events attracted over 5,000 attendees. In 2010, FEEM published 160 working papers in the "Note di Lavoro" series, 7 books, 9 policy briefs and 2 series of reports. The FEEM website recorded over 550,000 single visitors and over 1,2 million document downloads.

International Sourcing, Product Complexity and Intellectual Property Rights

06 Sep 2011

In this paper, we propose the technological complexity of a product and the level of Intellectual Property Rights (IPRs) protection to be the co-determinants of the mode through which multinational firms purchase their goods. We study the choice between intra-firm trade and outsourcing given heterogeneity at the product- (complexity), firm- (productivity) and country- (IPRs) level. Our findings suggest that the above three dimensions of heterogeneity are crucial for complex goods, where firms face a trade-off between higher marginal costs in the case of trade with an affiliate and higher imitation risks in the case of sourcing from an independent supplier. We test these predictions by combining data from a French firm-level survey on the mode choice for each transaction with a newly developed complexity measure at the product-level. Our fractional logit estimations confirm the proposition that although firms are generally reluctant to source highly complex goods from outside the firm’s boundaries, they do so when a strong IPR regime in the host country guarantees the protection of their technology.

Trade in Environmental Goods, with Focus on Climate-Friendly Goods and Technologies

04 Sep 2011

Paragraph 31(iii) of the Doha Ministerial Declaration mandates to the liberalization of environmental goods and services. This mandate offers a good opportunity to put climate-friendly goods and services on a fast track to liberalization. Agreement on this paragraph should represent one immediate contribution that the WTO can make to fight against climate change. This paper presents the key issues surrounding the liberalization of trade in climate-friendly goods and technologies in WTO environmental goods negotiations. It begins with discussing what products to liberalize and how. Given that WTO Members are divided by this key issue, the paper explores options to move current negotiations on the liberalization of trade in environmental goods and technologies forward, both within and outside the WTO. Recognizing that there is no one-size-fits-all strategy for tariff liberalization for all countries and for all environmental goods, the paper suggests the need for a high degree of flexibility to accommodate different situations and stakes in the liberalization of trade in environmental goods. Given that there are simply not enough environmental markets or these markets are weak in many developing countries, the paper emphasizes that creating markets for environmental goods in developing countries is far more important than just improving market-access conditions for associated goods, and discusses how to best serve the interests and concerns of developing countries.

Emigration and Wages: The EU Enlargement Experiment

03 Sep 2011

This paper studies the impact of a large emigration wave on real wages in the source country. Following EU enlargement in 2004, a large share of the workforce of the Central and Eastern Europe emigrated to Western Europe. Using data from Lithuania for the calibration of a factor demand model I show that emigration had a significant short-run impact on real wages in the source country. In particular, emigration led to a change in the wage distribution between young and old workers. The wages of young workers increased by 6%, whereas the wages of old workers decreased by around 1%. On the contrary, I find no effect on the wage distribution between workers of different education levels.

Unravelling the Worldwide Pollution Haven Effect

02 Sep 2011

This paper tackles the “pollution haven” argument by estimating the pollution content of imports (PCI). The PCI is then decomposed into three components: (i) a “deep” component (i.e. traditional variables unrelated to the environmental debate); (ii) a factor endowment component and (iii) a “pollution haven” component reflecting the impact of differences in environmental policies. The estimation is carried out for 1987 for an extensive data set covering 10 pollutants, 48 countries and 79 ISIC 4-digit sectors. Decompositions based on cross-section econometric estimates suggest a significant pollution haven effect which increases the PCI of the North because of stricter environmental regulations in the North. At the same time, the factor endowment effect lowers the PCI of the North, as the North is relatively well-endowed in capital and pollution-intensive activities are capital intensive. On a global scale, because the bulk of trade is intra-regional with a high North-North share, these effects are small relative to the “deep” determinants of the worldwide PCI. In sum, differences in factor endowments and environmental policies have only marginally affected the PCI of world trade at the end of the eighties.

Inducing Low-Carbon Investment in the Electric Power Industry through a Price Floor for Emissions Trading

01 Sep 2011

Uncertainty about long-term climate policy is a major driving force in the evolution of the carbon market price. Since this price enters the investment decision process of regulated firms, this uncertainty increases the cost of capital for investors and might deter invest-ments into new technologies at the company level. We apply a real options-based approach to assess the impact of climate change policy in the form of a constant or growing price floor on investment decisions of a single firm in a competitive environment. This firm has the opportunity to switch from a high-carbon “dirty” technology to a low-carbon “clean” technology. Using Monte Carlo simulation and dynamic programming techniques for real market data, we determine the optimal CO2 price floor level and growth rate in order to induce investments into the low-carbon technology. We show these findings to be robust to a large variety of input parameter settings.

Equilibri 2011.02 - Povertà e sostenibilità

01 Sep 2011

Il più impegnativo degli «Obiettivi del Millennio» lanciati dall’Assemblea delle Nazioni Unite nel 2000 è quello di ridurre la popolazione mondiale che vive in condizioni di povertà estrema, portandola entro il 2015 alla metà rispetto ai livelli del 1990. Nonostante i notevoli progressi compiuti negli ultimi due decenni, si inizia a dubitare che tale obiettivo possa essere raggiunto in tutte le aree del mondo. I paesi donatori fanno troppo poco? L’obiettivo è troppo ambizioso? Le politiche adottate sono insufficienti? Qual è la via da intraprendere? Sono queste le domande che ci poniamo in questo numero della nostra rivista di fronte alle immagini di un’umanità che soffre e muore di fame e stenti

One of the most difficult «Millennium Goals» launched by the United Nations Assembly in 2000 was to halve, by the year 2015, the proportion of the world’s people who live in extreme poverty, compared to 1990 levels. Despite the progress made in the last two decades, doubts are rising that this goal will be achieved in all areas of the world. Are donor countries doing too little? Is the goal too ambitious? Are the policies adopted insufficient? What must be done? These are the questions raised in this issue of our journal, confronted by the images of suffering and starving people.

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Using the Market to Address Climate Change: Insights from Theory and Experience

16 Aug 2011

Emissions of greenhouse gases linked with global climate change are affected by diverse aspects of economic activity, including individual consumption, business investment, and government spending. An effective climate policy will have to modify the decision calculus for these activities in the direction of more efficient generation and use of energy, lower carbon-intensity of energy, and – more broadly – a more carbon-lean economy. The only approach to doing this on a meaningful scale that would be technically feasible and cost-effective is carbon pricing, that is, market-based climate policies that place a shadow-price on carbon dioxide emissions. We examine alternative designs of three such instruments – carbon taxes, cap-and-trade, and clean energy standards. We note that the U.S. political response to possible market-based approaches to climate policy has been and will continue to be largely a function of issues and structural factors that transcend the scope of environmental and climate policy.

Climate Change and Individual Decision Making: An Examination of Knowledge, Risk Perception, Self-interest and Their Interplay

15 Aug 2011

In this essay, three separate yet interconnected components of pro-environmental decision making are considered: (a) knowledge, in the form of basic scientific understanding and procedural knowledge, (b) risk perception, as it relates to an individual’s direct experience of climate change and (c) self-interest, either monetary or status-driven. Drawing on a variety of sources in public policy, psychology, and economics, I examine the role of these concepts in inducing or discouraging pro-environmental behavior. Past researches have often overemphasized the weight of just one of those variables in the decision making. I argue, instead, that none of them alone is capable of bringing about the behavioral change required by the environmental crisis. Evidence shows that increasing the public’s scientific knowledge of climate change cannot unilaterally bring about a strong behavioral change. The same can be noticed even when knowledge is joined by risk-perception: deep psychological mechanisms may steer people towards inaction and apathy, despite their direct experience of the detrimental effects of climate change on their lives. Focusing on self-interest alone is similarly unable to induce pro-environmental behavior, due to a host of psychological factors. Instead, in all of the above cases an important missing ingredient may be found in providing the public with locally contextualized procedural knowledge in order to translate its knowledge and concern into action. The importance of this kind of practical knowledge has solid empirical and theoretical underpinnings, and is often overlooked in the climate-change debate that tends to focus on more high-level issues. Yet, for all its essential simplicity, it may carry important public-policy implications.

Who Should Bear the Cost of China’s Carbon Emissions Embodied in Goods for Exports?

14 Jul 2011

China’s capital-intensive, export-oriented, spectacular economic growth since launching its open-door policy and economic reforms in late 1978 not only has created jobs and has lifted millions of the Chinese people out of poverty, but also has given rise to unprecedented environmental pollution and CO2 emissions. While estimates of the embedded CO2 emissions in China’s trade differ, both single country studies for China and global studies show a hefty chunk of China’s CO2 emissions embedded in trade. This portion of CO2 emissions had helped to turn China into the world’s largest carbon emitter, and is further widening its gap with the second largest emitter. This raises the issue of who should be responsible for this portion of emissions and bearing the carbon cost of exports. China certainly wants importers to cover some, if not all, of those costs. While China’s stance is understandable, this paper has argued from a broad and balanced perspective that if this is pushed too far, it will not help to find solutions to this issue. On the contrary it can be to China’s disadvantage for a number of reasons. However, aligning this responsibility with China does not necessarily suggest the sole reliance on domestic actions. In that context, the paper recommends specific actions that need to be taken internationally as well as domestically in order to effectively control the embedded CO2 emissions in China’s trade.

The Grand Experiment of Communism: Discovering the Trade-off between Equality and Efficiency

12 Jul 2011

This paper aims to explain the rise and fall of communism by exploring the interplay between economic incentives and social preferences in different economic systems. We introduce inequality-averse and inefficiency-averse agents responding to economic incentives and transmitting their ideology as they are affected by evolving outcomes. We analyze their conflict through the interaction between leaders with economic power and followers with ideological determination. The socioeconomic dynamics of our model generate a pendulum-like switch from markets to a centrally-planned economy abolishing private ownership, and back to restoring market incentives. The grand experiment of communism is thus characterized to have led to the discovery of a trade-o¤ between equality and efficiency at the scale of alternative economic systems.

Adaptation Can Help Mitigation: An Integrated Approach to Post-2012 Climate Policy

10 Jul 2011

The latest round of international negotiations in Copenhagen led to a set of commitments on emission reductions which are unlikely to stabilise global warming below or around 2°C. As a consequence, in the absence of additional ambitious policy measures, adaptation will be needed to address climate-related damages. What is the role of adaptation in this setting? How is it optimally allocated across regions and time? To address these questions, this paper analyses the optimal mix of adaptation and mitigation expenditures in a cost-effective setting in which countries cooperate to achieve a long-term stabilisation target (550 CO2-eq). It uses an Integrated Assessment Model (AD-WITCH) that describes the relationships between different adaptation modes (reactive and anticipatory), mitigation, and capacity-building to analyse the optimal portfolio of adaptation measures. Results show the optimal intertemporal distribution of climate policy measures is characterised by early investments in mitigation followed by large adaptation expenditures a few decades later. Hence, the possibility to adapt does not justify postponing mitigation, although it reduces its costs. Mitigation and adaptation are thus shown to be complements rather than substitutes.

Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

05 Jul 2011

In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several ‘high-level’, transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access – even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%.

Climate Change and Tourism in Tuscany, Italy. What if heat becomes unbearable?

04 Jul 2011

This paper investigates the empirical magnitude of climate conditions on tourist flows in Tuscany, exploring the use of a fine spatial scale analysis. In fact, we explore the use of an 8-year panel dataset of Tuscany’s 254 municipalities, examining how tourist inflows respond to variation in local weather conditions. In particular, as the area enjoys a fairly mild Mediterranean climate, our analysis focused on temperature extremes at key times of the tourist season, i.e., on maximum summer temperature and minimum winter temperature. Separate analyses are conducted for domestic and international tourists, so as to test the differences in the preferences among these distinct groups (or types of demand). Estimation results show the impact of climate change on tourist flows appears to vary significantly among destinations depending on the kind of attractions they offer, and those areas that host the main artistic and historical sights, affecting predominantly the domestic rather than the international tourists.

Sustainable Cooperation in Global Climate Policy: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets to Build on Copenhagen and Cancun

03 Jul 2011

We offer a framework to assign quantitative allocations of emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), across countries, one budget period at a time. Under the two-part plan: (i) China, India, and other developing countries accept targets at Business as Usual (BAU) in the coming budget period, the same period in which the US first agrees to cuts below BAU; and (ii) all countries are asked in the future to make further cuts in accordance with a common numerical formula to all. The formula is expressed as the sum of a Progressive Reductions Factor, a Latecomer Catch-up Factor, and a Gradual Equalization Factor. This paper builds on our previous work in many ways. First we update targets to reflect pledges made by governments after the Copenhagen Accord of December 2010 and confirmed at the Cancun meeting of December 2011. Second, the WITCH model, which we use to project economic and environmental effects of any given set of emission targets, has been refined and updated to reflect economic and technological developments. We include the possibility of emissions reduction from bio energy (BE), carbon capture and storage (CCS), and avoided deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) which is an important component of pledges in several developing countries. Third, we use a Nash criterion for evaluating whether a country’s costs are too high to sustain cooperation.

Autocracies and Development in a Global Economy: A Tale of Two Elites

02 Jul 2011

Data on the growth performances of countries with similar comparative (dis)advantage and political institutions reveal a striking variation across world regions. While some former autocracies such as the East Asian growth miracles have done remarkably well, others such as the Latin American economies have grown at much lower rates. In this paper, we propose a political economy explanation of these diverging paths of development by addressing the preferences of the country’s political elite. We build a theoretical framework where factors of production owned by the political elites differ across countries. In each country, the incumbent autocrat will cater to the preferences of the elites when setting trade policy and the property rights regime. We show how stronger property rights may lead to capital accumulation and labor reallocation to the manufacturing sector. This, in turn, can lead to a shift in the comparative advantage, a decision to open up to trade and an inflow of more productive foreign capital. Consistent with a set of stylised facts on East Asia and Latin America, we argue that strong property rights are crucial for success upon globalization.

Punish and Perish?

01 Jul 2011

The evolution of large-scale cooperation among genetic strangers is a fundamental unanswered question in the social sciences. Behavioral economics has persuasively shown that so called ‘strong reciprocity’ plays a key role in accounting for the endogenous enforcement of cooperation. Insofar as strongly reciprocal players are willing to costly sanction defectors, cooperation flourishes. However, experimental evidence unambiguously indicates that not only defection and strong reciprocity, but also unconditional cooperation is a quantitatively important behavioral attitude. By referring to a prisoner’s dilemma framework where punishment (‘stick’) and rewarding (‘carrot’) options are available, here we show analytically that the presence of cooperators who don’t punish in the population makes altruistic punishment evolutionarily weak. We show that cooperation breaks down and strong reciprocity is maladaptive if costly punishment means ‘punishing defectors’ and, even more so, if it is coupled with costly rewarding of cooperators. In contrast, punishers don’t perish if cooperators, far from being rewarded, are sanctioned. These results, based on an extended notion of strong reciprocity, challenge evolutionary explanations of cooperation that overlook the ‘dark side’ of altruistic behavior.

Clean or “Dirty” Energy: Evidence on a Renewable Energy Resource Curse

29 Jun 2011

The aim of this paper is to provide an assessment of the potential for resource curse in the renewable energy sector. Taking a political economy approach, we analyze the link between public support schemes for renewable energy and the potential scope for rent seeking and corruption. The insights of a model of political influence by interest groups are tested empirically using a panel data of Italian provinces for the period 1990-2007. We find evidence that a curse exists in the case of wind energy, and specifically that: i) criminal association activity increased more in high-wind provinces and especially after the introduction of a more favourable public policy regime and, ii) the expansion of the wind energy sector has been driven by both the wind level and the quality of political institutions, through their effect on criminal association. The analysis points out that in the presence of poor institutions, efficient market-based policies can have an adverse impact. This has important normative implications especially for countries that are characterized by abundant renewable resources and weak institutions, and are thus more susceptible to the private exploitation of public incentives.

Consumption and Precautionary Saving: An Empirical Analysis under Both Financial and Environmental Risks

28 Jun 2011

This paper studies the empirical relationship between consumption and saving under two different sources of uncertainty: financial risk and environmental risk. The analysis is carried out using time series data for six advanced economies in the period 1965-2007. The results support the theoretical conclusions that both financial risk alone and the interaction between financial and environmental risks affect consumption. Moreover, we suggest a solution to some shortcomings which concern the empirical analysis performed with one-argument utility functions. Finally, we provide new estimates of indexes of relative risk aversion and relative prudence, and relative preference of environmental quality.

Safe vs. Fair: A Formidable Trade-off in Tackling Climate Change

27 Jun 2011

Global warming requires a response characterized by forward-looking management of atmospheric carbon and respect for ethical principles. Both safety and fairness must be pursued, and there are severe trade-offs as these are intertwined by the limited headroom for additional atmospheric CO2 emissions. This paper provides a simple numerical mapping at the aggregated level of developed vs. developing countries in which safety and fairness are formulated in terms of cumulative emissions and cumulative per capita emissions respectively. It becomes evident that safety and fairness cannot be achieved simultaneously for strict definitions of both. The paper further posits potential global trading in future cumulative emissions budgets in a world where financial transactions compensate for physical emissions: the safe vs. fair trade-off is less severe but remains formidable. Finally, we explore very large deployments of engineered carbon sinks and show that roughly 1000 GtCO2 of cumulative negative emissions over the century are required to have a significant effect, a remarkable scale of deployment. We also identify the unexplored issue of how such sinks might be treated in sub-global carbon accounting.

PB Annual Report 2010

26 Jun 2011

What a year! 2010 was unlike any other in financial history, and particularly in the history of privatization, in that it saw the largest share offering ever--indeed the largest security offering of any type—as well as the largest initial public offerings in world and in U.S.
history. This year also set records both for the most active quarter ever for initial public offerings (and the second highest annual total) and for the largest annual value of privatization sales ($213.6 billion; €159.9 billion) since the phenomenon of state divestments began over four decades ago. 2010 also witnessed the full emergence of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries as major financial players and the continuing shift of financial power eastwards, towards Asia.
To top off this amazing year, the United States reprised its surprising role as the world’s largest privatizer for the second year running, while China, Brazil, France, Turkey, Poland, and India accounted for ranks two through seven.
As has been true for the past several years, the 27 nations of the European Union accounted for a small minority of the aggregate global number and value of privatization deals during 2010. There were 99 EU privatizations that raised €33.1 billion ($44.2 billion), but this represents only 20.6% of the worldwide total, far below the long-run average EU share of 47.1%.
The relative importance of privatized firms in global markets continued to manifest itself during 2010. In fact, the 150 fully and partially privatized companies in the Financial Times FT 500 list of the world’s 500 most valuable companies had a combined market capitalization of $7.23 trillion (€5.41 trillion) in June 2010. All in all, the future of privatization seems assured. Several EU governments - including Spain, Poland, Britain, Ireland, Portugal, and, especially Greece - have publicly announced plans to launch or continue major privatization programs during 2011 and beyond.

Intellectual Property Rights, Migration, and Diaspora

25 Jun 2011

In this paper we study theoretically and empirically the role of the interaction between skilled migration and intellectual property rights (IPRs) protection in determining innovation in developing countries (South). We show that although emigration from the South may directly result in the well-known concept of brain drain, it also causes a brain gain effect, the extent of which depends on the level of IPRs protection in the sending country. We argue this to come from a diaspora channel through which the knowledge acquired by emigrants abroad can flow back to the South and enhance the skills of the remaining workers there. By increasing the size of the innovation sector and the skill-intensity of emigration, IPRs protection makes it more likely for diaspora gains to dominate, thus facilitating a potential net brain gain. Our main theoretical insights are then tested empirically using a panel dataset of emerging and developing countries. The findings reveal a positive correlation between emigration and innovation in the presence of strong IPRs protection.

Intellectual Property Rights and South-North Formation of Global Innovation Networks

24 Jun 2011

With the rise of the knowledge economy, delivering sound innovation policies requires a thorough understanding of how knowledge is produced and diffused. This paper takes a step to analyze a new form of globalization, the so-called system of Global Innovation Networks (GINs), to shed light on how the protection of intellectual property rights (IPRs) influences their creation and development. We focus on the role of IPR protection in fostering international innovative activities in emerging economies (South), such as China and India, and more generally, how IPRs affect the development of GINs between newly industrialized countries and OECD countries. Using both survey-based firm-level and country-level global data, we find IPRs to be an important determinant of participation in GINS from a Southern perspective. We find IPR protection at home and its harmonization across county pairs foster South-North formation of GINs. We also find that a stringent regime in the destination country discourages foreign international innovative activities that originate in NICs. Both levels of our analysis confirm the ICT industry, particularly the hardware segment, to rely on IPRs when engaging in the international outsourcing and offshoring of innovation or in patenting activities abroad.

Households’ WTP for the Reliability of Gas Supply

23 Jun 2011

The security of natural gas supply is an important issue for all EU countries due to the region’s heavy dependence on imported supply sources and in light of energy demand for gas that is continuously increasing. Discussions have emphasised strategies for securing the supply at the macro level, e.g. diversification in supply sources, increase in storage capacity, etc. By contrast, consumers’ demand for the reliability of gas supply is rarely investigated. Hence this study was conducted to examine the economic implications associated with the security of gas supply directly to domestic consumers. Based on the choice experiment approach, household surveys were conducted in France, Italy and the UK. The results confirmed that the degree of the economic impact of a disruption of gas supply to domestic consumers was a function of the duration of a supply disruption and the season in which a supply cut would take place, as well as other preferences of consumers. The willingness to pay to secure per unit of gas consumption, or alternatively the costs of gas unsupplied, was estimated at between €2.65/cubic metre and €41.48/cubic metre across three different European countries.

Economic Growth and the Environment with Clean and Dirty Consumption

22 Jun 2011

This paper aims to verify the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) or inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation in the context of endogenous growth. An important feature of this study is that the EKC is examined in the presence of pollution as a by product of consumption activities; also, pollution is a stock variable rather than a flow and tends to accumulate over time. In order to highlight the role of consumption on the environment, consumers do not consider directly pollution in the maximization problem and are assumed to choose between two different consumption types, characterized by a different impact on the environment (i.e. dirty and clean consumption). We find that substitution of dirty consumption with clean consumption alone is not sufficient to reduce environmental pollution. The result depends on the product differentiation and the cost to achieve it. From a social welfare perspective, more environmental awareness is unambiguously desirable when it generates less pollution. However, it could be that more environmental awareness leads to a lower level of social welfare depending on the costs of product differentiation and social marginal damage of pollution.

Informing the Financing of Universal Energy Access: An Assessment of Current Flows

21 Jun 2011

Energy poverty is widely recognized as a major obstacle to economic and social development and poverty alleviation. To help inform the design of appropriate and effective policies to reduce energy poverty, we present a brief analysis of the current macro financial flows in the electricity and gas distribution sectors in developing countries. We build on the methodology used to quantify the flows of investment in the climate change area. This methodology relies on national gross fixed capital formation, overseas development assistance, and foreign direct investment. These high-level and aggregated investment figures provide a sense of scale to policy-makers, but are only a small part of the information required to design financial vehicles. In addition, these figures tend to mask numerous variations between sectors and countries, as well as trends and other temporal fluctuations. Nonetheless, for the poorest countries, one can conclude that the current flows are considerably short (at least five times) of what will be required to provide a basic level of access to clean, modern energy services to the “energy poor”.

Exogenous Oil Shocks, Fiscal Policy and Sector Reallocations in Oil Producing Countries

20 Jun 2011

Previous literature has suggested that different mechanisms of transmission of exogenous oil shocks are responsible for the negative effects on the economic performances of oil exporting countries. This paper aims at providing further evidence on the role of sectoral reallocation between private and public sectors in explaining the impact of shocks to oil revenues on the economic growth rates of major oil producing countries (namely the GCC - Gulf Corporation Council - countries). The effects of oil shocks and expansionary fiscal policy on the business cycle of oil producing countries are examined. The possibility to distinguish between various components of public sector spending policy (that is, purchases of consumption goods, investments in productive activities and compensation for public employees) is, in particular, allowed for. A real business cycle (RBC) model is calibrated to fit the data on an “average” oil producing country. Results from the simulation of the theoretical model suggest that the possibility that crowding-out effects of public over private investments can explain a large fraction of the negative effects of shocks to oil revenues on the private sector of the economy. In addition, since the growth in size of the public sector is unable to compensate for the reduction in size of the private sector, an increase in oil revenues has the effect to decrease total output. An expansionary fiscal policy is argued to have significant positive effects on private investments, employment and overall production. On the contrary, a shock to government consumption expenditure impacts negatively the level of public investment. As employment in the public sector increases significantly, public output responds positively to a shock in government consumption expenditure. Finally, an instantaneous negative effect on total investments and on the stock of capital in the economy is predicted. However, driven by the increase of the number of employees in the economy, total output expands.

On the Economic Determinants of Oil Production. Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Evidence for Small Exporting Countries

19 Jun 2011

In this paper, decisions regarding production in oil exporting countries are studied by means of theoretical analysis and empirical investigation. Under the assumptions of exogenous oil prices and world oil demand, we are able to describe the relationship between oil production levels and changes in the conditions in world oil markets. Intertemporal production decisions by a representative oil producer are modelled by means of a partial equilibrium model. In this theoretical model, oil producers are subject to exogenous shocks in world oil demand and prices. Oil companies can change output levels only by incurring a fixed cost. Results from the simulation of this model show a strong relationship between oil production and changes in world oil consumption. On the contrary, the effects of changes in real oil prices on oil production decisions seem to be much lower. Results from the simulation of the theoretical model are then empirically investigated using time-series econometric techniques. The empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that several oil producing countries are characterized by different responses to changes in world oil demand and in real oil prices. For many countries production rapidly adjusts to changes in consumption whereas responses of oil production to innovations in real oil prices are found to be not statistically significant. In addition, when non-linearities in the relationship between exogenous variables and output levels are allowed for, evidence of asymmetric effects of output levels to shocks in demand levels and oil prices is found.

Migration Restrictions and Criminal Behavior: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

18 Jun 2011

We estimate the causal effect of immigrants' legal status on criminal behavior exploiting exogenous variation in migration restrictions across nationalities driven by the last round of the European Union enlargement. Unique individual-level data on a collective clemency bill enacted in Italy five months before the enlargement allow us to compare the post-release criminal record of inmates from new EU member countries with a control group of pardoned inmates from candidate EU member countries. Difference-in-differences in the probability of re-arrest between the two groups before and after the enlargement show that obtaining legal status lowers the recidivism of economically motivated offenders, but only in areas that provide relatively better labor market opportunities to legal immigrants. We provide a search-theoretic model of criminal behavior that is consistent with these results.

Size Monotonicity and Stability of the Core in Hedonic Games

17 Jun 2011

We show that the core of each strongly size monotonic hedonic game is not empty and is externally stable. This is in sharp contrast to other sufficient conditions for core non-emptiness which do not even guarantee the existence of a stable set in such games.

Socioeconomic Factors and Water Quality in California

16 Jun 2011

We investigate the relationships between water quality and socioeconomic factors in California at the county level for the years 1993 to 2006 using 24 water quality indicators coming from seven different types of water bodies. We estimate these relationships using three classes of models: the traditional per capita income-pollution level - Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) - specifications, a more inclusive model containing main socioeconomic variables such as agricultural intensity, land use, ethnic composition, population density and educational attainment, and a model that includes the socioeconomic variables while accounting for spatial correlations too. For most water quality indicators, we do not find support for EKC specifications. For pollutants like phosphorus and total suspended solids, the level of agricultural activity is a significant determinant of water quality in California, but for other surface water pollutants commonly considered agricultural pollutants, such as ammonia and nitrate, the level of agricultural activity is not statistically significant. We find that education, ethnic composition, age structure, land use, population density, and water area are all significantly correlated with various indicators of water quality.

Estimating Ricardian Models With Panel Data

15 Jun 2011

Many nonmarket valuation models, such as the Ricardian model, have been estimated using cross sectional methods with a single year of data. Although multiple years of data should increase the robustness of such methods, repeated cross sections suggest the results are not stable. We argue that repeated cross sections do not properly specify the model. Panel methods that correctly specify the Ricardian model are stable over time. The results suggest that many cross sectional methods including hedonic studies and travel cost studies could be enhanced using panel data.

Breaking the Impasse in International Climate Negotiations: A New Direction for Currently Flawed Negotiations and a Roadmap for China to 2050

11 Jun 2011

China’s unilateral pledge to cut its carbon intensity by 40-45 percent by 2020 relative to its 2005 levels raises both the stringency issue, and given that China’s pledge is in the form of carbon intensity, reliability issues concerning China’s statistics on energy and GDP. Moreover, as long as China’s commitments differ in form from those of other major greenhouse gas emitters, China is constantly confronted with both criticism on its carbon intensity commitment being less stringent and the threats of trade measures. In response to these concerns and to put China in a positive position, this paper will map out a realistic roadmap for China’s specific climate commitments towards 2050, with its main distinguishing features including China taking on absolute emission caps around 2030 and the three transitional periods of increasing climate obligations before that. With current international climate negotiations flawed with a focus on commitments on the targeted date of 2020 that does not accommodate well the world’s two largest greenhouse gas emitters, the paper suggests a new direction to break the current impasse in international climate negotiations.

Renewable Energy Subsidies: Second-Best Policy or Fatal Aberration for Mitigation?

10 Jun 2011

This paper evaluates the consequences of renewable energy policies on welfare, resource rents and energy costs in a world where carbon pricing is imperfect and the regulator seeks to limit emissions to a (cumulative) target. We use a global general equilibrium model with an intertemporal fossil resource sector. We calculate the optimal second-best renewable energy subsidy and compare the resulting welfare level with an efficient first-best carbon pricing policy. If carbon pricing is permanently missing, mitigation costs increase by a multiple (compared to the optimal carbon pricing policy) for a wide range of parameters describing extraction costs, renewable energy costs, substitution possibilities and normative attitudes. Furthermore, we show that small deviations from the second-best subsidy can lead to strong increases in emissions and consumption losses. This confirms the rising concerns about the occurrence of unintended side effects of climate policy { a new version of the green paradox. We extend our second-best analysis by considering two further types of policy instruments: (1) temporary subsidies that are displaced by carbon pricing in the long run and (2) revenue-neutral instruments like a carbon trust and a feed-in-tariff scheme. Although these instruments cause small welfare losses, they have the potential to ease distributional conflicts as they lead to lower energy prices and higher fossil resource rents than the optimal carbon pricing policy.

Super-Grids and Concentrated Solar Power: A Scenario Analysis with the WITCH Model

07 Jun 2011

We extend the WITCH model to consider the possibility to produce and trade electricity generated by large scale concentrated solar power plants in highly productive areas that are connected to the demand centres through High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) cables. We find that it becomes optimal to produce with this source only from 2040 and trade from 2050. In the second half of the century, CSP electricity shares become very significant especially when penetration limits are imposed on nuclear power and on carbon capture and storage operations (CCS). Climate policy costs can be reduced by large percentages, up to 66% with respect to corresponding scenarios without the CSP-powered Super-Grid option and with limits on nuclear power and CCS. We also show that MENA countries have the incentive to form a cartel to sell electricity to Europe at a price higher than the marginal cost. Therefore we advocate the institution of an international agency with the role to regulate a hypothetic Mediterranean electricity market.

The Effect of Spillovers and Congestion on the Segregative Properties of Endogenous Jurisdiction Structure Formation

06 Jun 2011

This paper analyzes the effect of spillovers and congestion of local public goods on the segregative properties of endogenous formation of jurisdiction. Households living in the same place form a jurisdiction and produce a local public good, that creates positive spillovers in other jurisdictions and suffers from congestion. In every jurisdiction, the production of the local public good is financed through a local tax on household's wealth. Local wealth tax rates are democratically determined in all jurisdictions. Households also consume housing in their jurisdiction. Any household is free to leave its jurisdiction for another one that would increase its utility. A necessary and sufficient condition to have every stable jurisdiction structure segregated by wealth, for a large class of congestion measure and any spillovers coefficient structure, is identified: the public good must be a gross substitute or a gross complement to the private good and the housing.

Myopic or Farsighted? An Experiment on Network Formation

30 May 2011

Pairwise stability (Jackson and Wolinsky, 1996) is the standard stability concept in network formation. It assumes myopic behavior of the agents in the sense that they do not forecast how others might react to their actions. Assuming that agents are farsighted, related stability concepts have been proposed. We design a simple network formation experiment to test these theories. Our results provide support for farsighted stability and strongly reject the idea of myopic behavior.

Dynamic Multilateral Markets

23 May 2011

We study dynamic multilateral markets, in which players’ payoffs result from coalitional bargaining. In this setting, we establish payoff uniqueness of the stationary equilibria when players exhibit some degree of impatience. We focus on market games with different player types, and derive under mild conditions an explicit formula for each type’s equilibrium payoff as market frictions vanish. The limit payoff of a type depends in an intuitive way on the supply and the demand for this type in the market, adjusted by the type-specific bargaining power. Our framework may be viewed as an alternative to the Walrasian price-setting mechanism. When we apply this methodology to the analysis of labor markets, we can determine endogenously the equilibrium firm size and remuneration scheme. We find that each worker type in a stationary market equilibrium is rewarded her marginal product, i.e. we obtain a strategic underpinning of the neoclassical wage. Interestingly, we can also replicate some standardized facts from the search-theoretical literature such as positive equilibrium unemployment.

Strategic Network Interdiction

22 May 2011

We develop a strategic model of network interdiction in a non-cooperative game of flow. An adversary, endowed with a bounded quantity of bads, chooses a flow specifying a plan for carrying bads through a network from a base to a target. Simultaneously, an agency chooses a blockage specifying a plan for blocking the transport of bads through arcs in the network. The bads carried to the target cause a target loss while the blocked arcs cause a network loss. The adversary earns and the agency loses from both target loss and network loss. The adversary incurs the expense of carrying bads. In this model we study Nash equilibria and find a power law relation between the probability and the extent of the target loss. Our model contributes to the literature of game theory by introducing non-cooperative behavior into a Kalai-Zemel (cooperative) game of flow. Our research also advances models and results on network interdiction.

Alliance Formation and Coercion in Networks

21 May 2011

This paper presents a game-theoretic model of network formation, which allows agents to enter bilateral alliances and to extract payoffs from enemies. Each pair of agents creates a surplus of one, which allies divide in equal parts. If agents are enemies, then the agent with more allies obtains a larger share of the surplus. I show that Nash equilibria are of two types. First, a state of utopia, where all agents are allies. Second, asymmetric equilibria, such that agents can be partitioned into sets of different size, where agents within the same set are allies and agents in different sets are enemies. These results stand in contrast to coalition formation games in the economics of conflict literature, where stable group structures are generally symmetric. The model provides a game-theoretic foundation for structural balance, a long- standing notion in social psychology, which has been fruitfully applied to the study of alliance formation in international relations.

A Measure to Compare Matchings in Marriage Markets

20 May 2011

In matching markets the number of blocking pairs is often used as a criterion to compare matchings. We argue that this criterion is lacking an economic interpretation: In many circumstances it will neither reflect the expected extent of partner changes, nor will it capture the satisfaction of the players with the matching. As an alternative, we set up two principles which single out a particularly “disruptive” subcollection of blocking pairs. We propose to take the cardinality of that subset as a measure to compare matchings. This cardinality has an economic interpretation: the subset is a justified objection against the given matching according to a bargaining set characterization of the set of stable matchings. We prove multiple properties relevant for a workable measure of comparison.

Towards the Optimal Management of the Northeast Arctic Cod Fishery

17 May 2011

The objectives pursued by governments managing fisheries may include maximizing profits, minimizing the impact on the marine ecosystem, or securing employment, which all require adjusting the composition of the fishing fleet. We develop a management plan that can be adapted to those objectives and allows the regulator to compare the long-run profits between the various management options. We apply the model to the case of Northeast Arctic cod, and estimate the cost and harvesting functions of various vessel types, the demand function, and a biological model to provide key insights regarding the optimal management of this valuable fish species.

A Global Map of Costal Recreation Values: Results From a Spatially Explicit Based Meta-Analysis

16 May 2011

The welfare dimension of the recreational services provided by global coastal ecosystems is examined through a meta-analytical regression-based valuation approach. First, we construct a global, state-of-the-art database of stated and revealed preference estimates on coastal recreation, which includes also the grey literature and with the latest entry updated to February 2010. Second, the profile of each of the 253 observations of our dataset, which correspond to individual value estimates, was further enriched with characteristics of the built coastal environment (site accessibility, anthropogenic pressure, level of human development), characteristics of the natural coastal environment (presence of protected area, type of ecosystem, and marine biodiversity richness), geo-climatic factors (temperature and precipitation), as well as sociopolitical characteristics, such as the political stability index. In this context, the proposed meta-analytical valuation exercise explores the spatially explicit dimension of the values building upon Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. GIS are relied upon for the spatial characterization of the valued ecosystems, the determination of the role of spatially explicit variables in the meta analytical value transfer model, as well as for the value transfer exercise. The GIS characterization is observed to be extremely significant in explaining the spatial diversity of the estimates values and underlying explanatory factors. The resulting integrated valuation framework constitutes a worldwide première and it results in the first global map of the recreational value of coastal ecosystems. We argue that the presented global map may play an important role in studying the prioritization for the conservation of coastal areas from a social perspective.

Are Preferences for Environmental Quality Sensitive to Financial Funding Schemes? Evidence from a Marine Restoration Programme in the Black Sea

15 May 2011

This paper uses a non-market valuation study to elicit consumers’ preferences for a marine restoration programme in the Black Sea aiming to reduce the level of public health risk from bathing and improve water quality and the overall level of marine biodiversity. In this context, we administer a stated choice experiment in coastal settlements in Ukraine and Turkey and employ two tax revenue reallocation schemes as payment vehicles. One proposes the financing of the marine restoration programme by the reduction of the public budget for renewable energy and the second by the reduction of the public budget on training for civil servants. We examine the stated preferences and the subsequently derived economic value estimates in the two treatments with the aim to investigate whether the trade-off implied by the funding scheme has implications for the valuation outcome. Results reveal that preferences and marginal rates of substitution between the non-price attributes under consideration differ significantly. In the civil servants’ budget reallocation scheme, the reallocation coefficient is positive, implying that ceteris paribus redistribution of public financial resources from this source is utility-enhancing. The magnitude of the results differs in the two considered countries mirroring their heterogeneity in political and cultural dimensions.

Equilibri 2011.01 - Verso Durban

13 May 2011

In attesa del prossimo vertice di Durban a fine anno, l’attenzione è oggi rivolta agli impegni di riduzione delle emissioni su base volontaria presi a Cancún dai paesi sviluppati e dalle aperture mostrate da due paesi energivori come la Cina e l’India. In questo numero, i ricercatori della FEEM presentano significativi contributi sulle questioni sollevate negli ultimi vertici sul clima. I lavori coprono sia la valutazione delle diverse politiche su clima e sostenibilità, sia l’analisi delle implicazioni economiche dei diversi scenari di mitigazione e di adattamento.

The 2011 summit meeting in Durban will be focused on the voluntary commitments for emission reductions made in Cancún by developed countries, and on the approach of two energy-intensive countries - China and India. In this issue of Equilibri, FEEM researchers present significant contributions on the issues raised during recent climate negotiations. Their articles range from the assessment of different climate and sustainability policies to the analysis of the economic implications of the different mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

Download the Table of Contents, Short Abstracts and Editorial

Biofuel Economics in a Setting of Multiple Objectives & Unintended Consequences

11 May 2011

This paper examines biofuels from an economic perspective and evaluates the merits of promoting biofuel production in the context of the policies’ multiple objectives, life-cycle implications, pecuniary externalities, and other unintended consequences. The policy goals most often cited are to reduce fossil fuel use and to lower greenhouse gas emissions. But the presence of multiple objectives and various indirect effects complicates normative evaluation. To address some of these complicating factors, we look at several combinations of policy alternatives that achieve the same set of incremental gains along the two primary targeted policy dimensions, making it possible to compare the costs and cost-effectiveness of each combination of policies. For example, when this approach is applied to U.S.-produced biofuels, they are found to be 14 to 31 times as costly as alternatives like raising the gas tax or promoting energy efficiency improvements. The analysis also finds the scale of the potential contributions of biofuels to be extremely small in both the U.S. and EU. Mandated U.S. corn ethanol production for 2025 reduces U.S. petroleum input use by 1.75%, and would have negligible net effects on CO2 emissions; and although EU imports of Brazilian ethanol may look better given the high costs of other alternatives, this option is equivalent, at most, to a 1.20% reduction in EU gasoline consumption.

Smart Meter Devices and The Effect of Feedback on Residential Electricity Consumption: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Northern Ireland

10 May 2011

Using a unique set of data and exploiting a large-scale natural experiment, we estimate the effect of real-time usage information on residential electricity consumption in Northern Ireland. Starting in April 2002, the utility replaced prepayment meters with “smart” meters that allow the consumer to track usage in real-time. We rely on this event, account for the endogeneity of price and plan with consumption through a plan selection correction term, and find that the provision of information is associated with a decline in electricity consumption of up to 20%. We find that the reduction is robust to different specifications, selection-bias correction methods and subsamples of the original data. At £15-17 per tonne of CO2e (2009£), the smart meter program delivers cost-effective reductions in carbon dioxide emissions.

International Environmental Agreements in the Presence of Adaptation

07 Apr 2011

We show that adaptive measures undertaken by countries in the face of climate change, apart from directly reducing the damage caused by climate change, may also indirectly mitigate greenhouse gas emissions by increasing the stable size of international agreements on emission reductions. Moreover, we show that the more effective the adaptive measure in terms of reducing the marginal damage from emissions, the larger the stable size of the international environmental agreement. In addition, we show that larger coalitions, in the presence of adaptation, may lead to lower global emission levels and higher welfare.

Civil Liability, Safety and Nuclear Parks: Is Concentrated Management Better?

06 Apr 2011

Ultra-hazardous risky activities as nuclear industry cannot be considered as “normal industries” i.e. industries without abnormal environmental and health risks. Consequently, the industrial organization of these specific sectors is of the utmost importance. This paper aims at studying this question. We focus on the associated costs of prevention and civil liability. We analyze how civil liability rules may contribute to extend or to discourage the expansion of nuclear parks to new operators. The paper compares the consequences of extending the management of nuclear stations to several independent operators. This question can apply to the unification process of the European electricity market in which several public and private nuclear power operators are running. The paper shows that the choice between either a monopolistic scheme (one operator managing several plants) or a decentralized one (one operator by station) depends on the condition of application of the legal civil liability regime and on the strength of the safety control exerted by the Nuclear Regulatory Authorities. It is shown that when the control is high, then the safety costs generated by the monopolistic organization are less than the same costs of a decentralized one. However, conditions on the insurance policy can mitigate this result.

Market Equilibrium in the Presence of Green Consumers and Responsible Firms: a Comparative Statics Analysis

05 Apr 2011

This paper analyzes how the interaction between green consumers and responsible firms affects the market equilibrium. The main result is that a higher responsibility by both producers and consumers can have different impacts on the efficiency of the firms’ abatement activity, depending on the nature of the cleaning costs. When the abatement costs are fixed, the efficiency of the clean-up effort is always increasing in their degree of responsibility. On the other hand, when the abatement costs are variable, a higher level of responsibility may reduce social welfare. Finally, the first best allocation is never reached, even in the presence of the highest credible level of responsibility of both consumers and producers.

Environmental Regulations, Market Structure and Technological Progress in Renewable Energy Technology — A Panel Data Study on Wind Turbines

04 Apr 2011

We study the impact of environmental regulations on the patent activities for wind turbines between 1980 and 2008. We explicitly control for energy market liberalisation and take a potential interaction between liberalisation and policy instruments into account. We find a strong and highly significant effect of environmental tax revenues, which we regard as a proxy for the extent to which energy prices changed in favour of renewable energies, as well as foreign demand for wind turbines on innovation activities. In addition, we find that price-based policy instruments are more effective in fostering innovations in the wind turbine technology when energy markets are fully open to competition. In contrast, non-price-based policy instruments such as grants or low interest rate loans are largely independent from whether or not energy markets are liberalised.

How to Measure Carbon Equity: Carbon Gini Index Based on Historical Cumulative Emission Per Capita

03 Apr 2011

This paper uses Lorenz Curve and Gini Index with adjustment to per capita historical cumulative emission and constructs Carbon Gini Index to measure inequality in climate change area. The analysis using Carbon Gini Index shows that 70% of carbon space in the atmosphere has been used for unequal distribution, which is almost the same as that of income in the country with the biggest gap between rich and poor in the world. The carbon equity should be an urgency and priority in the climate agenda. Carbon Gini Index established in this paper can be used to measure inequality in the distribution of carbon space and provide a quantified indicator for measurement of carbon equity among different proposals.

Environmental Security and its Implications for China’s Foreign Relations

04 Feb 2011

China’s emerging standing in the world demands a major rethinking of its diplomatic strategies. Given its population size, geographical scale, economic power and military presence, China is poised to play a larger political role in the twenty-first century, and is thus perceived by the international community to have greater capacities, capabilities and responsibilities. At the same time, environmental stresses caused by China’s energy and resources demands have become increasingly evident in recent years, urging China to cultivate delicate diplomatic relations with its neighbors and strategic partners. Tensions have been seen in areas such as transboundary air pollution, cross-border water resources management and resources exploitation, and more recently in global issues such as climate change. As the Chinese leadership begins to embrace the identity of a responsible developing country, it is becoming apparent that while unabated resources demands and environmental deterioration may pose a great threat to environmental security, a shared sense of urgency could foster enhanced cooperation. For China to move beyond existing and probable diplomatic tensions, a greater attention to domestic and regional environmental security will no doubt be necessary. This article explores such interrelations among domestic, regional and global environmental securities and China’s diplomacy, and suggests possible means by which China could contribute to strengthening global environmental security.

Inflationary Effect of Oil-Price Shocks in an Imperfect Market: A Partial Transmission Input-output Analysis

03 Feb 2011

This paper aims to examine the impacts of oil-price shocks on China’s price levels. To that end, we develop a partial transmission input-output model that captures the uniqueness of the Chinese market. We hypothesize and simulate price control, market factors and technology substitution - the three main factors that restrict the functioning of a price pass-through mechanism during oil-price shocks. Using the models of both China and the U.S., we separate the impact of price control from those of other factors leading to China’s price stickiness under oil-price shocks. The results show a sharp contrast between China and the U.S., with price control in China significantly preventing oil-price shocks from spreading into its domestic inflation, especially in the short term. However, in order to strengthen the economy’s resilience to oil-price shocks, the paper suggests a gradual relaxing of price control in China.

Optimal Mechanisms for Heterogeneous Multi-cell Aquifers

02 Feb 2011

Standard economic models of groundwater management impose restrictive assumptions regarding perfect transmissivity (i.e., the aquifer behaves as a bathtub), no external effects of groundwater stocks, observability of individual extraction rates, and/or homogenous agents. In this article, we derive regulatory mechanisms for inducing the socially optimal extraction path in Markov perfect equilibrium for aquifers in which these assumptions do not hold. In spite of the complexity of the underlying system, we identify an interesting case in which a simple linear mechanism achieves the social optimum. To illustrate potential problems that can arise by erroneously imposing simplifying assumptions, we conduct a simulation based on data from the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh.

Optimal Mechanisms for Heterogeneous Multi-cell Aquifers

02 Feb 2011

A Century of American Economic Review

01 Feb 2011

Using information collected from American Economic Review publications of the last 100 years, we try to provide answers to various questions: Which are the top AER publishing institutions and countries? Which are the top AER papers based on citation success? How frequently is someone able to publish in AER? How equally is citation success distributed? Who are the top AER publishing authors? What is the level of cooperation among the authors? What drives the alphabetical name ordering? What are the individual characteristics of the AER authors, editors, editorial board members, and referees? How frequently do women publish in AER? What is the relationship between academic age, publication performance, and citation success? What are the paper characteristics? What influences the level of technique used in articles? Do connections have an influence on citation success? Who receives awards? Can awards increase the probability of publishing in AER at a later stage?

Optimal Exploitation of Groundwater and the Potential for a Tradable Permit System in Irrigated Agriculture

30 Jan 2011

A great challenge facing future agricultural water policy is to explore the potential for transition from the current myopic competitive (common) exploitation of groundwater resources to a long-term efficient and sustainable allocation. A number of economic and/or command and control instruments can be used by the relevant water authority in order to deal with the economic and environmental problems generated by competitive exploitation. However, according to previous experience in both developed and developing countries, tradable permits seem as one of the most effective and efficient instruments, especially under conditions of limited water availability. On this account, the aim of the current study is to explore the feasibility and implementation of a tradable permit system in irrigated agriculture. To this end, two distinct optimization models are applied and compared: (a) an individual farmer’s model (representing the myopic non-cooperative exploitation of groundwater) and (b) a social planner’s model (representing the cooperative and sustainable allocation). The deviation of their results shows the rationale for using a tradable permit system, while the final allocation of the social planner’s model, solved as an optimal control problem that maximizes the social welfare under specific water policy objectives, denotes the equilibrium state of this system. The two models are then applied in a typical rural area of Greece where groundwater is the only source of irrigated agriculture. The derived time paths for water consumption and water availability illustrate the significant environmental benefits from the future implementation of a tradable permit system.

Abatement Technology and the Environment-Growth Nexus with Education

29 Jan 2011

This article challenges the conventional result that a tighter environmental tax has no long-run effect on human capital accumulation in the presence of pollution arising from final output production. It demonstrates that the technology used in the abatement sector determines the existence and the direction of the growth-effect. A tighter environmental tax rises (respectively reduces) human capital accumulation in the presence of pollution arising from final production, if the abatement sector is relatively more intensive in human (resp. physical) capital than final sector. That result always holds for finite lifetime but for infinite lifetime it only holds when labor supply is endogenous. The transitional impact of a tighter environmental policy is also investigated.

A Tale of Two Countries: Emissions Scenarios for China and India

27 Jan 2011

The aim of the paper is to present evidence that China and India are, and will remain, two very different actors in international negotiations to control global warming. We base our conclusions on historical data and on scenarios until 2050. The Business-as-Usual scenario (BaU) is compared to four Emissions Tax scenarios to draw insights on major transformations in energy use and in energy supply and to assess the possible contribution of China and India to a future international climate architecture. We study whether or not the Copenhagen intensity targets require more action than the BaU scenario and we assess whether the emissions reductions induced by the four tax scenarios are compatible with the G8 and MEF pledge to reduce global emissions by 50% in 2050.

A Tale of Two Countries: Emissions Scenarios for China and India

27 Jan 2011

Corruption and Environmental Policy: An Alternative Perspective

26 Jan 2011

We construct an overlapping generations model in which agents live through two periods; childhood and adulthood. Each agent makes choices only as an adult, based on her utility that depends on her own consumption and the human capital and environmental quality endowed to her offspring. Entering adulthood, agents choose randomly between two occupations: citizens and politicians. Citizens are the only producers of a single good and choose the proportion of their income to declare to the tax authorities. Politicians decide upon the allocation of the tax revenue between environmental protection and education activities, taking as given the rates of peculation in each activity. In this context, two self-fulfilling stable equilibria can emerge, one associated with high and another with low corruption. Corrupted politicians induce high levels of tax evasion, reducing total public funds and thus environmental protection activities. This result is in accordance with existing empirical evidence and implies that environmental policies may fail in corrupt countries where they are used as means of supporting rent seeking activities instead of protecting the environment. A higher level political authority could intervene and force the low corruption equilibrium by choosing the appropriate tax rate and, through institutional changes, the rates of peculation.

A Trend Deduction Model of Fluctuating Oil Prices

25 Jan 2011

Crude oil prices have been fluctuating over time and by a large range. It is the disorganization of oil price series that makes it difficult to deduce the changing trends of oil prices in the middle- and long-terms and predict their price levels in the short-term. Following a price-state classification and state transition analysis of changing oil prices from January 2004 to April 2010, this paper first verifies that the observed crude oil price series during the soaring period follow a Markov Chain. Next, the paper deduces the changing trends of oil prices by the limit probability of a Markov Chain. We then undertake a probability distribution analysis and find that the oil price series have a log-normality distribution. On this basis, we integrate the two models to deduce the changing trends of oil prices from the short-term to the middle- and long-terms, thus making our deduction academically sound. Our results match the actual changing trends of oil prices, and show the possibility of re-emerging soaring oil prices.

Hazardous Activities and Civil Strict Liability: The Regulator’s Dilemma

24 Jan 2011

This paper addresses the conditions for setting up strict civil liability schemes. For that it compares the social efficiency of two main civil liability regimes usually enforced to protect the environment: the strict liability regime and the “capped strict liability scheme”. First, it shows that the regulator faces an effective dilemma when he has to enforce one of these schemes. This because the social cost of a severe harm (and the associated optimum care effort) is determined independently of any liability regime. This independency has economic consequences. First, victims and polluters pit one against another about the liability regime that the government should enforce. Hence, financially constrained polluters prefer the ceiling of responsibilities while victims wish to extend the amount of redress under a “standard” strict liability. Economic criteria for enforcing a regime rather than another one are lacking. Second, the paper shows that implementing civil strict liability rules may be done by setting up care standards as for instance in the nuclear or the maritime sectors and demanding to the injurers to comply with them. We show that this goal can be achieved by resorting to some friendly monitoring corresponding to frequent random controls with low fines rather than few controls that should involve heavy fines.

Environmental Innovations, Local Networks and Internationalization

22 Jan 2011

This paper investigates the drivers of the environmental innovations (EI) introduced by firms in local production systems (LPS). The role of firm network relationships, agglomeration economies and internationalization strategies is analysed for a sample of 555 firms in the Emilia-Romagna region, North-East of Italy. Cooperating with ‘qualified’ local actors – i.e. universities and suppliers – is the most important driver of EI for most firms, along with their training policies and IT innovations. The role of agglomeration economies is less clear and seems to depend on the EI propensity of more locally oriented firms playing in district areas, which might even turn agglomeration into dis-economies. Networking effects and agglomeration economies are instead found to strongly promote the adoption of EI by multinational firms, thus highlighting the importance of local-global interactions. We provide some interesting findings for particular kinds of challenging EI in fields as CO2 abatement and ISO labelling, generally extending the analysis EI driver by joining local and international factors.

Efficiency, Productivity and Environmental Policy: A Case Study of Power Generation in the EU

21 Jan 2011

This study uses the EU public power generating sector as a case study to investigate the environmental efficiency and productivity enhancing performance of the European Union’s CO2 Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) in its pilot phase. Using Data Envelopment Analysis methods, we measure the environmental efficiency and the productivity growth registered in public power generation across the EU over the 1996-2007 period. In the second stage of our analysis we attempt to explain changes in productivity and efficiency over time using state-of-the-art econometric techniques. Our analysis suggests two conclusions: on the one hand carbon pricing led to an increase in environmental efficiency and to a shift outwards of the technological frontier; on the other hand, the overly generous allocation of emission permits had a negative impact on both measures. These results are shown to be robust to changes in controls and specifications.

Pollution Control with Uncertain Stock Dynamics: When, and How, to be Precautious

20 Jan 2011

The precautionary principle (PP) applied to environmental policy stipulates that, in the presence of uncertainty, society must take robust preventive action to guard against worst-case outcomes. It follows that the higher the degree of uncertainty, the more aggressive this preventive action should be. This normative maxim is explored in the case of a stylized dynamic model of pollution control with uncertain (in the Knightian sense) stock dynamics, using the robust control framework of Hansen and Sargent [12]. Optimal investment in damage control is found to be increasing in the degree of uncertainty, thus confirming the conventional PP wisdom. Optimal mitigation decisions, however, need not always comport with the PP. In particular, when damage-control investment is both sufficiently cheap and sensitive to changes in uncertainty, damage-control investment and mitigation may act as substitutes and a PP with respect to the latter can be unambiguously irrational. The theoretical results are consequently applied to a linear-quadratic model of climate change calibrated by Karp and Zhang [20]. The analysis suggests that a reversal of the PP with respect to mitigation, while theoretically possible, is very unlikely.

Pollution Control with Uncertain Stock Dynamics: When, and How, to be Precautious

20 Jan 2011

Effective Environmental Protection in the Context of Government Decentralization

19 Jan 2011

China has shifted control over resources and decision making to local governments and enterprises as the result of the economic reforms over the past three decades. This devolution of decision-making to local levels and enterprises has placed environmental stewardship in the hands of local officials and polluting enterprises who are more concerned with economic growth and profits than the environment. Therefore, effective environmental protection needs their full cooperation. Against this background, this paper discusses a variety of tactics that China’s central government has been using to incentivize local governments, and a number of market-based instruments, supporting economic policies, environmental performance ratings and disclosure and cooperation with financial institutions to promote long-lasting, improved corporate energy-saving and environmental performance. It concludes that there is a clear need to carefully examine those objective and subjective factors that lead to the lack of local official’s cooperation on the environment, and provides some suggestions for appropriated incentives to get their cooperation.

Energy and Climate Change in China

17 Jan 2011

The paper examines future energy and emissions scenarios in China, presenting historical data and scenarios generated using the Integrated Assessment Model WITCH. A Business-as-Usual scenario is compared with four scenarios in which Greenhouse Gases emissions are taxed, at different levels. Key insights are provided to evaluate the Chinese pledge to reduce the emissions intensity of Gross Domestic Product by 40/45 percent in 2020 contained in the Copenhagen Accord. Marginal and total abatement costs are discussed using the OECD economies as a term of comparison. Cost estimates for different emissions reduction targets are used to assess the political feasibility of the 50 percent global reduction target set by the G8 and Major Economies Forum in July 2009.

How CO2 Capture and Storage Can Mitigate Carbon Leakage

15 Jan 2011

Most CO2 abatement policies reduce the demand for fossil fuels and therefore their price in international markets. If these policies are not global, this price decrease raises emissions in countries without CO2 abatement policies, generating “carbon leakage”. On the other hand, if the countries which abate CO2 emissions are net fossil fuel importers, they benefit from this price decrease, which reduces the abatement cost. In contrast, CO2 capture and storage (CCS) does not reduce fossil fuel demand, therefore it generates neither this type of leakage nor this negative feedback on abatement costs. We quantify these effects with the global hybrid general equilibrium model Imaclim-R and show that they are quantitatively important. Indeed, for a given unilateral abatement in OECD countries, leakage is more than halved in a scenario with CCS included among the abatement options, compared to a scenario prohibiting CCS. We show that the main reason for this difference in leakage is the above-mentioned international fossil fuel price feedback. This article does not intend to assess the desirability of CCS, which has many other pros and cons. It just identifies a consequence of CCS that should be taken into account, together with many others, when deciding to what extent CCS should be developed.

Optimal Emission Policy under the Risk of Irreversible Pollution

14 Jan 2011

We consider an optimal consumption and pollution problem that has two important features. Environmental damages due to economic activities may be irreversible and the level
at which the degradation becomes irreversible is unknown. Particular attention is paid to the situation where agents are relatively impatient and/or do not care a lot about the environment and/or Nature regenerates at low rate. We show that the optimal policy of the uncertain problem drives the economy in the long run toward a steady state while, when ignoring irreversibility, the economy follows a balanced growth path accompanied by a perpetual decrease in environmental quality and consumption, both asymptotically converging toward zero. Therefore, accounting for the risk of irreversibility induces more conservative decisions regarding consumption and polluting emissions. In general, however, we cannot rule out situations where the economy will optimally follow an irreversible path and consequently, will also be left, in the long run, with an irreversibly degraded environment.

Contracting for Impure Public Goods: Carbon Offsets and Additionality

13 Jan 2011

Governments contracting with private agents for the provision of an impure public good must contend with agents who would potentially supply the good absent any payments. This additionality problem is centrally important in the use of carbon offsets as part of climate change mitigation. Analyzing optimal contracts for forest carbon sequestration, an important offset category, we conduct a national-scale simulation using results from an econometric model of land-use change. The results indicate that for an increase in forest area of 50 million acres, annual government expenditures with optimal contracts are about $4 billion lower compared than under a uniform subsidy.

The Value of Terroir: Hedonic Estimation of Vineyard Sale Prices

12 Jan 2011

We examine the value of terroir, which refers to the special characteristics of a place that impart unique qualities to the wine produced. We do this by conducting a hedonic analysis of vineyard sales in the Willamette Valley of Oregon to ascertain whether site attributes, such as slope, aspect, elevation, and soil types, or designated appellations are more important determinants of price. We find that prices are strongly determined by sub-AVA appellation designations, but not by specific site attributes. These results indicate that the concept of terroir matters economically, although the reality of terroir – as proxied for by locational attributes – is not significant.

Efficiency under a Combination of Ordinal and Cardinal Information on Preferences

10 Jan 2011

Consider a collection of m indivisible objects to be allocated to n agents, where m ≥ n. Each agent falls in one of two distinct categories: either he (a) has a complete ordinal ranking over the set of individual objects, or (b) has a set of “plausible” benchmark von Neumann-Morgenstern (vNM) utility functions in whose non-negative span his “true” utility is known to lie. An allocation is undominated if there does not exist a preference-compatible profile of vNM utilities at which it is Pareto dominated by another feasible allocation. Given an undominated allocation, we use the tools of linear duality theory to construct a profile of vNM utilities at which it is ex-ante welfare maximizing. A finite set of preference-compatible vNM utility profiles is exhibited such that every undominated allocation is ex-ante welfare maximizing with respect to at least one of them. Given an arbitrary allocation, we provide an interpretation of the constructed vNM utilities as subgradients of a function which measures worst-case domination.

Efficiency under a Combination of Ordinal and Cardinal Information on Preferences

10 Jan 2011

Efficiency Improving Fossil Fuel Technologies for Electricity Generation: Data Selection and Trends

09 Jan 2011

This paper studies innovation dynamics in efficiency improving electricity generation technologies as an important means of mitigating climate change impacts. Relevant patents are identified and used as an indicator of innovation. We find that patenting in efficiency improving technologies has mostly been stable over time, with a recent decreasing trend. We also find that majority of patents are first filed in OECD countries and only then in non-OECD or BRIC countries. Conversely, non-OECD and BRIC countries apply for patents that are mostly marketed domestically. This result shows that there is significant technology transfer in the field of efficiency improving technologies for electricity production. This flow of know-how is likely to contribute to mitigation of greenhouse gases emissions in emerging economies in the long run.

Efficiency Improving Fossil Fuel Technologies for Electricity Generation: Data Selection and Trends

09 Jan 2011

Corruption and Social Interaction: Evidence from China

08 Jan 2011

We explore theoretically and empirically whether social interaction, including local and global interaction, influences the incidence of corruption. We first present an interaction-based model on corruption that predicts that the level of corruption is positively associated with social interaction. Then we empirically verify the theoretical prediction using within-country evidence at the province-level in China during 1998 to 2007. Panel data evidence clearly indicates that social interaction has a statistically significantly positive effect on the corruption rate in China. Our findings, therefore, underscore the relevance of social interaction in understanding corruption.

Democracy, Property Rights, Income Equality, and Corruption

07 Jan 2011

This paper presents theoretical and empirical evidence on the nexus between corruption and democracy. We establish a political economy model where the effect of democracy on corruption is conditional on income distribution and property rights protection. Our empirical analysis with cross-national panel data provides evidence that is consistent with the theoretical prediction. Moreover, the effect of democratization on corruption depends on the protection of property rights and income equality which shows that corruption is a nonlinear function of these variables. The results indicate that democracy will work better as a control of corruption if the property rights system works and there is a low level of income inequality. On the other hand if property rights are not secured and there is strong income inequality, democracy may even lead to an increase of corruption. In addition, property rights protection and the mitigation of income inequality contribute in a strong manner to the reduction of corruption.

The Fight Against Geography: Malaria and Economic Development in Italian Regions

06 Jan 2011

Geography has long been considered as a fundamental prerequisite for economic development and growth. In recent years, a growing number of papers have considered the role of physical geography as a determinant of regional growth and development by considering it as a source of “intrinsic advantage”. Malaria is considered to be strictly related to poverty and its geographically-related origin is now widely recognized, i.e. it is endemic only in certain areas of the globe whose environmental and climatic characteristics are ideal for the proliferation of mosquitoes which are the vector for the transmission of the disease. The World Health Organization is currently setting a series of policies aiming to eradicate the disease from Africa, with the specific goals to preserve human lives and possibly to boost economic growth in those areas. Among the several malaria parasites, the worst, Plasmodium falciparum, has infested Italian regions for centuries until the complete eradication occurred in the period 1945-1950. In this paper I provide an empirical assessment of the economic outcomes of malaria eradication in Italian regions. By making use of both macroeconomic and microeconomic data, I found support to the hypothesis that malaria eradication boosts productivity growth and that in the long run it leads to an increase in human capital. In particular, I found that the presence of malaria reduced significantly regional growth over the period 1891-1961, while its eradication increased the years of schooling for both males and females respectively, although my evidence points at a larger support for a very long run impact of eradication actions through an intergenerational spillover effect.

Productivity Spillovers from Foreign MNEs on Domestic Manufacturing Firms: Is Co-location Always a Plus?

06 Jan 2011

The paper analyses productivity spillovers from foreign MNEs on domestic manufacturing firms. Using a database on foreign MNEs in Italy, our results reveal that local firms do benefit from the presence of foreign MNEs, and the effect is higher when local and foreign firms in manufacturing sectors are co-located. However, spillovers benefiting domestic firms are likely to be less influenced by co-location when foreign MNEs are in services sectors as the latter are different from manufacturing industries under a number of aspects that overcome the effect of distance. Indeed, in these sectors, proximity and interaction are often obtained through professional mobility and temporary inter-organizational routines.

“The Voracity Effect” and Climate Change: The Impact of Clean Technologies

05 Jan 2011

We show that a technological breakthrough that reduces CO2 emissions per output can exacerbate the climate change problem: countries may respond by raising their emissions resulting in an increase of the stock of pollution that may reduce welfare. Using parameter values based on empirical evidence we obtain that any 'new technology' that reduces the emissions of CO2 per dollar of GDP by less than 76% from their current level is welfare reducing. Developing clean technologies as well as transferring “cleaner” technologies to developing countries make a global post-Kyoto agreement over the control of emissions all the more urgent.

Afforestation and Timber Management Compliance Strategies in Climate Policy. A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

04 Jan 2011

This paper analyzes the role of afforestation-reforestation and timber management activities, and their major and secondary economic effects in stabilizing climate during the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. In particular, with a Computable General Equilibrium framework, the ICES model, it is inferred how forest carbon sequestration fits within the European domestic portfolio of a 2020-20 and 2020-30 climate stabilization policy. Afforestation and land use are accounted for by introducing their effects in the model. This is done by relying on carbon sequestration curves provided by Sohngen (2005), which describe the average annual cost of sequestration for selected world regions. Results show that afforestation and timber management could lead to substantially lower policy costs if included. By allowing afforestation alone it is possible to achieve the 30% emissions reduction target with an additional European effort of only 0.2% compared with the cost of a 20% emissions reduction without afforestation. The introduction of these alternatives for mitigating climate is expected to reduce carbon price by around 30% in 2020 and the already contained leakage effect (around 1%), coming from an independent European commitment, by 0.2%.

Energy Abundance, Trade and Industry Location

03 Jan 2011

We study the effect of countries’ energy abundance on trade and sector activity, conditional on sector’s energy intensity, using an unbalanced panel with 14 high-income countries from Europe, America and Asia, 10 broad sectors, and years 1970-1997. We find that (i) countries with large energy endowments have low energy prices, and are thus energy abundant both on micro and macro level. (ii) Energy abundant countries have a high level of energy embodied in exports relative to imports. (iii) Energy intensive sectors export from and (iv) have higher economic activity in energy abundant countries. (v) The trade and location effects increase with a sector’s exposure to international trade. In short, energy is a major driver for sector location through specialisation. We show that capital and energy are complements in the production function and use various controls in our analysis. The results give insights into delocalisation effects that may take place among rich countries with heterogeneous energy policy.

Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change: Alternative Analytical Approaches

02 Jan 2011

Uncertainty plays a key role in the economics of climate change, and the discussions surrounding its implications for climate policy are far from settled. We give an overview of the literature on uncertainty in integrated assessment models of climate change and identify some future research needs. In the paper, we pay particular attention to three different and complementary approaches that model uncertainty in association with integrated assessment models: the discrete uncertainty modeling, the most common way to incorporate uncertainty in complex climate-economy models: the real options analysis, a simplified way to identify and value flexibility: the continuous-time stochastic dynamic programming, which is computationally most challenging but necessary if persistent stochasticity is considered.

Residential Consumption of Gas and Electricity in the U.S.: The Role of Prices and Income

01 Jan 2011

We study residential demand for electricity and gas, working with nationwide household-level data that cover recent years, namely 1997-2007. Our dataset is a mixed panel/multi-year cross-sections of dwellings/households in the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the United States as of 2008. To our knowledge, this is the most comprehensive set of data for examining household residential energy usage at the national level, containing the broadest geographical coverage, and with the longest longitudinal component (up to 6 observations per dwelling). We estimate static and dynamic models of electricity and gas demand. We find strong household response to energy prices, both in the short and long term. From the static models, we get estimates of the own price elasticity of electricity demand in the -0.860 to -0.667 range, while the own price elasticity of gas demand is -0.693 to -0.566. These results are robust to a variety of checks. Contrary to earlier literature (Metcalf and Hassett, 1999; Reiss and White, 2005), we find no evidence of significantly different elasticities across households with electric and gas heat. The price elasticity of electricity demand declines with income, but the magnitude of this effect is small. These results are in sharp contrast to much of the literature on residential energy consumption in the United States, and with the figures used in current government agency practice. Our results suggest that there might be greater potential for policies which affect energy price than may have been previously appreciated.

Partecipare in rete

31 Dec 2010

In che rapporto si trova il territorio della Rete con il territorio reale? In che modo il Web può essere di supporto alle pratiche di partecipazione formali ed informali
nella gestione del territorio? La risposta che il volume – sia attraverso riflessioni di
sistema, sia proponendo esperienze concrete – dà a queste domande si fonda sull’idea
che le tecnologie della comunicazione e dell’informazione possono rappresentare
un utile strumento per il rinnovo dell’azione e dell’organizzazione politica.
In primo luogo per le collettività locali: ove la Rete può costituire un mezzo a disposizione
delle comunità per una gestione del territorio equilibrata, partecipata e
condivisa. In questi contesti, la Rete è paragonabile ad un elastico che collega la
realtà al Web: quando è in tensione vibra. È la tensione che alimenta il movimento,
il dibattito, la condivisione e il dialogo, creando l’occasione di risposte condivise
e scenari di intervento. Senza velleitarismi né spontaneismi, in contesti ordinati
di e-governance opportunamente ragionati e progettati, nell’ambito dei quali
i cittadini possano far sentire la propria voce, e questa possa essere raccolta e
tenuta in conto dalle istituzioni chiamate a rappresentarli.

Equilibri 2010.03 - L'alba africana

15 Dec 2010

A considerare l’Africa come la prossima economia emergente sono in molti. Il dossier di questo numero è dedicato a questo enorme continente, ricco di materie prime (petrolio, metalli, terreni), ma con un lungo elenco di problemi gravi non risolti. Seguono la rubrica “Dentro la crisi”, con un contributo di George Soros, e le consuete sezioni di approfondimento sui temi ambientali, energetici e di geopolitica internazionale.

Many consider Africa as the next emerging economy. The issue’s dossier is devoted to this huge continent, rich in natural resources (oil, metals, land), but with a long list of serious, unresolved problems. The issue also features a contribution by George Soros in the “Inside the Crisis” section, while the other sections include in-depth articles on environmental, energy and geopolitical themes.

Sustainability: the road not (yet) taken beyond GDP?

28 Nov 2010

The gross domestic product (GDP) is probably the best known and widespread measure of the wealth of nations. It is a simple and straightforward measure, easy to understand and to compare across countries, even when they differ dramatically in their economic development. The appealing nature of GDP - expressed as a single and simple number - hides limitations, which have been recently exposed by a new strand of literature identified as “beyond GDP”. Going beyond GDP implies shifting the focus from a purely economic perspective to a more holistic one, able to incorporate information relevant to social progress and to provide a dynamic and sustainable measure of development. Besides working to define a more effective version of GDP, the path “beyond GDP” offers many insights into the definition of other indicators and indices, but the road to substituting GDP with alternative indicators is “long and winding”. This Policy Brief addresses the theoretical and practical implications of walking down the “beyond GDP” path. After discussing the theoretical limitations of GDP, we detail why GDP alone is not able to inform policy-making and assist it in achieving a sustainable development. Then, we discuss recent examples of more complex indicators that try to do so. We review the theoretical and methodological issues that challenge the credibility and applicability of more complex measures such as sustainability indices. In particular, we focus on the FEEM Sustainability Index (FEEM SI), whose ability to work as a simulation environment demonstrates the potential of more sophisticated indices in supporting policy makers to understand the complex relations across the different components of sustainability and devise better and more effective policies.

The hidden trade-off between climate policy and sustainability: an obstacle or a source of incentives to achieve an agreement?

27 Nov 2010

The possible outcomes of climate negotiations in view of a future commitment after the Kyoto protocol have been mostly evaluated on the basis of their economic costs and the risk of growth slowdown, or in consideration of the feasibility of possible coalitions. However, the effect of such policies on Sustainability has hardly been considered. This becomes a major challenge since achieving a Sustainable Development has been recognized to be one of the main goals of modern societies. Given that climate change is a global problem, this matter should be considered not only at the regional and national levels but most importantly at the worldwide level, as it should be made sure that mitigation policies have an overall positive effect once all components of Sustainability are considered. This Policy Brief introduces the study of Sustainability within an international mitigation effort, taking as a reference point the pledges of the Copenhagen Accord proposed after COP-15. The analysis of its possible implications is then studied using the FEEM Sustainability Index (FEEM SI), a comprehensive measure which summarizes economic, social and environmental components. The results are not as straightforward as one may expect. While a global reduction of GHGs will greatly improve the environmental component, it generally has a negative effect on the economic and social spheres. Moreover, despite the usual debate on the economic costs of climate policies, the economic pillar is not as negatively affected as the social one. It is therefore crucial to introduce social policies to attenuate the social costs of climate policy alone. Such combinations are more likely to lead to a Sustainable Development, and therefore to be accepted by developing countries, which will allow progress on climate negotiations.

Cancún: don't look back in anger

26 Nov 2010

This policy brief will analyze expectations and challenges behind the 16th Conference of the Parties (COP 16) in Cancún, Mexico (29 November - 10 December 2010). In particular, the policy brief will focus on hot issues and key countries, the need for a “rescue plan” for the second Kyoto Protocol commitment period in the event of a Cancún failure and, finally, on a possible post-2012 climate policy architecture. The starting point will be the Copenhagen Accord, where a huge contradiction emerged between the promises formulated (the 2°C goal) and the determination to fulfil them (voluntary national policy actions). A compromise among different interests and requests of countries is still missing and, while EU climate leadership is starting to be questioned, a credible signal still has to be given by the highest emitters. However, what presumably will emerge in Cancún is a governance problem and parties will have to address the meeting as an opportunity to pave the way toward the establishment of an effective international climate change governance system. According to the above-described issues, this policy brief aims at proposing a three-point agenda for guiding policy makers to a credible and ambitious position for the future negotiations in Cancún.

Winter-break in Cancún: will the EU carry its leadership?

25 Nov 2010

This policy brief will analyze Europe’s role in shaping climate change negotiations, the
challenges faced by EU leadership after the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP 15), and whether it is still fundamental in order to reach an international agreement. Since the 1990s climate change governance has increasingly become part of broader European foreign policy, and has pursued fundamental objectives both at the international (global leader) and national (European integration) levels. In order to substantiate its role, the EU has been leading-by-doing, connecting what was going on at home with what was being advocated at the international level, adopting proactive climate and energy policies. COP 15 in Copenhagen represented a step backward in EU leadership, which was heavily challenged on many fronts. The EU played a marginal role in the Copenhagen Accord definition watching new actors (the U.S., BASIC and ALBA countries) become the protagonists of its elaboration. The EU’s loss of soft power pointed out how much its leadership suffered from a lack of unified representation at the negotiations level, mainly caused by divergences in implementing domestic climate policy. While the loss of European leadership should not be necessarily considered as permanent, this policy brief will question whether the EU’s leading role will still be necessary in the future. The Copenhagen Accord has highlighted the appeal of having a portfolio of non-binding domestic commitments instead of an international binding agreement with targets and timetables. Will Europe be able to cope with this new possible option?

Neoliberalismo e neopopulismo in America Latina. I casi di Messico e Argentina negli anni Novanta

20 Nov 2010

Alla fine degli anni Ottanta del Novecento le politiche neoliberali, che avevano trionfato nei maggiori paesi sviluppati, furono adottate in America Latina in modo pressoché uniforme per stimolare la crescita economica attraverso la liberalizzazione di beni, lavoro e capitale, le privatizzazioni e la deregulation. Protagonista nell’attuazione di questi cambiamenti radicali fu il presidenzialismo di matrice neopopulista e insieme neoliberale: un fenomeno inedito. Esso riattualizzò stili di leadership tipici del passato e, in tal modo, creò le condizioni necessarie per realizzare, con il consenso popolare, le riforme di mercato. In Messico e in Argentina – paesi che si pongono come paradigmatici di questo processo – Carlos Salinas de Gortari e Carlos Menem ne rappresentano i due maggiori esempi, a capo di due delle più importanti economie iberoamericane. Gli aggiustamenti strutturali da entrambi intrapresi riaccesero le speranze della popolazione, che, nel breve termine, non soltanto non furono disattese, ma generarono la stabilità sperata. Il successo fu però troppo breve. Il fallimento delle riforme di mercato, in questi paesi come nel resto dell’America Latina, non tardò a manifestarsi con il restringimento della base produttiva, la dipendenza della regione dall’esportazione di materie prime e la sempre maggiore polarizzazione della ricchezza. E l’America Latina, abbandonato il modello neoliberale, continua ancor oggi a vivere le contraddizioni allora generatesi, restando, dal punto di vista politico, legata a modelli di populismo e, sotto il profilo delle politiche economiche, ancora priva di un modello di sviluppo alternativo.

An Equilibrium Model of Habitat Conservation under Uncertainty and Irreversibility

04 Nov 2010

In this paper stochastic dynamic programming is used to investigate habitat conservation by a multitude of landholders under uncertainty about the value of environmental services and irreversible development. We study land conversion under competition on the market for agricultural products when voluntary and mandatory measures are combined by the Government to induce adequate participation in a conservation plan. We analytically determine the impact of uncertainty and optimal policy conversion dynamics and discuss different policy scenarios on the basis of the relative long-run expected rate of deforestation. Finally, some numerical simulations are provided to illustrate our findings.

Adapting and Mitigating to Climate Change: Balancing the Choice under Uncertainty

02 Nov 2010

Nowadays, as stressed by important strategic documents like for instance the 2009 EU White Paper on Adaptation or the recent 2009 “Copenhagen Accord”, it is amply recognized that both mitigation and adaptation strategies are necessary to combat climate change. This paper enriches the rapidly expanding literature trying to devise normative indications on the optimal combination of the two introducing the role of catastrophic and spatial uncertainty related to climate change damages. Applying a modified version of the Nordhaus’ Regional Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy it is shown that in both cases uncertainty works in the direction to make mitigation a more attractive strategy than adaptation. When catastrophic uncertainty is concerned mitigation becomes relatively more important as, by curbing emissions, it helps to reduce temperature increase and hence the probability of the occurrence of the event. Adaptation on the contrary has no impact on this. It is also shown that optimal mitigation responses are much less sensitive than adaptation responses to spatial uncertainty. Mitigation responds to global damages, while adaptation to local damages. The first, being aggregated, change less than the second in the presence of spatial uncertainty as higher expected losses in some regions are compensated by lower expected losses in other. Accordingly, mitigation changes less than adaptation. Thus if it cannot be really claimed that spatial uncertainty increases the weight of mitigation respect to that of adaptation, however its presence makes mitigation a “safer” or more robust strategy to a policy decision maker than adaptation.

Assessing China’s Carbon Intensity Pledge for 2020: Stringency and Credibility Issues and their Implications

01 Nov 2010

Just prior to the Copenhagen climate summit, China pledged to cut its carbon intensity by 40-45% by 2020 relative to its 2005 levels to help to reach an international climate change agreement at Copenhagen or beyond. This raises the issue of whether such a pledge is ambitious or just represents business as usual. To put China’s climate pledge into perspective, this paper examines whether this proposed carbon intensity goal for 2020 is as challenging as the energy-saving goals set in the current 11th five-year economic blueprint, to what extent it drives China’s emissions below its projected baseline levels, and whether China will fulfill its part of a coordinated global commitment to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere at the desirable level. Given that China’s pledge is in the form of carbon intensity, the paper shows that GDP figures are even more crucial to the impacts on the energy or carbon intensity than are energy consumption and emissions data by examining the revisions of China’s GDP figures and energy consumption in recent years. Moreover, the paper emphasizes that China’s proposed carbon intensity target not only needs to be seen as ambitious, but more importantly it needs to be credible. Finally, it is concluded with a suggestion that international climate change negotiations need to focus on 2030 as the targeted date to cap the greenhouse gas emissions of the world’s two largest emitters in a legally binding global agreement.

REDD and International Organizations

31 Oct 2010

Climate change mitigation can be achieved, according to many, by means of Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in the Tropics (REDD). Within the climate change policy debate we thus find discussions on how to reduce GHG emissions by designing appropriate REDD programmes and projects. In this paper I try to capture this debate by looking at the role of five major international organizations, which were chosen to represent the different aspects related to REDD. In order for REDD to be successful, not only GHG reduction, but also multiple benefits should be achieved: indigenous and local peoples’ involvement, livelihood improvement, fair and equitable labour, biodiversity conservation, and sustainable forest management, to name some of the most relevant. The selected international organizations are: UN-REDD, The GEF, The CBD, ITTO, and ILO. The role of these is assessed, to understand not only what has been defined and achieved, but also what possible way forward the organizations are envisioning, and what issues remain to be addressed.

Carbon Capture; Transport and Storage in Europe: A Problematic Energy Bridge to Nowhere?

30 Oct 2010

This paper is a follow up of the SECURE-project, financed by the European Commission to study “Security of Energy Considering its Uncertainties, Risks and Economic Implications”. It addresses the perspectives of, and the obstacles to a CCTS-roll out, as stipulated in some of the scenarios. Our main hypothesis is that given the substantial technical and institutional uncertainties, the lack of a clear political commitment, and the available alternatives of low-carbon technologies, CCTS is unlikely to play an important role in the future energy mix; it is even less likely to be an “energy bridge” into a low-carbon energy future.

Robust Control and Hot Spots in Dynamic Spatially Interconnected Systems

29 Oct 2010

This paper develops linear quadratic robust control theory for a class of spatially invariant distributed control systems that appear in areas of economics such as New Economic Geography, management of ecological systems, optimal harvesting of spatially mobile species, and the like. Since this class of problems has an infinite dimensional state and control space it would appear analytically intractable. We show that by Fourier transforming the problem, the solution decomposes into a countable number of finite state space robust control problems each of which can be solved by standard methods. We use this convenient
property to characterize “hot spots” which are points in the transformed space that correspond to “breakdown” points in conventional finite dimensional robust control, or where instabilities appear or where the value function loses concavity. We apply our methods to a spatial extension of a well known optimal fishing model.

Is the Value of Bioprospecting Contracts Too Low?

28 Oct 2010

In order to regulate the proliferated bioprospecting and protect the biological diversity in the source countries, the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) established a legal framework for the reciprocal transfer of biological materials between the interested parties in bioprospecting activities, subject to the Prior Informed Content (PIC) principles and a set of mutually agreed items on equitable sharing of benefits (CBD 1992, Bhat 1999; Ten Kate and Laird 1999; Dedeurwaerdere 2005). Although interesting and valuable to the cause of conservation, there is a feeling that the ‘price’ being paid under these arrangements is too low. Somehow ecologists argue that, surely, these materials have a greater value than the few million dollars being paid to national conservation organizations for the protection of the areas where the material are located. In this paper we seek to understand better how a biodiversity resource’ use value in production is determined, and how the real value is obscured by the fact that the resource is largely open access. We attempt to analyse how special arrangements, set op top of a basic framework in which the resource open access is limited in what it can achieve and in the ‘price’ that will emerge from any transaction between the buyers of the rights and the sellers of the rights.

Entry on Export Markets and Firm-Level Performance Growth: Intra-Industrial Convergence or Divergence?

26 Oct 2010

This paper investigates theoretically and empirically the endogenous investment decision of firms conditioning on export decision. It shows that theoretically, whatever the form of preferences, firms that start exporting invest more and grow more than the others. However, it is shown that when preferences are CES, within each category of firms (domestic and switchers), initial productivity and investment are strategic complements, inducing intra-industrial divergence. On the contrary, when preferences are quadratic, initial productivity and investment are strategic substitutes: less productive firms invest more and grow more than the others, inducing intra-industrial convergence. Empirical results on French data support the predictions of the quadratic preferences model.

The Effect of Tracking Students by Ability into Different Schools: A Natural Experiment

25 Oct 2010

The tracking of pupils by ability into elite and non-elite schools represents a controversial policy in many countries. There is no consensus on how large the elite track should be and little agreement on the effects of any further increase in its size. This paper presents a natural experiment where the increase in the size of the elite track was followed by a significant improvement in average educational outcomes. This experiment provides a rare opportunity to isolate the overall effect of allowing entry to the elite track for a group that was previously only at the margin of being admitted.

The Social Cost of Electricity. Scenarios and Policy Implications

25 Oct 2010

This book reports and rationalizes the state of the art concerning the social costs of electricity generation. Social costs are assessed by adding to the private generation costs, the external costs related to damages to human health, the environment, crops, materials, and those related to the consequences of climate change.

The authors consider the evolution of these costs up to 2030 for major electricity generating technologies and, using these estimates, evaluate policy options for external cost internalization and provide quantitative scenarios, by country and primary fuel, for 2010, 2020 and 2030.

While mainly focusing on European countries, the book also examines the situation in key emerging economies such as China, India, Brazil and Turkey.

Contributors: H. Allal, S. Arnold, A. Behrens, A. Bigano, M. Blesl, G. Bökenkamp, L. Brander, W.-J. Chou, D. Diakoulaki, C. Egenhofer, R. Friedrich, K. Halsnæs, S. Hirschberg, O. Hohmeyer, A. Hunt, O. Kuik, O. Løfsnes, K. Magnussen, A. Markandya, S. Navrud, T. Niesor, W. Nijs, R. Porchia, P. Preiss, A. Rabl, L. Rosendahl Appelquist, B. Tennbakk, C. Tourkolias, M. Urbani, A. van der Welle, B. van der Zwaan, S. Wissel, X. Zhu

***

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Does Emigration Benefit the Stayers? The EU Enlargement as a Natural Experiment. Evidence from Lithuania

24 Oct 2010

The eastern enlargement of the European Union in 2004 triggered a large flow of migrant workers from the new member states to the UK and Ireland. This paper analyzes the impact of this migration wave on the real wages in the source countries. I consider the case of Lithuania, which had the highest share of emigrants relative to its workforce among all ten new member states. Using data from the Lithuanian Household Budget Survey and the Irish Census, I find that emigration had a significant positive effect on the wages of men who stayed in the country, but no such effect is visible for women. A percentage point increase in the emigration rate increases the real wage of men on average by 1%. Several robustness checks confirm this result.

Drought and Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

23 Oct 2010

In this paper, we show that drought has a positive effect on the incidence of civil war over the 1945-2005 period in Sub-Saharan Africa. We use the Palmer Drought Severity Index which is a richer measurement of drought than the measures used in the literature (rainfall and temperature) as it measures the accumulation of water in the soil in taking into account the temperature and the geological characteristics of the soil. We show that the risk of civil war increases by more than 42% from a “normal” climate to an “extremely drought” climate. Surprisingly, only 2.5% of this effect is channeled through economic growth.

Carbon Abatement Leaders and Laggards Non Parametric Analyses of Policy Oriented Kuznets Curves

22 Oct 2010

We study the eventual structural differences of climate change leading ‘actors’ such as Northern EU countries, and ‘lagging actors’ - southern EU countries and the ‘Umbrella group’ - with regard to long run (1960-2001) carbon-income relationships. Parametric and semi parametric panel models show that the groups of countries that were in the Kyoto arena less in favour of stringent climate policy, have yet to experience a turning point, though they at least show relative delinking in their monotonic carbon-income relationship. Northern EU instead robustly shows bell shapes across models, which seem to depend on time related (policy) events. Time related effects are more relevant than income effects in explaining the occurrence of robust Kuznets curves. The reaction of northern EU to exogenous policy events such as the 1992 climate change convention that gave earth to the Kyoto era, and even the second oil shock that preceded it in the 80’s are among the causes of the observed structural differences.

Extrapolation in Games of Coordination and Dominance Solvable Games

21 Oct 2010

We study extrapolation between games in a laboratory experiment. Participants in our experiment first play either the dominance solvable guessing game or a Coordination version of the guessing game for five rounds. Afterwards they play a 3x3 normal form game for ten rounds with random matching which is either a game solvable through iterated elimination of dominated strategies (IEDS), a pure Coordination game or a Coordination game with pareto ranked equilibria. We find strong evidence that participants do extrapolate between games. Playing a strategically different game hurts compared to the control treatment where no guessing game is played before and in fact impedes convergence to Nash equilibrium in both the 3x3 IEDS and the Coordination games. Playing a strategically similar game before leads to faster convergence to Nash equilibrium in the second game. In the Coordination games some participants try to use the first game as a Coordination device. Our design and results allow us to conclude that participants do not only learn about the population and/or successful actions, but that they are also able to learn structural properties of the games.

Governing a Common-Pool Resource in a Directed Network

20 Oct 2010

A local public-good game played on directed networks is analyzed. The model is motivated by one-way flows of hydrological influence between cities of a river basin that may shape the level of their contribution to the conservation of wetlands. It is shown that in many (but not all) directed networks, there exists an equilibrium, sometimes socially desirable, in which some stakeholders exert maximal effort and the others free ride. It is also shown that more directed links are not always better. Finally, the model is applied to the conservation of wetlands in the Gironde estuary (France).

FEEM-Monitor SWF Report 1H-2010

20 Oct 2010

The global economic environment of the first half of 2010 was far better than that of the same period a year earlier. After withdrawing from the market during the first half of 2009, SWF investment activity picked up. At the beginning of 2010, this trend continued. During H1 2010, 16 of the 33 SWFs on the Monitor-FEEM SWF Transaction Database undertook 92 publicly reported investments with a value of $22.2 billion—double the number and value of the same period in 2009. Compared to H2 2009, the previous half year, the number of deals increased by 20 percent in H1 2010, but the value of these represented only 40 percent of the previous total. It thus appears that SWFs continued a trend we identified at the end of last year—that of making more, but smaller individual investments and (generally) taking smaller shareholdings. Additionally, the value of SWFs’ investment was depressed in comparison to H2 2009 as during H1 2010 they did not make any large domestic investments or recapitalizations such as those that inflated total expenditures in the earlier period.

However, this pattern may also signal that SWFs are being more cautious than they were six months ago, as they respond to concerns about sluggish economic growth and the possibility of a double-dip recession. For example, during the first half of 2010 we recorded only 18 announced or pending SWF investments—the same amount announced in the third quarter of 2009. This suggests that while SWFs remain active in M&A markets, they are unwilling to commit too far in advance or to announce investments before the fact.

In 2009, we noted a trend of SWFs retreating from financial services investments. During the first half of 2010 we saw a move back to this sector, with SWFs making 19 investments with a total value of $7.4 billion. However, the investment pattern was different from that in 2008, when SWFs took large equity stakes in OECD financial institutions. In 2010, SWF purchases were not, on the whole, equity stakes in banks, but rather indicate a trend towards more diverse exposure to this sector. For example, SWFs invested in private equity and investment funds focused on emerging markets or infrastructure development.

SWFs also partook in a global and accelerating M&A boomlet in energy, suggesting
that their continuing interest in natural resources is part of a wider trend in the global economy. According to Thompson Reuters the value of global investments in energy and power are up 64 percent on 2009 to $292 billion and accounted for 22 percent of all global deals in the first half of 2010. The SWFs in our database contributed 15 deals valued at $6.9 billion to these sectors during the first half of the year. A related sector in which SWFs also showed interest was mining and solid minerals. In the first six months of 2010, SWFs invested over $1.6 billion in mining companies; although most of these were listed in OECD countries (Canada, the United States and Britain) their businesses are centered on mining in emerging markets.

Among SWFs, China Investment Corporation (CIC) and Qatar Investment Agency (QIA) once again proved the most willing to make large investments. CIC made 14 publicly reported investments valued at $7.3 billion, primarily in natural resources (energy and mining) and private equity. QIA also made 14 publicly reported investments with a value of $5.5 billion, the most notable being the Raffles Hotel in Singapore and Harrods, the luxury London department store.

Polluters and Abaters

19 Oct 2010

To comply with laws, regulations and social demands, polluting firms increasingly purchase the needed means from specialized suppliers. This paper analyzes this relatively recent phenomenon. We show how environmental regulation, the size of the output market, the elasticity of demand for abatement goods and services, and the fact that in-house and outsourced abatement expenses are substitutes or complements can influence a polluter’s make-or-buy decision. Specific features of abatement outsourcing are highlighted, qualifications and refinements of the theory of vertical integration are then proposed, and some consequences for environmental policy are briefly discussed.

Immigration, Offshoring and American Jobs

18 Oct 2010

How many "American jobs" have U.S.-born workers lost due to immigration and offshoring? Or, alternatively, is it possible that immigration and offshoring, by promoting cost-savings and enhanced efficiency in firms, have spurred the creation of jobs for U.S. natives? We consider a multi-sector version of the Grossman and Rossi-Hansberg (2008) model with a continuum of tasks in each sector and we augment it to include immigrants with heterogeneous productivity in tasks. We use this model to jointly analyze the impact of a reduction in the costs of offshoring and of the costs of immigrating to the U.S. The model predicts that while cheaper offshoring reduces the share of natives among less skilled workers, cheaper immigration does not, but rather reduces the share of offshored jobs instead. Moreover, since both phenomena have a positive "cost-savings" effect they may leave unaffected, or even increase, total native employment of less skilled workers. Our model also predicts that offshoring will push natives toward jobs that are more intensive in communication-interactive skills and away from those that are manual and routine intensive. We test the predictions of the model on data for 58 U.S. manufacturing industries over the period 2000-2007 and find evidence in favor of a positive productivity effect such that immigration has a positive net effect on native employment while offshoring has no effect on it. We also find some evidence that offshoring has pushed natives toward more communication-intensive tasks while it has pushed immigrants away from them.

Immigration, Offshoring and American Jobs

18 Oct 2010

The Public Management of Risk: Separating Ex Ante and Ex Post Monitors

17 Oct 2010

When a firm undertakes risky activities, the conflict between social and private incentives to implement safety care requires public intervention which can take the form of both monetary incentives but also ex ante or ex post monitoring, i.e., before or after an accident occurs. We delineate the optimal scope of monitoring depending on whether public monitors are benevolent or corruptible. We show that separating the ex ante and the ex post monitors increases the likelihood of ex post investigation, helps prevent capture and improves welfare.

Repeated Cheap-Talk Games of Common Interest between a Decision-Maker and an Expert of Unknown Statistical Bias

16 Oct 2010

Two agents are engaged in a joint activity that yields a common perperiod payoff at two rounds of play. The expert announces the probability that the current state of the world is low, instead of high, at each stage. Having received the report of the expert, the decision-maker takes action at every period according to his posterior beliefs. At the end of each round of play, the true current state is verifiable. The distinctive assumption of the paper is that the decision-maker makes a subjective appraisal of the expert’s reliability: he considers the expert’s true forecasts as the outcomes of an experiment of unknown statistical bias. The paper shows that the expert will have instrumental reputational concerns, related to the future estimate of the systematic error associated to his predictions. In contrast with previous work, reputational concerns are shown to enhance the credibility of the initial messages, and to increase both the agents’ expected payoff at the first round of play in equilibrium. The equilibrium messages will be noisy, but noisiness will be less costly than it would be in single-stage games.

REDD in the Carbon Market: A General Equilibrium Analysis

15 Oct 2010

Deforestation is a major source of CO2 emissions, accounting for around 17% of total annual anthropogenic carbon release. While the cost estimates of reducing deforestation rates vary considerably depending on model assumptions, it is widely accepted that emissions reductions from avoided deforestation consist of a relatively low cost mitigation option. Halting deforestation is therefore not only a major ecological challenge, but also a great opportunity to cost effectively reduce climate change negative impacts. In this paper we analyze the impact of introducing avoided deforestation credits into the European carbon market using a multiregional Computable General Equilibrium model – the ICES model (Inter-temporal Computable Equilibrium System). Taking into account political concerns over a possible “flooding” of REDD credits, various limits to the number of REDD allowances entering the carbon market are considered. Finally, unlike previous studies, we account for both direct and indirect effects occurring on land and timber markets resulting from lower deforestation rates. We conclude that avoided deforestation notably reduces climate change policy costs - by approximately 80% with unlimited availability of REDD credits - and may drastically reduce carbon prices. Policy makers may, however, effectively control for these imposing limits to avoided deforestation credits use. Moreover, avoided deforestation has the additional positive effect of reducing carbon leakage of a unilateral European climate change policy. This is good news for the EU, but not necessarily for REDD regions. Indeed we show that REDD revenues are not sufficient to compensate REDD regions for a less leakage-affected and more competitive EU in international markets. In fact, REDD regions would prefer to free ride on the EU unilateral mitigation policy.

The European Emission Trading Scheme and Renewable Energy Policies: Credible Targets for Incredible Results?

14 Oct 2010

This paper discusses the merits and limits of the recent European energy policy aimed at reducing carbon emissions, devoting particular attention to the European Trading System of carbon permits and to the measures that the European Union has adopted to promote renewable energy sources. From the comparison of past goals and present results, it is argued that more credible targets for carbon emission reductions and renewable shares would probably help the transition towards an alternative energy system and the necessary reduction of greenhouse gases.

Sovereign Wealth Funds: Form and Function in the 21st Century

13 Oct 2010

As representatives of nation-states in global financial markets, sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) share a common form and many functions. Arguably their form and functions owe as much to a shared (global) moment of institutional formation as they owe their form and functions to the hegemony of Anglo-American finance over the late 20th and early 21st centuries. We distinguish between the immediate future for SWFs in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, and two possible long-term scenarios; one of which sees SWFs becoming financial goliaths dominating global markets, while the other sees SWFs morphing into nation-state development institutions that intermediate between financial markets and the long-term commitments of the nation-state sponsors. If the former scenario dominates, global financial integration will accelerate with attendant costs and benefits. If the latter scenario dominates, SWFs are likely to differentiate and evolve, returning, perhaps, to their national traditions and their respective places in a world of contested power and influence. Here, we clarify the assumptions underpinning the conception and formation of sovereign wealth funds over the past twenty years or so in the face of the ‘new’ realities of global finance.

Does the Cause of Death Matter? The Effect of Dread, Controllability, Exposure and Latency on the Vsl

12 Oct 2010

The Value of a Statistical Life is a key input into the calculation of the benefits of environmental policies that save lives. To date, the VSL used in environmental policy analyses has not been adjusted for age or the cause of death. Air pollution regulations, however, are linked to reductions in the risk of dying for cancer, heart disease, and respiratory illnesses, raising the question whether a single VSL should be applied for all of these causes of death. We conducted a conjoint choice experiment survey in Milan, Italy, to investigate this question. We find that the VSL increases with dread, exposure, the respondents’ assessments of the baseline risks, and experience with the specific risks being studied. The VSL is higher when the risk reduction is delivered by a public program, and increases with the effectiveness rating assigned by the respondent to public programs that address specific causes of death. The effectiveness of private risk-reducing behaviors is also positively associated with the VSL, but the effect is only half as large as that of public program effectiveness. The coefficients on dummies for the cause of death per se—namely, whether it’s cancer, a road traffic accident or a respiratory illness—are strongly statistically significant. All else the same, the fact that the cause of the death is “cancer” results in a VSL that is almost one million euro above the amount predicted by dread, exposure, beliefs, etc. The VSL in the road safety context is about one million euro less than what is predicted by dread, exposure, beliefs, etc. These effects are large, but the majority of the variation in the VSL is accounted for by the public program feature, the effectiveness of public programs at reducing the indicated risk, and dread. The effects of exposure and experience are smaller. These results raise the question whether using VSL figures based on private risk reduction, which is usually recommended to avoid double-counting, severely understates how much a society might be willing to pay for public safety.

Valuation of Linkages between Climate Change, Biodiversity and Productivity of European Agro-Ecosystems

11 Oct 2010

It is clear that climate change involves changes in temperature and precipitation and therefore directly affects land productivity. However, this is not the only channel for climatic change to affect agro-systems. Biodiversity is subject to climatic fluctuations and in turn may alter land productivity too. Firstly, biodiversity is an input into agro-ecosystems. Secondly, biodiversity supports the functioning of these systems (e.g. the balancing of the nutrient cycle). Thirdly, agro-systems also host important wildlife species which, though not always, play a functional role in land productivity, nonetheless constitute important sources of landscape amenities. The present paper illustrates a unique attempt to economically assess this additional effect climate change may imply on agriculture. We first empirically evaluate changes in land productivity due to climatic change effect on temperature, precipitations and biodiversity. Then we estimate the economic cost of biodiversity impact on agro-systems. Our key finding is that climate-change-induced biodiversity impact on European agro-systems measured in terms of GDP change in year 2050 is sufficiently large to deepen the direct climate-change effect in some regions and to reverse it in others. Different economies show different resilience profiles to deal with this effect.

Equilibri 2010.02 - Responsabilità e impresa

10 Oct 2010

Responsabilità e impresa è il tema del dossier del numero 2.2010 di «Equilibri». La rivista non poteva non occuparsi del caso BP, una delle più gravi catastrofi ambientali della storia dell’industria petrolifera. Lo facciamo in questo numero, a qualche mese di distanza dal tragico blow out nel Golfo del Messico, per discutere in maniera ampia e approfondita quello che secondo noi è il cuore del problema sollevato dall’incidente: la responsabilità delle imprese di fronte alla collettività e come essa potrà evolvere a seguito dei grandi shock che il sistema globale ha subito durante la crisi.
Seguono le consuete sezioni: Dentro la crisi, La natura come limite, Lettere internazionali, Geopolitica per l’energia, Aritmetica economica e Letture sostenibili.

Corporate Social Responsibility is the theme of the dossier of the 2.2010 issue of «Equilibri». We could not avoid debating the BP spill, one of the worst environmental disasters in the history of the offshore industry. We are discussing it in this issue, a few months after the blow out in the Gulf of Mexico, to analyze what we believe is the heart of the problem raised by the BP accident: the responsibility of firms toward the community. How will corporate responsibility evolve after the shocks endured by the global system during the crisis? The usual sections follow: Inside the Crisis, Nature as a Limit, International Letters, Geopolitics for Energy, Economic Arithmetics and Sustainable Readings.

Download the Table of Contents, Short Abstracts and Editorial

Climate Change Adaptation, Development, and International Financial Support: Lessons from EU Pre-Accession and Solidarity Funds

09 Oct 2010

Funding adaptation requires adequate governance and there are different ways to organise and channel the funds to where it is most efficient and most necessary. This paper investigates this issue and studies the practical implementation of a development under conditionality, namely adaptation-development, and its requirement in terms of financing architecture. To contribute to this research, it looks at similar problems that have been met in the past, namely the European funding programs for Eastern Europe countries that were candidates to adhesion, and European internal structural and cohesion funds. These funding examples provide a pertinent analogy for the adaptation problem, and most issues in adaptation finance have also been met in these funds (difficulty to define and measure additionality and incremental cost, concept fuzziness, need for leverage and mainstreaming, ownership and sovereignty issues). Publicly available documents from the European Commission and the European Court of Auditors are reviewed, providing interesting insights into possible implementation of adaptation finance. These insights can be summarized into seven main lessons: (1) “black-spot” programs are less flexible but more efficient than “concept-based” programs; (2) a multi-scale and multi-step approach can minimize sovereignty and ownership issue, and facilitate capacity building; (3) private funding leverage is a myth, and funding based on the “additional cost” is highly inefficient; (4) non substitutability among objectives and regions is necessary; (5) sub-national eligibility criteria are a viable solution; (6) institutional capacity matter: low-capacity countries should focus on capacity building and “black-spot” strategies; higher-capacity countries can follow a concept-based approach; and (7) the EU should use its own experience to promote its views of adaptation funds.

Beyond Copenhagen: A Realistic Climate Policy in a Fragmented World

08 Oct 2010

We propose a realistic approach to climate policy based on the Copenhagen Agreement to reduce Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emissions. We assess by how much the non-binding, although official, commitments to reduce emissions made in Copenhagen will affect the level of world GHGs emissions in 2020. Our estimates are based on official communications to the UNFCCC, on historic data and on the Business-as-Usual scenario of the WITCH model. We are not interested in estimating the gap between the expected level of emissions and what would be needed to achieve the 2°C target. Nor do we attempt to calculate the 2100 temperature level implied by the Copenhagen pledges. We believe these two exercises are subject to high uncertainty and would not improve the current state of negotiations. Rather, we take stock of the present politically achievable level of commitment and suggest an effective way to push forward the climate policy agenda. The focus is on what can be done rather than on what should be done. To this end, we estimate the potential of the financial provisions of the Copenhagen Agreement to sponsor mitigation effort in Non-Annex I countries. Using scenarios produced with the WITCH model, we show that lower commitment on domestic abatement measures can be compensated by devoting roughly 50% of the Copenhagen financial provisions in 2020 to mitigation in Non-Annex I countries. The policy implications of our results will be discussed.

Beyond Copenhagen: A Realistic Climate Policy in a Fragmented World

08 Oct 2010

Local Communities in front of Big External Investors: An Opportunity or a Risk?

07 Oct 2010

In the current age of trade and financial openness, local economies in developing countries are becoming increasingly exposed to external investments. The objective of the proposed two-sector model with environmental externalities is to provide an insight into the interaction between external investors and local communities with a focus upon the different strategies and income sources available to each category. In this context, analysis suggests that environmental regulations and incentives offered in order to attract external capital investment (whether foreign or national) may have an un-uniform impact on the two typologies of actors.

Optimal Patentability Requirements with Fragmented Property Rights

06 Oct 2010

We study the effect of the fragmentation of intellectual property rights on optimal patent design. The major finding is that when several complementary innovative components must be assembled to operate a new technology, the patentability requirements should be stronger than in the case of stand-alone innovation. This reduces the fragmentation of intellectual property, which is socially costly. However, to preserve the incentives to innovate,
if a patent is granted the strength of protection should be generally higher than in the stand-alone case.

The Impact of Protest Responses in Choice Experiments

05 Oct 2010

Not much attention has been given to protest responses in choice experiments (CE). Using follow-up statements, we are able to identify protest responses and compute welfare estimates with and without the inclusion of such protest responses. We conclude that protest responses are fairly common in CE, and their analysis affects the statistical performance of the empirical models. In particular, when the sample is corrected by protests, our results come from utility consistent models. Thus, future choice experiments should consider the role of protest responses as contingent valuation studies have done.

On the Road to a Unified Market for Energy Efficiency: The Contribution of White Certificates Schemes

04 Oct 2010

White certificates schemes mandate competing energy companies to promote energy efficiency with flexibility mechanisms, including the trading of energy savings. So far, stylized facts are lacking and outcomes are mainly country-specific. By comparing results of British, Italian and French experiences, we attempt to identify the core determinants of their performances. We show that (i) white certificates schemes are depicted in theoretical works as mandatory subsidies on energy efficiency goods recovered by an end-use energy tax, whereby white certificates exchanges are not a central feature; (ii) at current stages, existing schemes are cost-effective and economically efficient, with large discrepancies though; (iii) the hybrid subsidy-tax mechanism seems valid but conditional to cost pass through permissions; otherwise, obliged energy companies merely promote information on the “downstream” side (i.e. at the consumer level); (iv) although white certificates exchange between different types of actors involved can be important as in Italy, trade among obliged companies is negligible; instead, flexibility sustains vertical relationships between obliged parties and “upstream” partners (i.e. installers, energy service companies). In this respect, we support the view that white certificates schemes are a policy instrument of multi-functional nature (subsidisation, information, technology diffusion), whose static and dynamic efficiency depends upon the consistency between a proper definition of long-term energy savings, the appropriate cost-recovery permission and a fine coordination with other instruments. We finally propose a four stages deployment pattern, along which fragmented markets for energy efficient technologies get closer to create a unified market delivering energy efficiency as a homogeneous good.

The Problem of the Commons: Still Unsettled after 100 Years

03 Oct 2010

The problem of the commons is more important to our lives and thus more central to economics than a century ago when Katharine Coman led off the first issue of the American
Economic Review. As the U.S. and other economies have grown, the carrying-capacity of the planet - in regard to natural resources and environmental quality — has become a greater concern, particularly for common-property and open-access resources. The focus of this article is on some important, unsettled problems of the commons. Within the realm of natural resources, there are special challenges associated with renewable resources, which are frequently characterized by open access. An important example is the degradation of open-access fisheries. Critical commons problems are also associated with environmental quality. A key contribution of economics has been the development of market-based approaches to environmental protection. These instruments are key to addressing the ultimate commons problem of the twenty-first century - global climate change.

Static and Dynamic Efficiency of Irreversible Health Care Investments under Alternative Payment Rules

02 Oct 2010

The paper studies the incentive for providers to invest in new health care technologies under alternative payment systems, when the patients' benefits are uncertain. If the reimbursement by the purchaser includes both a variable (per patient) and a lump-sum component, efficiency can be ensured both in the timing of adoption (dynamic) and the intensity of use of the technology (static). If the second instrument is unavailable, a trade-off may emerge between static and dynamic efficiency. In this context, we also discuss how the regulator could use the control of the level of uncertainty faced by the provider as an instrument to mitigate the trade-off between static and dynamic efficiency. Finally, the model is calibrated to study a specific technology.

Crime and Education in a Model of Information Transmission

01 Oct 2010

We model the decisions of young individuals to stay in school or drop-out and engage in criminal activities. We build on the literature on human capital and crime engagement and use the framework of Banerjee (1993) that assumes that the information needed to engage in crime arrives in the form of a rumor and that individuals update their beliefs about the profitability of crime relative to education. These assumptions allow us to study the effect of social interactions on crime. We first show that a society with fully rational students is less vulnerable to crime than an otherwise identical society with boundedly rational students. We also investigate the spillovers from the actions of talented students to less talented students and show that policies that decrease the cost of education for talented students may increase the vulnerability of less talented students to crime. This is always the case when the heterogeneity of students with respect to talent is sufficiently small.

Information, Stability and Dynamics in Networks under Institutional Constraints

30 Sep 2010

In this paper we study the effects of institutional constraints on stability, efficiency and network formation. More precisely, an exogenous "societal cover" consisting of a collection of possibly overlapping subsets that covers the whole set of players and such that no set in this collection is contained in another specifies the social organization in different groups or "societies". It is assumed that a player may initiate links only with players that belong to at least one society that s/he also belongs to, thus restricting the feasible strategies and networks. In this way only the players in the possibly empty "societal core", i.e., those that belong to all societies, may initiate links with all individuals. In this setting the part of the current network within each connected component of the cover is assumed to be common knowledge to all players in that component. Based on this two-ingredient model, network and societal cover, we examine the impact of societal constraints on stable/efficient architectures and on dynamics.

The Survival of the Conformist: Social Pressure and Renewable Resource Management

29 Sep 2010

This paper examines the role of pro-social behavior as a mechanism for the establishment and maintenance of cooperation in resource use under variable social and environmental conditions. By coupling resource stock dynamics with social dynamics concerning compliance to a social norm prescribing non-excessive resource extraction in a common pool resource (CPR), we show that when reputational considerations matter and a sufficient level of social stigma affects the violators of a norm, sustainable outcomes are achieved. We find large parameter regions where norm-observing and norm-violating types coexist, and analyze to what extent such coexistence depends on the environment.

Diffusion of Innovations on Community Based Small Worlds: the Role of Correlation between Social Spheres

28 Sep 2010

Which types of networks favor the diffusion of innovations in the sense that an innovation whose intrinsic benefits are greater than those of an established choice will be able to replace the latter when it is initially used only by a small fraction of a large population? For deterministic and regular networks there are characterizations, based on a coordination game model of the diffusion of innovations. Here we study this question for a class of irregular random networks, Small world networks, which are of interest as more realistic models of social networks. We consider a random graph model based on a community structure, in which the choice of a parameter allows us to obtain as special cases several well known models, in particular Watts' Small world. We show that there are different types of Small World graphs some which favor diffusion, others that do not. Our study suggests that the kinds of ties that exist between different communities of an individual play an important role. We interpret Watts' Small World as one with high correlation between social spheres of individuals and favorable to diffusion. In other Small Worlds where the communities of individuals are uncorrelated diffusion succeeds only for very large payoff benefits in favor of the innovation.

Group Bargaining and Conflict

27 Sep 2010

We consider a situation where groups negotiate over the allocation of a surplus (which is used to fund group specific goods). Each group is composed of agents who have differing valuations for public goods. Members choose a representative to take decisions on their behalf. Specifically, representatives can decide to enter either a (cooperative) negotiation protocol or a conflict to appropriate the surplus. In the cooperative negotiations, disagreement corresponds to a pro rata allocation (as a function of the size of the groups). We analyse the conditions (on the internal composition of the groups) under which conflict will be preferred to negotiated agreements (and vice versa), and we derive welfare implications. Finally, we provide results of comparative statics that highlight the influence of changes in the internal composition of groups and in their relative size on the profitability of negotiated agreements.

Stochastic Stability in the Best Shot Game

26 Sep 2010

The best shot game applied to networks is a discrete model of many processes of contribution to local public goods. It has generally a wide multiplicity of equilibria that we refine through stochastic stability. In this paper we show that, depending on how we define perturbations, i.e. the possible mistakes that agents can make, we can obtain very different sets of stochastically stable equilibria. In particular and non-trivially, if we assume that the only possible source of error is that of an agent contributing that stops doing so, then the only stochastically stable equilibria are those in which the maximal number of players contributes.

The Paradox of New Members in the EU Council of Ministers: A Non-cooperative Bargaining Analysis

25 Sep 2010

Power indices suggest that adding new members to a voting body may increase the power of an existing member, even if the number of votes of all existing members and the decision rule remain constant. This phenomenon is known as the paradox of new members. This paper uses the leading model of majoritarian bargaining and shows that the paradox is predicted in equilibrium for past EU enlargements. Furthermore, a majority of members would have been in favor of the 1981 enlargement even if members were bargaining over a fixed budget.

Status-Seeking in Hedonic Games with Heterogeneous Players

23 Sep 2010

We study hedonic games with heterogeneous player types that reflect her nationality, ethnic background, or skill type. Agents' preferences are dictated by status-seeking where status can be either local or global. The two dimensions of status define the two components of a generalized constant elasticity of substitution utility function. In this setting, we characterize the core as a function of the utility's parameter values and show that in all cases the corresponding cores are non-empty. We further discuss the core stable outcomes in terms of their segregating versus integrating properties.

Harmful Signaling in Matching Markets

22 Sep 2010

Some labor markets have recently developed formal signalling mechanisms, e.g. the signalling for interviews in the job market for new Ph.D. economists. We evaluate the effect of such mechanisms on two-sided matching markets by considering a game of incomplete information between firms and workers. Workers have almost aligned preferences over firms: each worker has “typical” commonly known preferences with probability close to one and “atypical” idiosyncratic preferences with the complementary probability close to zero. Firms have some commonly known preferences over workers. We show that the introduction of a signalling mechanism is harmful for this environment. Though signals transmit previously unavailable information, they also facilitate information asymmetry that leads to coordination failures. As a result, the introduction of a signalling mechanism lessens the expected number of matches when signals are informative.

The Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma in a Network

21 Sep 2010

Imperfect private monitoring in an infinitely repeated discounted Prisoner’s Dilemma played on a communication network is studied. Players observe their direct neighbors’ behavior only, but communicate strategically the repeated game’s history throughout the network. The delay in receiving this information requires the players to be more patient to sustain the same level of cooperation as in a complete network, although a Folk Theorem obtains when the players are patient enough. All equilibria under exogenously imposed truth-telling extend to strategic communication, and additional ones arise due to richer communication. There are equilibria in which a player lies. The flow of information is related with network centrality measures.

Core-stable Rings in Second Price Auctions with Common Values

20 Sep 2010

In a common value auction in which the information partitions of the bidders are connected, all rings are core-stable. More precisely, the ex ante expected utilities of rings, at the (noncooperative) sophisticated equilibrium proposed by Einy, Haimanko, Orzach and Sela (Journal of Mathematical Economics, 2002), describe a cooperative game, in characteristic function form, in spite of the underlying strategic externalities. A ring is core-stable if the core of this characteristic function is not empty. Furthermore, every ring can implement its sophisticated equilibrium strategy by means of an incentive compatible mechanism.

Marketing via Friends: Strategic Diffusion of Information in Social Networks with Homophily

19 Sep 2010

The paper studies the impact of homophily on the optimal strategies of a monopolist, whose marketing campaign of new product relies on a word of mouth communication. Homophily is a tendency of people to interact more with those who are similar to them. In the model there are two types of consumers embedded into a social network, which differ in friendship preferences and desirable design of product. Consumers can learn about the product directly from an advertisement or from their neighbors. The monopolist chooses the product design and price to influence a pattern of communication among consumers. We find a number of results: (i) for low levels of homophily the product attractive to both types of consumers is preferred to specialized products; (ii) the price elasticity is increasing in homophily; (iii) an increase in the homophily benefits both the monopolist and consumers; and (iv) the product attractive to both types may be optimal even if the monopolist obtains profits only from sales to one type of consumers.

Spying in Multi-market Oligopolies

18 Sep 2010

We consider a multimarket framework where a set of firms compete on two interrelated oligopolistic markets. Prior to competing in these markets, firms can spy on others in order to increase the quality of their product. We characterize the equilibrium espionage networks and networks that maximize social welfare under the most interesting scenario of diseconomies of scope. We find that in some situations firms may refrain from spying even if it is costless. Moreover, even though spying leads to increased product quality, there exist situations where it is detrimental to both consumer welfare and social welfare.

Overlapping Coalitions, Bargaining and Networks

17 Sep 2010

This paper extends the theory of endogenous coalition formation, with complete information and transferable utility, to the overlapping case. We propose a cover function bargaining game which allows the formation of overlapping coalitions at equilibrium. We show the existence of subgame perfect equilibrium and provide an algorithm to compute this equilibrium in the symmetric case. As an application, we establish an interesting link with the formation of networks.

Internal Migration Across Italian regions: Macroeconomic Determinants and Accommodating Potential for a Dualistic Economy

16 Sep 2010

We provide econometric evidence that relative per capita GDP and relative unemployment rates are the main determinants of migration flows across Italian regions from 1970 to 2002. The empirical analysis is based on an accurate study of the dynamic properties of the series. In fact, we deal with the issues of non-stationarity and cointegration and estimate an error correction model in which both the short- and long-run dynamics are modelled at once. The regional unemployment rate is robustly inversely related with net regional migration rate, while per capita GDP is strongly positively linked with it. As far as the accommodating potential of internal migration to regional unbalances, we have detected very little room for such a role. Indeed, the degree of labour mobility across Italian regions cannot be active as an effective equilibrating mechanism.

Financial Innovation and Financial Fragility

15 Sep 2010

We present a standard model of financial innovation, in which intermediaries engineer securities with cash flows that investors seek, but modify two assumptions. First, investors (and possibly intermediaries) neglect certain unlikely risks. Second, investors demand securities with safe cash flows. Financial intermediaries cater to these preferences and beliefs by engineering securities perceived to be safe but exposed to neglected risks. Because the risks are neglected, security issuance is excessive. As investors eventually recognize these risks, they fly back to safety of traditional securities and markets become fragile, even without leverage, precisely because the volume of new claims is excessive. Financial innovation can make both investors and intermediaries worse off. The model mimics several facts from recent historical experiences, and points to new avenues for financial reform.

A Numerical Analysis of Optimal Extraction and Trade of Oil under Climate Policy

14 Sep 2010

We introduce endogenous investments for increasing conventional and non-conventional oil extraction capacity in the integrated assessment model WITCH. The international price of oil emerges as the Nash equilibrium of a non-cooperative game. When carbon emissions are not constrained, oil is used throughout the century, with unconventional oil taking over conventional oil from mid-century onward. When carbon emissions are constrained, oil consumption drops dramatically and the oil price is lower than in the BaU. Unconventional oil is not extracted. Regional imbalances in the distribution of stabilisation costs are magnified and the oil-exporting countries bear, on average, costs three times larger than in previous estimates.

In What Format and under What Timeframe Would China Take on Climate Commitments? A Roadmap to 2050

13 Sep 2010

In what format and under what timeframe China would take on climate commitments is of significant relevance to China because it is facing great pressure both inside and outside international climate negotiations to exhibit greater ambition and is being confronted with the threats of trade measures. It is of significant global relevance as well because when China’s emissions peak is crucial to determine when global emissions would peak and because what China is going to do in what format has significant implications for the level and ambition of commitments from other countries. In response to these concerns and to put China in a positive position, this paper maps out the roadmap for China’s specific climate commitments towards 2050. Taking many factors into consideration, the paper argues that China needs to take on absolute emissions caps around 2030. While this date is later than the time frame that the U.S. and other industrialized countries would like to see, it would probably still be too soon from China’s perspective. However, it is hard to imagine how China could apply the brakes so sharply as to switch from rapid emissions growth to immediate emissions cuts, without passing through several intermediate phases. To that end, the paper envisions that China needs the following three transitional periods of increasing climate obligations before taking on absolute emissions caps that will lead to the global convergence of per capita emissions by 2050: First, further credible energy-conservation commitments starting 2013 and aimed at cutting China’s carbon intensity by 45-50% by 2020; second, voluntary “no lose” emission targets starting 2018; and third, binding carbon intensity targets as its international commitment starting 2023. Overall, this proposal is a balanced reflection of respecting China’s rights to grow and recognizing China’s growing responsibility for increasing greenhouse gas emissions as China is approaching the world’s largest economy.

Biodiversity Valuation in Developing Countries: A Focus on Small Island Developing States (SIDS)

12 Sep 2010

The Millennium Development Goals explicitly recognise “sustainable development” as a target. A step towards this is a greater understanding of the significant role of biodiversity in rural communities of developing countries who depend most on the ecosystem goods and services and who as a result may suffer most from its continued degradation. Understanding the input of biodiversity in developing countries to the provision of the ecosystem goods and services (EGS) that are essential to their human well-being is seen as a significant first step in sustainable development, and environmental valuation is a necessary tool for achieving this objective. However, valuing biodiversity in a developing country context can be an intricate affair. While economic valuation literature yields a range of tried and tested methodological techniques for measuring biodiversity, the question remains as to whether these generalised techniques are capable of revealing the complexities of local environmental use in developing countries. A heterogeneous group, “developing countries” can be characterised by a range of factors existing in different intensities that can (1) impact the ways in which local communities interact with their environmental resources (2) impact the efficacy of the methodological and data collection process (3) impact the values obtained from the application of valuation techniques and (4) impact the implementation, success and sustainability of policy and management prescriptions. This paper attempts to address these issues by discussing the main characteristics of developing countries that can impact the biodiversity valuation process and, with specific reference to Small Island Developing States (SIDS), discussing how knowledge of these characteristics can assist the valuation process to better reveal the complex interaction between biodiversity and human welfare in a developing country context.

Path Dependence, Institutions and the Density of Economic Activities: Evidence from Italian Cities

11 Sep 2010

In recent years a growing body of literature has begun to consider the possible presence of path dependence in the development processes of countries. This phenomenon has always been recognized in regional and urban studies because the path of development almost naturally follows a history-dependent spatial diffusion influenced by both physical geography and the quality of institutions. In this paper, I consider the case of firm concentration in Italy and its impact on local development. A large and growing literature has argued in favour of persisting effects of past institutions on current outcomes. Hence, in order to identify the impact of firm density on income, I use instruments from the history of a set of Italian cities: namely the presence of a university and status as a free-city state in the Early Middle Ages. I first show that those two variables had an important effect on the process of urban development between 1300 and 1861, together with favourable geographic conditions. Then, when I use these instruments to predict firm density, I find that the elasticity of income to firm density is close to 0.1. This result is interpreted as providing evidence of the historical roots of agglomeration economies in Italy.

Social Responsibility as a Driver for Local Sustainable Development

10 Sep 2010

The increased interconnection among local and global players induced by globalization, as well as the need for a complete application of the “subsidiarity principle”, calls for a re-thinking of the “corporate social responsibility” concept. This new concept broadens the perspective of the single company interacting with its own stakeholders in relation to specific social and environmental impacts, to a network of organizations, with different aims and natures, collaborating on relevant sustainability issues. In this paper, the authors will provide a definition of “Territorial Social Responsibility”, sustaining the multi-stakeholder approach as a driver toward local sustainable development. Firstly, theoretical approaches to sustainable development at the territorial level will be examined, identifying the most innovative ideas about governance, network relation and development theories. The idea of development focuses not only on the economic aspects, but on the structural and institutional factors. The existence of cooperative territorial networks is essential to fulfil the creation of tangible and intangible assets at the local level. At the same time, the effectiveness of the decision-making and rules’ system can stimulate and empower territorial networks to tackle sustainable development. An analytical framework, scheme-shaped, will be set in order to identify the main aspects, indicators and practices characterizing the territorial social responsibility concept. It will represent a first attempt to create a feasible instrument aimed at understanding how cooperative social responsible actors, operating in the same territory, could direct the path toward sustainable development.

Environmental Performance and Regional Innovation Spillovers

09 Sep 2010

he achievement of positive environmental performance at national level could strongly depend on differences in local capabilities of both institutions and the private business sector. Environmental regulation alone is a weak instrument if the institutional and business environment cannot transform regulation strengths into opportunities. In this paper, we use the new environmental accounting matrix for polluting emissions now available for the 20 Italian Regions that covers 24 sectors and combines a shift-share approach with spatial econometric modelling. We provide evidence of the role played by internal innovation, innovation spillovers and regional policies in shaping the geographical distribution of environmental performance achievements.

The Impact of Unilateral Climate Policy with Endogenous Plant Location and Market Size Asymmetry

08 Sep 2010

This paper analyses the impact of unilateral climate policy on firms’ international location strategies in emission-intensive sectors, when countries differ in terms of market size. The cases of partial and total relocation via foreign direct investment are separately considered. A simple international duopoly model highlights the differences between short-term and long-term effects. In the short-term no change in location is a likely outcome in very capital-intensive sectors, and when there is a strategy shift this takes the form of partial instead of total relocation. In the long-run total relocation becomes a feasible outcome. However we found that, when tighter mitigation measures are introduced by the larger country and unit transport cost is high, with a pronounced market asymmetry the probability of firms not relocating abroad is high even in the long-term. The welfare implications of unilateral environmental measures are assessed considering global industrial pollution and accounting for shifts in location strategy.

Improving the Energy-Efficiency of Buildings: The Impact of Environmental Policy on Technological Innovation

07 Sep 2010

This paper investigates the impact of alternative environmental policy instruments on technological innovations aiming to improve energy-efficiency in buildings. The empirical analysis focuses on three main types of policy instruments, namely regulatory energy standards in buildings codes, energy taxes as captured by energy prices and specific governmental energy R&D expenditures. Technological innovation is measured using patent counts for specific technologies related to energy-efficiency in buildings (e.g. insulation, high-efficiency boilers, energy-saving lightings). The estimates for seven European countries over the 1989-2004 period imply that a strengthening of 10% of the minimum insulation standards for walls would increase the likelihood to file additional patents by about 3%. In contrast, energy prices have no significant effect on the likelihood to patent. Governmental energy R&D support has a small positive significant effect on patenting activities.

The Economic Impact of the Green Certificate Market through the Macro Multiplier Approach

06 Sep 2010

In the last decade, as many other European countries, the Italian Government adopted several reforms in order to increase the use of Renewable Energy Sources (RES). The liberalization of the electricity market that represents one of these reforms aims to reach environmental benefits from the substitution of fossil fuel with renewable sources. The Italian Green Certificate market was introduced in 2002 in order to accomplish this objective and represents a mechanism where a quota of renewable electricity is imposed to suppliers in proportion to their sales. The electricity industries are obliged to meet this condition by producing the quantity of renewable electricity by means of a change in their production process, otherwise they must buy a number of certificates corresponding to the quota. This mechanism changes the importance of the electricity industry first in promoting climate protection, then in terms of the impact on the economy as a whole. A policy aimed to develop the market of green certificates may lead to environmental improvement by switching the energy production process to renewable resources. But above all an increase in demand for green certificates, resulting from a reform on the quota of renewable electricity, can generate positive change in all components of the industrial production. For this purpose, the paper aims to quantify the economic impact of a reform on Green Certificate market for the Italian system by means of the Macro Multiplier (MM) approach. The analysis is performed through the Hybrid Input-Output (I-O) model that allows expressing the energy ows in physical terms (GWh) while all other ows are expressed in monetary terms (€). Moreover, through the singular value decomposition of the inverse matrix of the model, which reveals the set of key structures of the exogenous change of final demand, we identify the appropriate key structure able to obtain both the expected positive total output change and the increase of electricity production from RES.

Are Academics Messy? Testing the Broken Windows Theory with a Field Experiment in the Work Environment

05 Sep 2010

We study the broken windows theory with a field experiment in a shared area of a workplace in academia (department common room). We explore academics’ and postgraduate students’ behaviour under an order condition (clean environment) and a disorder condition (messy environment). We find strong support that signs of disorderly behaviour triggers littering. In the disorder treatment 59% of the subjects litter compared to 18% in the order condition. The results remain robust when controlling compared to previous studies for a large set of factors in a multivariate analysis. When academic staff members and postgraduate students observe that others violated the social norm of keeping the common room clean the probability of littering increases ceteris paribus by around 40 percent.

Risky Activities and Strict Liability Rules: Delegating Safe

04 Sep 2010

This paper studies the delegation of activities that pose serious risks to health and the environment in an economy regulated by strict liability schemes. Strict liability induces judgment-proof possibilities. Two civil liability regimes are then compared: a strict liability scheme and a capped strict liability one. The argument is led under a twofold asymmetric information assumption between the principal and the agent: the efficiency level in effort for safety and the agent’s level of wealth. The paper shows that standard strict liability under information asymmetries deters the efficient agent to compete and favors adverse selection. Then, under conditions, a capped strict liability regime is a better regime than a standard strict liability one because it induces the efficient agent to supply the level of safety effort equivalent to the first best solution. The counterpart is the perception of an informational rent by the efficient agent. At the optimum, this rent is minimized by the efficient contract supplied by the principal.

Liberalizing Climate-Friendly Goods and Technologies in the WTO: Product Coverage, Modalities, Challenges and the Way Forward

03 Sep 2010

The Doha Round Agenda (paragraph 31(3)) mandates to liberalize environmental goods and services. This mandate offers a good opportunity to put climate-friendly goods and services on a fast track to liberalization. Agreement on this paragraph should represent one immediate contribution that the WTO can make to fight against climate change. This paper presents the key issues surrounding liberalized trade in climate-friendly goods and technologies in WTO environmental goods negotiations. It begins with what products to liberalize and how. Clearly, WTO environmental goods negotiations to date show that WTO member countries are divided by this key issue. Focusing on the issue, the paper explores options available to liberalize trade in climate-friendly goods and technologies, both within and outside the WTO, and along with these discussions, discusses how to serve the best interests of developing countries.

On the Optimal Taxation of Common-Pool Resources

02 Sep 2010

Recent research developments in common-pool resource models emphasize the importance of links with ecological systems and the presence of non-linearities, thresholds and multiple steady states. In a recent paper Kossioris et al. (2008) develop a methodology for deriving feedback Nash equilibria for non-linear differential games and apply this methodology to a common-pool resource model of a lake where pollution corresponds to benefits and at the same time affects the ecosystem services. This paper studies the structure of optimal state- dependent taxes that steer the combined economic-ecological system towards the trajectory of optimal management, and provides an algorithm for calculating such taxes.

The Sustainability of Cultural Diversity. Nations, Cities and Organizations

01 Sep 2010

This engaging book addresses the question of how diverse communities, whether in a nation, city or organization, can live together and prosper whilst retaining and enjoying their cultural differences. This is a particularly pertinent issue in the context of the modern world where mass migration and immigration are pervasive global phenomena.

This volume brings together a series of contributors from various disciplines and cultural settings to address two central questions:

- how does cultural diversity contribute to or hamper central notions of sustainability such as human welfare, social cohesion or socio-economic development?

- how can cultural diversity unfold in a positive way through particular forms of interactions, processes and structures?

The authors offer a conceptual discussion on the meaning and operationalisation of sustainability within various contexts and settings. They provide concrete examples of the contribution of sustainable diversity to prosperous nations, communities and companies, but also identify a number of tensions which may undermine this positive potential. They highlight recognition, empowerment and inclusion as the three fundamental pillars on which policies should be built in order to create the necessary trust and legitimacy that provide the foundations for truly sustainable diversity.

Combining extensive theory and practice, this unique volume will be required reading for post-graduate students and researchers in a wide range of subjects connected to cultural diversity such as economics, sociology, anthropology, public policy and organisation studies.

Contributors: T. Baycan-Levent, M. Bechtoldt, E. Bellini, J. Betancur, A. Bitušíková, P. J. Bowman, F. Chiapparino, I. Christova-Balkanska, T. Damvakeraki, A. de Ruijter, J. P. Deru, M. Dragicevic Šešic, Y. Esmer, J. F. Galindo, R. Giulianelli, K. Hamde, M. Janssens, S. Küchler, R. Lo Conte, D. Luther, S. Romi Mukherjee, A. Nilsson, P. Nijkamp, G.I.P. Ottaviano, E. Pichler, D. Pinelli, A.-M. Poels, G. Prarolo, P. Riganti, O. Rousseau, H. Siebers, L. Simic, M. Steinhardt, V. Stenius, L. Tsipouri, Z. Uherek, S. van Londen, N. Wåhlin, P. Zanoni

The Solaria Syndrome: Social Capital in a Growing Hyper-technological Economy

26 Jun 2010

We develop a dynamic model to analyze the sources and the evolution of social participation and social capital in a growing economy characterized by exogenous technical progress. Starting from the assumption that the well-being of agents basically depends on material and relational goods, we show that the best-case scenarios hold when technology and social capital both support just one of the two productions at the expenses of the other. However, trajectories are possible where technology and social interaction balance one another in fostering the growth of both the social and the private sector of the economy. Along such tracks, technology may play a crucial role in supporting a “socially sustainable” economic growth.

Innovation and Institutional Ownership

25 Jun 2010

We find that institutional ownership in publicly traded companies is associated with more innovation (measured by cite-weighted patents). To explore the mechanism through which this link arises, we build a model that nests the lazy-manager hypothesis with career-concerns, where institutional owners increase managerial incentives to innovate by reducing the career risk of risky projects. The data supports the career concerns model. First, whereas the lazy manager hypothesis predicts a substitution effect between institutional ownership and product market competition (and managerial entrenchment generally), the career-concern model allows for complementarity. Empirically, we reject substitution effects. Second, CEOs are less likely to be fired in the face of profit downturns when institutional ownership is higher. Finally, using instrumental variables, policy changes and disaggregating by type of owner we find that the effect of institutions on innovation does not appear to be due to endogenous selection.

Interactions between State and Federal Climate Change Policies

24 Jun 2010

Federal action addressing climate change is likely to emerge either through new legislation or via the U.S. EPA’s authority under the Clean Air Act. The prospect of federal action raises important questions regarding the interconnections between federal efforts and state-level climate policy developments. In the presence of federal policies, to what extent will state efforts be cost-effective? How does the co-existence of state- and federal-level policies affect the ability of state efforts to achieve emissions reductions? This paper addresses these questions. We find that state-level policy in the presence of a federal policy can be beneficial or problematic, depending on the nature of the overlap between the two systems, the relative stringency of the efforts, and the types of policy instruments engaged. When the federal policy sets limits on aggregate emissions quantities, or allows manufacturers or facilities to average performance across states, the emission reductions accomplished by a subset of U.S. states may reduce pressure on the constraints posed by the federal policy, thereby freeing facilities or manufacturers to increase emissions in other states. This leads to serious “emissions leakage” and a loss of cost-effectiveness at the national level. In contrast, when the federal policy sets prices for emissions or does not allow manufactures to average performance across states, these difficulties are usually avoided. Even in circumstances involving problematic interactions, there may be other attractions of state-level climate policy. We evaluate a number of arguments that have been made to support state-level climate policy in the presence of federal policies, even when problematic interactions arise.

Interactions between State and Federal Climate Change Policies

24 Jun 2010

Three Key Elements of Post-2012 International Climate Policy Architecture

23 Jun 2010

We describe three essential elements of an effective post-2012 international global climate policy architecture: a means to ensure that key industrialized and developing nations are involved in differentiated but meaningful ways; an emphasis on an extended time path of targets; and inclusion of flexible market-based policy instruments to keep costs down and facilitate international equity. This architecture is consistent with fundamental aspects of the science, economics, and politics of global climate change; addresses specific shortcomings of the Kyoto Protocol; and builds upon the foundation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Annual Report 2009

23 Jun 2010

On June 7, 2009 Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei celebrated its 20th anniversary, a key milestone in FEEM’s history, witnessing our long standing commitment to excellence in scientific research. Indeed, the results of these first twenty years are impressive: almost 2,000 working papers published, 66 books, 50 events organized on average per year, and the creation of an international network of about 100 researchers working to advance the frontiers of knowledge on sustainable development.

Far-sighted intuitions in the research agenda, continuous support from our founders, and a lean organization have been important ingredients for our success. But the results achieved would have been impossible without the passion, imagination and efforts of our researchers. To them goes our utmost gratitude, with the hope of an equally deserving future.

But 2009 was certainly not spent on celebrations. Research advanced well within the new programmes, the communication plan was fully implemented with significant improvements in outreach, our branch in Basilicata started operating at full steam, and the renovation of FEEM’s new offices in Venice in the prestigious Island of San Giorgio Maggiore has been nearly completed.

While 2009 has been a successful year for the Fondazione, the same cannot be said for the global economy which has gone through one of the most severe contractions of the post-war period. The financial crisis has apparently been left behind, but it has quickly turned into a real and social crisis, due to the dramatic effects on unemployment. The extraordinary measures taken by the governments have posed the issue of the sustainability of sovereign debt even in the most developed economies. Within a context of distressed public finances, non profit institutions such as FEEM will be increasingly called upon to give their contribution to a welfare society where the private sector will play a leading role, in particular in the fields of training and research. The Fondazione will take up this new challenge by streamlining activity, aiming at maximizing efficiency and impact under our budget constraints.

While this report goes to press, the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is causing one of the most severe ecological disasters reported in recent times, affecting industry, policy and behaviors for years to come. Environment, energy and sustainability will thus remain the focus of our future research agenda, maintaining a plurality of perspectives which has always been a distinct trait of FEEM’s activities. We are confident that with the support of our founders and the enthusiasm of our researchers and staff, FEEM will contribute to face the monumental, multigenerational global challenges we are confronted with today.

Bernardo Bortolotti
FEEM Executive Director

The Optimal Climate Policy Portfolio when Knowledge Spills Across Sectors

22 Jun 2010

This paper studies the implications for climate policy of the interactions between environmental and knowledge externalities. Using a numerical analysis performed with the hybrid integrated assessment model WITCH, extended to include mutual spillovers between the energy and the non-energy sector, we show that the combination between environmental and knowledge externalities provides a strong rationale for implementing a portfolio of policies for both emissions reduction and the internalisation of knowledge externalities. Moreover, we show that implementing technology policy as a substitute for stabilisation policy is likely to increase global emissions.

Deforestation and Climate Change. Reducing Carbon Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation

22 Jun 2010

Deforestation and forest degradation have long been recognized as environmental problems, with concerns over conservation of natural habitats and biological diversity capturing both scientific and public attention. More recently, the debate over tropical forest conservation has radically shifted to the approximately fifteen percent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that are caused by deforestation and forest degradation, and to the potential synergies from integrating forest management with climate change policies.
The goal of this book is to shed light on some of the major concerns, issues and challenges related to the inclusion of forest carbon in international climate policies, as well as to illustrate some of the potential solutions and paths forward. In addition, the book describes the status of REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) in international climate policy negotiations, providing an historical perspective and highlighting the current positions of key international players that will frame the future debate at the national, regional, and international level.
This volume will find a broad readership among researchers and policy makers interested in the environment, climate change and resource management.

Contributors: Kentaro Aoki, André Aquino, Federica Bietta, Hannes Boettcher, Valentina Bosetti, Benoît Bosquet, William Boyd, Andrea Cattaneo, Graham Floater, Steffen Fritz, Alexander Golub, Mykola Gusti, Petr Havlik, Georg Kindermann, Raymond Kopp, Florian Kraxner, Lou Leonard, Ruben Lubowski, Ian McCallum, Michael Obersteiner, Stefano Pagiola, Pedro Piris-Cabezas, Rey Juan Carlos, Nigel Purvis, Ewald Rametsteiner, Belinda Reyers, Duncan Stone

Investing in a Low-Carbon Power Sector

21 Jun 2010

In this policy brief we present and discuss recent research that analyzes the financial requirements to decarbonize the power sector.
We find that climate policy will not induce higher investments in the power sector with respect to those needed in the Reference scenario, i.e. the one occurring in the absence of climate policy, mainly because higher average investment costs in electricity generation are offset by a contraction of electricity demand. Thus, according to our work, a low-carbon world seems not to require higher investments. It rather requires a shift of resources towards a totally new technological mix.
This does not mean that the transition will not be costly from a macroeconomic point of view. Rather, it indicates that the costs will come from the necessary re-adjustment of our economies and not from higher financial needs in the power sector.
We show that criticalities will possibly emerge when investments have to be diverted –in a relatively short time frame– towards intrinsically complex and risky technologies (e.g. carbon capture and sequestration). These financial requirements, although costly, appear to be manageable from a financial point of view.
We suggest that governments can play a great role to smooth the transition to a low-carbon power sector by reducing the risk associated to the new technologies. In particular, we propose that revenues from auctioning carbon emissions permits are used to finance a sort of insurance fund for the power sector.

The Impact of Mergers on the Degree of Competition in the Banking Industry

20 Jun 2010

This paper analyses the relation between competition and concentration in the banking sector. The empirical answer is given by testing a monopolistic competition model of bank branching behaviour on individual bank data at county level (départements and provinces) in France and Italy. We propose a measure of the degree of competiveness in each local market that is function also of market structure indicators. We then use the econometric model to evaluate the impact of horizontal mergers among incumbent banks on competition and discuss when, depending on the pre-merger structure of the market and geographic distribution of branches, the merger is anti-competitive. The paper has implications for competition policy as it suggests an applied tool to evaluate the potential anti-competitive impact of mergers.

On the Green Side of Trade Competitiveness? Environmental Policies and Innovation in the EU

19 Jun 2010

This paper aims to explore how the competitiveness of the EU economy, here captured by export dynamics over the medium run (1996-2007), has been affected by environmental regulation both on the public and private sector side. The strong and weak versions of the Porter hypothesis are tested by specifying the export dynamics of five aggregated manufacturing sectors classified by their technological or environmental content using a dynamic panel data estimator applied to a theoretically-based gravity model. When testing the strong version on export performances of manufacturing sectors, the overall effect of environmental policies does not conflict with export competitiveness. When testing the weak version using export flows of environmental goods, environmental policies, as well as innovation activities, all foster competitive advantages of green exports. Public policies and private innovation patterns trigger higher efficiency in the production process, thus turning the perception of environmental protection actions as a production cost into a net benefit. These results constitute useful advice for policy makers involved in the new wave of environmental tax reforms and green recovery packages currently debated at European Union level.

The Environment and Directed Technical Change

19 Jun 2010

This paper introduces endogenous and directed technical change in a growth model with environmental constraints. A unique final good is produced by combining inputs from two sectors. One of these sectors uses "dirty" machines and thus creates environmental degradation. Research can be directed to improving the technology of machines in either sector. We characterize dynamic tax policies that achieve sustainable growth or maximize intertemporal welfare. We show that: (i) in the case where the inputs are sufficiently substitutable, sustainable long-run growth can be achieved with temporary taxation of dirty innovation and production; (ii) optimal policy involves both “carbon taxes” and research subsidies, so that excessive use of carbon taxes is avoided; (iii) delay in intervention is costly: the sooner and the stronger is the policy response, the shorter is the slow growth transition phase; (iv) the use of an exhaustible resource in dirty input production helps the switch to clean innovation under laissez-faire when the two inputs are substitutes. Under reasonable parameter values and with sufficient substitutability between inputs, it is optimal to redirect technical change towards clean technologies immediately and optimal environmental regulation need not reduce long-run growth.

Assessing China’s Energy Conservation and Carbon Intensity: How Will the Future Differ from the Past?

18 Jun 2010

As an important step towards building a “harmonious society” through “scientific development”, China has incorporated for the first time in its five-year economic plan an energy input indicator as a constraint. While it achieved a quadrupling of its GDP while cutting its energy intensity by about three quarters between 1980 and 2000, China has had limited success in achieving its own 20% energy-saving goal set for 2010 to date. Despite this great challenge at home, just prior to the Copenhagen climate summit, China pledged to cut its carbon intensity by 40-45% by 2020 relative its 2005 levels to help to reach an international climate change agreement at Copenhagen or beyond. This raises the issue of whether such a pledge is ambitious or just represents business as usual. To put China’s climate pledge into perspective, this paper examines whether this proposed carbon intensity goal for 2020 is as challenging as the energy-saving goals set in the current 11th five-year economic blueprint, to what extent it drives China’s emissions below its projected baseline levels, and whether China will fulfill its part of a coordinated global commitment to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere at the desirable level. Given that China’s pledge is in the form of carbon intensity, the paper shows that GDP figures are even more crucial to the impacts on the energy or carbon intensity than are energy consumption and emissions data by examining the revisions of China’s GDP figures and energy consumption in recent years. Moreover, the paper emphasizes that China’s proposed carbon intensity target not only needs to be seen as ambitious, but more importantly it needs to be credible. Given that China has shifted control over resources and decision making to local governments as the result of the economic reforms during the past three decades, the paper argues the need to carefully examine those objective and subjective factors that lead to the lack of local official’s cooperation on the environment, and concludes that their cooperation, and strict implementation and coordination of the policies and measures enacted are of paramount importance to meeting China’s existing energy-saving goal in 2010, its proposed carbon intensity target in 2020 and whatever climate commitments beyond 2020 that China may take.

Copenhagen and Beyond: Reflections on China’s Stance and Responses

17 Jun 2010

China had been singled out by Western politicians and media for dragging its feet on international climate negotiations at Copenhagen, the accusations previously always targeted on the U.S. To put such a criticism into perspective, this paper provides some reflections on China’s stance and reactions at Copenhagen. While China’s reactions are generally well rooted because of realities at home, some reactions could have been handled more effectively for a better image of China. The paper also addresses the reliability of China’s statistics on energy and GDP, the issue crucial to the reliability of China’s carbon intensity commitments. The paper discusses flaws in current international climate negotiations and closes with my suggestion that international climate negotiations need to focus on 2030 as the targeted date.

A Theory of Firm Decline

16 Jun 2010

This paper carries out an investigation into the socio-economic determinants of couples’ childbearing decisions in Italy. Since having children is in most cases a “couple matter”, the analysis accounts for the characteristics of both the possible parents. Our results do not support established theoretical predictions according to which the increase in the opportunity cost of motherhood connected to higher female labour participation is responsible for the fall in fertility. On the contrary, the instability of the women’s work status (i.e. their being occasional, precarious, and low-paid workers) reveals to be a significant dissuasive deterrent discouraging the decision to have children. Couples with unemployed women are less likely to plan childbearing as well. Other relevant explanatory variables are current family size and the strength of family ties.

Executive Compensation: Facts

15 Jun 2010

In this paper we describe the important features of executive compensation in the US from 1993 to 2006. Some confirm what has been found for earlier periods and some are novel. Notable facts are that: the compensation distribution is highly skewed; each year, a sizeable fraction of chief executives lose money; the use of security grants has increased over time; the income accruing to CEOs from the sale of stock increased; regardless of the measure we adopt, compensation responds strongly to innovations in shareholder wealth; measured as dollar changes in compensation, incentives have strengthened over time, measured as percentage changes in wealth, they have not changed in any appreciable way.

A Theory of Firm Decline

14 Jun 2010

We study the problem of an investor that buys an equity stake in an entrepreneurial venture, under the assumption that the former cannot monitor the latter’s operations. The dynamics implied by the optimal incentive scheme is rich and quite different from that induced by other models of repeated moral hazard. In particular, our framework generates a rationale for firm decline. As young firms accumulate capital, the claims of both investor (outside equity) and entrepreneur (inside equity) increase. At some juncture, however, even as the latter keeps on growing, invested capital and firm value start declining and so does the value of outside equity. The reason is that incentive provision is costlier the wealthier the entrepreneur (the greater is inside equity). In turn, this leads to a decline in the constrained–efficient level of effort and therefore to a drop in the return to investment.

A Theory of Firm Decline

14 Jun 2010

Traditional Representations of the Natural Environment and Biodiversity Conservation: Sacred Groves in Ghana

13 Jun 2010

Local cosmologies and traditional perceptions of the natural environment, especially forests, have been a major influence in the management of the natural resources and biodiversity amongst rural communities in the transitional zone of Ghana. Sacred groves, which are typical outputs of traditional conservation practices, derive from indigenous religious beliefs and perceptions of forest. Sacred groves are believed to be the abode of local gods, ancestral spirits and other super natural beings. These beliefs and perceptions have in the past strongly supported the conservation of biodiversity. However, changes in local cosmologies threaten the protection of rare species, habitats and ecological processes. Data from the study confirm evidence from several studies in Ghana and elsewhere in West Africa that the tremendous ecological, social, institutional, religious and economic changes in communities that have protected sacred groves threaten the survival of these cultural artefacts. The paper demonstrates that in contemporary natural resources management, the sacred grove model may still be used as a means of restoring and protecting landscapes in indigenous communities. Even in communities where population explosion and economic pressures have reached thresholds that undermine the natural landscape, the model may still be useful to keep pockets of forests within the landscape.

The Benefits of Contaminated Site Cleanup Revisited: The Case of Naples and Caserta, Italy

12 Jun 2010

Guerriero and Cairns (2009) recently estimate that contaminated sites and improper waste management result in 848 excess deaths per year in the provinces of Naples and Caserta in Southern Italy, 403 of which are fatal cancers. In the absence of estimates of the Value of a Prevented Fatality (VPF) in Italy or specific to the hazardous waste context, they use figures recommended by DG-Environment. Contrary to their claims, estimates of the VPF are available for Italy that are specific to the hazardous waste context, and for causes of death that have been linked to contaminated site exposures. We review them in this paper. We also produce new estimates of the cancer VPF using data from a recent survey conducted in Milan, Italy, in late November to mid-December 2008. The evidence points to much higher VPF figures than the ones used by Guerriero and Cairns, and hence to much larger estimates of the reduced mortality benefits of remediating the hazardous waste in the Naples and Caserta areas. We also examine the importance of the discount rates, since the mortality benefits of remediation begin in 20 years and are assumed to continue over 30 years.

What is the Value of Hazardous Weather Forecasts? Evidence from a Survey of Backcountry Skiers

11 Jun 2010

What is the value of hazardous weather warnings? To answer this question, we focus on the avalanche bulletin for Switzerland issued by the WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research (SLF). We take a survey-based, non-market valuation approach to estimating the value of hypothetical improvements in avalanche forecasting. We focus on backcountry skiers because (i) safety is arguably the most important type of benefit associated with the avalanche bulletin, (ii) they voluntarily undertake risks, and (iii) they perceive themselves and are generally perceived by others as skilled in avoiding risks. The respondents’ willingness to pay (WTP) for the improved services ranges between CHF 42 to 46, implying a mean value of statistical life (VSL) of CHF 1.75 million. We find that WTP increases with income and is higher among Swiss nationals and those who rate the current bulletin “useful.” Risk-tolerant individuals, persons who assessed their personal risk as lower than average, professional guides, and those who perceive themselves as proficient in using the existing bulletin report lower WTP figures. This suggests that the monetized value that people place on the enhanced bulletin reflects how productive these individuals are (or think they are) in using information to avoid avalanche risks.

Community-based Adaptation: Lessons from the Development Marketplace 2009 on Adaptation to Climate Change

10 Jun 2010

The Development Marketplace 2009 focused on adaptation to climate change. This paper identifies lessons from the Marketplace and assesses their implications for adaptation support. Our findings are based on: statistical tabulation of all proposals; in-depth qualitative and quantitative analysis of the 346 semi-finalists; and interviews with finalists and assessors. Proposals were fuelled by deep concerns that ongoing climate change and its impacts undermine development and exacerbate poverty, migration and food insecurity. Proposals addressed both local poverty and climate change challenges, and offered a wide range of approaches to render local development more resilient to current climate variability. Therefore, support to community-based adaptation should: exploit its strong local grounding and synergies with development; help connect local initiatives to higher levels; and use complementary approaches to address policy issues.

Improving Education as Key to Enhancing Adaptive Capacity in Developing Countries

07 Jun 2010

This paper summarizes new scientific evidence supporting the hypothesis that among the many factors contributing to international development, the combination of education and health stands out as a root cause on which other dimensions of development depend. Much of this recent analysis is based on new reconstructions and projections of populations by age, sex and four levels of educational attainment for more than 120 countries using the demographic method of multi-state population dynamics. It also refers to a series of systems analytical population–development–environment case studies that comprehensively assess the role of population and education factors relative to other factors in the struggle for sustainable development. The paper also claims that most concerns about the consequences of population trends are in fact concerns about human capital, and that only by adding the ‘quality’ dimension of education to the traditionally narrow focus on size and age structure can some of the long-standing population controversies be resolved.

Assessing the Role of Microfinance in Fostering Adaptation to Climate Change

06 Jun 2010

Much of the current policy debate on adaptation to climate change has focussed on estimation of adaptation costs, ways to raise and to scale-up funding for adaptation, and the design of the international institutional architecture for adaptation financing. There is however little or no emphasis so far on actual delivery mechanisms to channel these resources at the sub-national level, particularly to target the poor who are also often the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. It is in this context that microfinance merits a closer look. This paper offers the first empirical assessment of the linkages between microfinance supported activities and adaptation to climate change. Specifically, the lending portfolios of the 22 leading microfinance institutions in two climate vulnerable countries – Bangladesh and Nepal - are analysed to assess the synergies and potential conflicts between microfinance and adaptation. The two countries had also been previously examined as part of an earlier OECD report on the links between macro-level Official Development Assistance and adaptation. This analysis provides a complementary “bottom-up” perspective on financing for adaptation. Insights from this analysis also have implications for OECD countries. This is because microfinance is also being increasingly tapped to reduce the vulnerability of the poor in domestic OECD contexts as well and may therefore have the potential to contribute to adaptation. The paper identifies areas of opportunity where microfinance could be harnessed to play a greater role in fostering adaptation, as well as its limitations in this context. It also explores the linkage between the top-down macro-financing for adaptation through international financial mechanisms and the bottom-up activities that can be implemented through microfinance.

The Effect of Risk, Ambiguity and Coordination on Farmers’ Adaptation to Climate Change: A Framed Field Experiment

05 Jun 2010

The risk of losses of income and productive means due to adverse weather associated to climate change can significantly differ between farmers sharing a productive landscape. It is important to learn more about how farmers react to different levels of risk, under measurable and unmeasurable uncertainty. Moreover, the costs associated to investments in reduced vulnerability to climatic events are likely to exhibit economies of scope. We explore these issues using a framed field experiment that captures realistically the main characteristics of production, and the likely weather related losses of premium coffee farmers in Tarrazu, Costa Rica. Given that the region recently was severely hit by an extreme, albeit very infrequent, climatic event, we expected to observe, and found high levels of risk aversion, but we do observe farmers making trade-offs under different risk levels. Although hard to disentangle at first sight given the high level of risk aversion, we find that farmers opt more frequently for safe options in a setting characterized by unknown risk. Finally, we find that farmers to a large extent are able to coordinate their decisions in order to achieve a lower cost of adaptation, and that communication among farmers strongly facilitates coordination.

The Effect of Allowance Allocations on Cap-and-Trade System Performance

04 Jun 2010

We examine an implication of the “Coase Theorem” which has had an important impact both on environmental economics and on public policy in the environmental domain. Under certain conditions, the market equilibrium in a cap-and-trade system will be cost-effective and independent of the initial allocation of tradable rights. That is, the overall cost of achieving a given aggregate emission reduction will be minimized, and the final allocation of permits will be independent of the initial allocation. We call this the independence property. This property is very important because it allows equity and efficiency concerns to be separated in a relatively straightforward manner. In particular, the property means that the government can establish the overall pollution-reduction goal for a cap-and-trade system by setting the cap, and leave it up to the legislature – such as the U.S. Congress – to construct a constituency in support of the program by allocating the allowances to various interests without affecting either the environmental performance of the system or its aggregate social costs. Our primary objective in this paper is to examine the conditions under which the independence property is likely to hold – both in theory and in practice. A number of factors can call the independence property into question theoretically, including market power, transaction costs, non-cost-minimizing behavior, and conditional allowance allocations. We find that, in practice, there is support for the independence property in some, but not all cap-and-trade applications.

Fede e mercato: verso una via islamica al capitalismo?

03 Jun 2010

Questo volume esplora le complesse interazioni tra Islam ed economia globale, esaminando in particolare la «moral economy» dell’Islam, la nascita delle banche islamiche e lo sviluppo della borghesia islamista. Riconoscere le pratiche economiche come mondi simbolici vivi, come costruzioni sociali scaturite dalle nozze mistiche tra forze produttive e forme simboliche, significa porre le premesse dello svelamento di un mondo solo in apparenza disincantato. L’antropologia e la storia economica si configurano allora come strumenti ideali per operare un processo di riscoperta della cultura e del sacro nascosti dietro l’apparente reificazione dell’economia. Scopo di questo studio è dimostrare come i musulmani abbiano intrapreso un profondo processo di riformulazione della propria identità a contatto con le società capitalistiche occidentali. L’esperienza dell’Islam contemporaneo dimostra che la globalizzazione non spinge verso l’adeguamento passivo e l’omologazione, bensì verso una reazione dei mondi vitali delle persone. In questo contesto, la società civile è il luogo in cui è possibile osservare non solo l’avanzare di un pervasivo processo di islamizzazione, ma anche la trasformazione dell’Islam da religione tradizionale a ideologia.

International Environmental Agreements under Uncertainty: Does the Veil of Uncertainty Help?

02 Jun 2010

Na and Shin (1998) showed that the veil of uncertainty can be conducive to the success of self-enforcing international environmental agreements. Later papers confirmed this negative conclusion about the role of learning. In the light of intensified research efforts worldwide to reduce uncertainty about the environmental impact of emissions and the cost of reducing them, this conclusion is intriguing. The purpose of this paper is threefold. First, we analyze whether the result carries over to a more general setting without restriction on the number of players and which considers not only no and full learning but also partial learning. Second, we test whether the conclusion also holds if there is uncertainty about abatement costs instead of uncertainty about the benefits from global abatement. Third, we propose a transfer scheme that mitigates the possible negative effect of learning and which may even transform it into a positive effect.

Illiquidity and all its Friends

01 Jun 2010

The recent crisis was characterized by massive illiquidity. This paper reviews what we know and don't know about illiquidity and all its friends: market freezes, fire sales, contagion, and ultimately insolvencies and bailouts. It first explains why liquidity cannot easily be apprehended through a single statistics, and asks whether liquidity should be regulated given that a capital adequacy requirement is already in place. The paper then analyzes market breakdowns due to either adverse selection or shortages of financial muscle, and explains why such breakdowns are endogenous to balance sheet choices and to information acquisition. It then looks at what economics can contribute to the debate on systemic risk and its containment. Finally, the paper takes a macroeconomic perspective, discusses shortages of aggregate liquidity and analyses how market value accounting and capital adequacy should react to asset prices. It concludes with a topical form of liquidity provision, monetary bailouts and recapitalizations, and analyses optimal combinations thereof; it stresses the need for macro-prudential policies.

PB Annual Report 2009

26 May 2010

What a year 2009 was for privatization worldwide! One year after witnessing massive injections of government capital into financial systems, 2009 saw a record volume of state sales of corporate equity -- or, stated more accurately, a record volume of corporate repurchases of government-owned shares. Privatization proceeds totaled a record €184.30 billion ($265.17 billion) during 2009, but bank repurchases of government holdings of preferred shares accounted for €118.46 billion ($168.8 billion) of this record -- or almost two-thirds of the total. Besides the bank share repurchases, the global value of "classic" privatization deals during 2009 totaled only €65.84 billion ($96.29 billion), the lowest such tally since 2004. The year 2009 was, far more than is usually the case, a tale of two very dissimilar halves. The value of all privatizations worldwide during 1H2009 totaled about €67 billion ($95 billion) -- including the €48.2 billion ($68.0 billion) U.S. bank repurchases of TARP capital -- while the €117 billion ($171 billion) second half total was nearly twice as large.

FEEM-Monitor SWF Annual Report 2009

17 May 2010

From the Editors Bernardo Bortolotti, FEEM Executive Director and William F. Miracky, Senior Partner, Monitor Group.

In 2008 FEEM and Monitor established a partnership to develop a database of SWF transactions based on publicly available information that would be as complete and comprehensive as possible. As of December 31, 2009, the Monitor-FEEM SWF Transaction Database contains 1,181 deals completed by 22 funds based in 14 countries since January 1, 1981. New funds added to our database during the year included Abu Dhabi’s International Petroleum Investment Company and the Oman Investment Fund. We are also adding three new funds to track from 2010: China’s National Social Security Fund; Ireland’s National Pensions Reserve Fund; and the New Zealand Superannuation Fund.

2009 opened to the most challenging economic and financial climate since the Great depression. With slowing income from plummeting oil prices and contracting global trade in 2008, the volatile investment climate made sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) more risk averse. The beginning of the year saw the lowest levels of publicly reported SWF investment for half a decade as they continued to be cautious actors in the global economy, scaling back their acquisitions to reflect their perception of increased market risk. This was exacerbated by SWFs suffering mark-to-market losses of an estimated $67 billion on their investments in publicly-listed companies by the end of Q1 2009, and some SWFs stepping in to bail out their countries’ faltering financial service sectors.

During 2009, funds in the Monitor-FEEM SWF Transaction Database executed 113 deals worth $68.8 billion. This represented a sharp break on the trend of increasing SWF activity, with both the number and value of investments about 40 percent below totals in 2008.

SWFs invested considerably less in financial services in 2009 than in 2008, dropping from 49 publicly reported investments valued at $81.7 billion to just 28 deals with a reported value of only $10.2 billion. They were also more cautious in real estate acquisitions, with activity dropping by more than half. Instead, they looked to invest in a wider range of sectors, most notably in energy, natural resources and engineering- or technology-based sectors. This bears greater similarity to the patterns characterizing SWF behaviour before 2005, although the sectors of interest reflect current economic realities.

Continuing the trend from 2008, Europe remained the largest market for SWF investment in terms of recorded value, despite the financial crisis. European targets accounted for 42.5 percent by value of 2009’s publicly reported SWF investment ($29.2 billion), about a third of the reported value from 2008. SWFs also invested more widely in 2009, with investment in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa and Non-Pacific Asia doubling in real terms to $3 billion.

Once more Asia Pacific accounted for the largest number of investments (32) in 2009. Europe was the second most popular region for SWFs (29) transactions. MENA overtook North America in terms of investment volume, with 21 deals against North America’s 19, most of which took place in the final quarter of the year.

The most active funds were the China Investment Corporation and the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation, making 17 and 18 publicly reported investments, respectively. However, the largest spending fund was the Qatar Investment Authority, which undertook 14 publicly reported investments valued at over $32 billion.

The inhospitable global economy at the end of 2008 manifested itself in our data in Q1 and Q2 2009—both quarters were the lowest investment volumes since 2005 and 2003, respectively. SWF activity picked up during the second half of the year, with Q3 and Q4 accounting for 85 percent of publicly reported expenditure and two-thirds of the total number of deals.

These and other significant trends and highlights of 2009 are spelled out below. This report also includes sections introduced last year that we expect to be standards in the annual reports going forward. These include separate highlights of SWF activity in the fourth quarter, a timeline of significant news and events of the year, a table of the year’s biggest deals, and an overview of recent noteworthy publications about SWFs.

This report includes important articles from leading SWF commentators: Ashby H. B. Monk, co-director of the Oxford SWF Project, who analyzes the potential for SWFs to redirect and re-allocate vast sums of money globally toward longer-term, relatively risky investments; Vanessa Rossi of Chatham House assesses the future role of SWFs in the global economy; Steffen Kern from Deutsche Bank looks at how SWFs have reacted to the changing political environment of recent years; Victoria Barbary of Monitor Group, assesses the asset allocation of SWFs and suggests that seeking increasingly sophisticated strategies to preserve and increase the value of their portfolios; and Rachel Ziemba of Roubini Global Economics examines the trend among certain SWFs to enter partnerships with co-investors.

The partnership continues to yield a strong academic dividend. The revised version of a joint academic paper by Monitor-FEEM researchers and currently under review for a leading finance journal) provides new evidence about SWF’s’ investment patterns and performance. We show that SWFs are sizable minority shareholders, but keep a very low profile in the corporate governance of target firms as they seldom seat in boards. Furthermore, SWFs acquisitions are good news at the time of announcements, but are associated with strong under-performance in the long run. This combined evidence seems consistent with the view of SWFs as a constrained foreign investors—large shareholders, but reluctant to play an active role in monitoring. More research and insight is needed to provide more definite conclusions. At any rate, an interesting question we beg is if and when SWFs will become active for the sake of their own economic interest. Monitor and FEEM will follow these exciting developments closely.

Are You SURE You Want to Waste Policy Chances? Waste Generation, Landfill Diversion and Environmental Policy Effectiveness in the EU15

15 May 2010

We empirically test delinking of waste dynamics with regard to economic growth and the effectiveness of environmental and specific waste-related policies, by exploiting a newly constructed, integrated waste-economic-policy dataset based on official data for the EU15 for 1995-2007. We find that absolute delinking for waste generation is far from being achieved in the EU despite fairly stringent and longstanding policy commitment that goes back to the mid 1990s, but which however is biased towards waste management and waste disposal rather than waste prevention. Policy as well as country structural factors seem to impact instead on landfill diversion. Nevertheless, country heterogeneity matters: SURE based analyses show that EU average figures often hide high variance. Their results provide food for thought for a future most comprehensive EU waste policy strategy, which is now aimed mainly at landfill diversion, within a framework strongly oriented to allowing countries to decide about the implementation of EU directives.

China in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy

14 May 2010

China, from its own perspective cannot afford to, and from an international perspective, is not allowed to continue on the conventional path of encouraging economic growth at the expense of the environment. The country needs to transform its economy to effectively address concern about a range of environmental problems from burning fossil fuels and steeply rising oil import and international pressure to exhibit greater ambition in fighting global climate change. This paper first discusses China’s own efforts towards energy saving and pollutants cutting, the widespread use of renewable energy and participation in clean development mechanism, and puts carbon reductions of China’s unilateral actions into perspective. Given that transition to a low carbon economy cannot take place overnight, the paper then discusses China’s policies on promoting the use of low-carbon energy technologies and nuclear power and efforts to secure stable oil and gas supplies during this transition period. Based on these discussions, the paper provides some recommendations on issues related to energy conservation and pollution control, wind power, nuclear power, clean coal technologies, and overseas oil and gas supplies, and articulates a roadmap for China regarding its climate commitments to 2050.

China in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy

14 May 2010

Trade and Geography in the Economic Origins of Islam: Theory and Evidence

13 May 2010

This research examines the economic origins of Islam and uncovers two empirical regularities. First, Muslim countries, virtual countries and ethnic groups, exhibit highly unequal regional agricultural endowments. Second, Muslim adherence is systematically larger along the pre-Islamic trade routes in the Old World. The theory argues that this particular type of geography (i) determined the economic aspects of the religious doctrine upon which Islam was formed, and (ii) shaped its subsequent economic performance. It suggests that the unequal distribution of land endowments conferred differential gains from trade across regions, fostering predatory behavior from the poorly endowed ones. In such an environment it was mutually beneficial to institute a system of income redistribution. However, a higher propensity to save by the rich would exacerbate wealth inequality rendering redistribution unsustainable, leading to the demise of the Islamic unity. Consequently, income inequality had to remain within limits for Islam to persist. This was instituted via restrictions on physical capital accumulation. Such rules rendered the investments on public goods, through religious endowments, increasingly attractive. As a result, capital accumulation remained low and wealth inequality bounded. Geography and trade shaped the set of economically relevant religious principles of Islam affecting its economic trajectory in the preindustrial world.

The Oil-Based Economies International Research Project. The Case of Iran

12 May 2010

In order to activate the cycle of wealth production, promote social justice and eliminate poverty and inequality, developing countries are currently faced with a multiplicity of structural problems. According to some economic theories, this is mainly due to inefficient or lack of access to financial resources, which has proved a major obstacle in activating the cycle of wealth production in such countries. On this assumption, countries with huge oil reserves including Iran, should not encounter obstacles in terms of creating and accelerating the national cycle of wealth production. However, the fact is almost all major oil-producing countries and the main exporters of petroleum products in the world are dealing with serious structural issues in establishing a natural cycle of wealth production and a cycle of wealth and income distribution. In order to examine the dependence of Iran’s economic systems (as one of the major exporters of petroleum products) on oil revenues, the paper shall first present an overview of the energy sector in these countries by expounding on their conditions and features and redefine the issue. Thus, in addition to an overview of Iran’s unique geographical and demographic features and a brief account of its history of oil discovery and its effects on the country’s continuum of social and historical events, the paper is going to elaborate on its oil and gas reserves and resources. In the end, considering the huge effect of petroleum export on Iran’s annual budget and its economy and the country’s necessities and obligations, the paper explains some strategies for reducing the economy’s dependence on oil and gas resources in the future and the main obstacles to implementation of these strategies.

The Consequences of Corruption: Evidences from China

12 May 2010

With complementary Chinese data sets and alternative corruption measures, we explore the consequences of corruption. Adopting a novel approach we provide evidence that corruption can have both, positive and negative effects, on economic development. The overall impact of corruption might be the balance of the two simultaneous effects within a specific institutional environment (“grease the wheels” and “sand the wheels”). Corruption is observed to considerably increase income inequality in China. We also find that corruption strongly reduces tax revenue. Looking at things from an expenditure point of view we observe that corruption significantly decreases government spending on education, R&D and public health in China. We also observe that regional corruption significantly reduces inbound foreign direct investment in Chinese regions, which indicates that the pollution haven hypothesis may not hold in China. This finding sheds a new light on the “China puzzle” that China is the largest developing host of FDI while it is appears to be very corrupt. Finally we observe that corruption substantially aggravates pollution probably through loosening environment regulation, and that it modifies the effects of trade openness and FDI on the stringency of environmental policy in a manner opposite to that observed in literature to date.

The Causes of Corruption: Evidence from China

11 May 2010

In this study we explore in detail the causes of corruption in China using two different sets of data at the regional level (provinces and cities). We observe that regions with more anti-corruption efforts, histories of British rule, higher openness, more access to media and relatively higher wages of government employees are markedly less corrupt; while social heterogeneity, regulation, abundance of resource and state-owned enterprises substantially breed regional corruption. Moreover, fiscal decentralization is discovered to depress corruption significantly, while administrative decentralization fosters local corruption. We also find that there is currently a positive relationship between corruption and economic development in China that is mainly driven by the transition to a market economy.

Agricultural Insurances Based on Meteorological Indices: Realizations, Methods and Research Agenda

10 May 2010

In many low-income countries, agriculture is mostly rainfed and yields highly depend on climatic factors. Furthermore, farmers have little access to traditional crop insurance, which suffers from high information asymmetry and transaction costs. Insurances based on meteorological indices could fill this gap since they do not face such drawbacks. However their implementation has been slow so far. In this article, we first describe the most advanced projects that have taken place in developing countries using these types of crop insurances. We then describe the methodology that has been used to design such projects, in order to choose the meteorological index, the indemnity schedule and the insurance premium. We finally draw an agenda for research in economics on this topic. In particular, more research is needed on implementation issues, on the assessment of benefits, on the way to deal with climate change, on the spatial variability of weather and on the interactions with other hedging methods.

Environmental Policy, Education and Growth with Finite Lifetime: the Role of Abatement Technology

09 May 2010

This note shows that the assumptions about the abatement technology modify the impact of the environmental taxation (both the size and the “direction”) on the long-run growth driven by human capital accumulation à la Lucas (1988), when the source of pollution is private consumption and lifetime is finite. When the human capital’s share in the abatement services production is higher (respectively lower) than in the final output production, a higher environmental tax reduces (resp. increases) the allocation of human capital in production sectors (abatement service and final output) and boostes (resp. decreases) the BGP rate of growth. When abatement services are produced with the final output, the environmental taxation does not influence growth.

Regulatory Independence and Political Interference: Evidence from EU Mixed-Ownership Utilities’ Investment and Debt

08 May 2010

This paper examines the investment and financial decisions of a sample of 92 EU regulated utilities, taking into account key institutional features of EU public utilities, such as: a) regulation by agencies with various degrees of independence; b) partial ownership of the state in the regulated firm; and c) the government’s political orientation, which may ultimately influence the regulatory climate to be either more pro-firm or more pro-consumers. Our results show that regulatory independence matters for both investment and financial decisions. Investment increases under an Independent Regulatory Agency (IRA), while ownership has no effect. Leverage also increases when the IRA is in place, especially so if the regulated firm is privately controlled. Finally political orientation does matter, as firm investment increases under more conservative (pro-firm) governments, but this effect appears to revert when the IRA is in place.

Optimal Investment and Financial Strategies under Tax Rate Uncertainty

07 May 2010

In this paper we apply a real-option model to study the effects of tax rate uncertainty on a firm's decisions. In doing so, we depart from the relevant literature, which focuses on fully equity-financed investment projects. By letting a representative firm borrow optimally, we show that debt finance not only encourages investment activities but can also substantially mitigate the effect of tax rate uncertainty on investment timing.

The Economic and Environmental Effects of an EU Ban on Illegal Logging Imports. Insights from a CGE Assessment

06 May 2010

Illegal logging is widely recognized as a major economic problem and one of the causes of environmental degradation. Increasing awareness of its negative effects has fostered a wide range of proposals to combat it by major international conservation groups and political organizations. Following the 2008 US legislation which prohibits the import of illegally harvested wood and wood products, the European Union (EU) is now discussing a legislation proposal which would ban illegal timber from the EU market. In this study we use the ICES computable general equilibrium model to estimate the reallocation of global demand and timber imports following the pending EU legislation. With this exercise our final objective is to assess the economic impacts and measure the potential emission reduction resulting from the introduction of this type of policy. Results show that while the EU ban does not seem particularly effective in reducing illegal logging activities, its main effect will be the removal of illegal logs from the international markets. In addition, the unilateral EU ban on illegal logs increases secondary wood production in illegal logging countries as their exports become relatively more competitive. Through this mechanism, part of the banned, illegal timber will re-enter the international trade flows, but it will be “hidden” as processed wood. This effect is, however, limited. Finally, given the limited effect on overall economic activity, effects on GHG emissions are also limited. Direct carbon emissions from logging activities can decrease from 2.5 to 0.6 million tons per year.

Context and the VSL: Evidence from a Stated Preference Study in Italy and the Czech Republic

05 May 2010

We report on the results of a survey based on conjoint choice experiments that was specifically designed to investigate the effect of context on the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL), an important input into the calculation of the mortality benefits of environmental policies that reduce premature mortality. We define “context” broadly to include i) the cause of death (respiratory illness, cancer, road traffic accident), ii) the beneficiary of the risk reduction (adult v. child), and iii) the mode of provision of the risk reduction (public program v. private good). The survey was conducted following similar protocols in Italy and the Czech Republic. When do not distinguish for the cause of death, child and adult VSL are not significantly different from one another in Italy, and the difference is weak in the Czech sample. When we distinguish for the cause of death, we find that child and adult VSLs are different at the 1% level for respiratory illnesses and road-traffic accidents, but do not differ for cancer risks. We find evidence of a “cancer premium” and a “public program premium.” In both countries, the marginal utility of income is about 20% lower among wealthier people, which makes the VSL about 20% higher among respondents with incomes above the sample average. The discount rate implicit in people‘s choices is effectively zero. We conclude that there is heterogeneity in the VSL, and that such heterogeneity is primarily driven by risk characteristics and mode of delivery of the risk reduction, rather than by individual characteristics of the respondent (e.g., income and education). For the most part, our results do not disagree with environmental policy analyses that use the same VSL for children and adults, and that apply a cancer premium.

Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union since the fall of the Berlin Wall: Review of the Changes in the Environment and Natural Resources

04 May 2010

This paper reviews the environmental record of the transition countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia since the fall of the Berlin Wall, with a focus on areas of key concern to public policy at the present time. With the impacts of environment on public health being given the highest priority, we examined several associated health indicators at the national level, as well as looking at important environmental issues at the local level. In this respect, we focus on environmental problems related to air and water quality, land contamination, and solid waste management. Despite showing a highly differentiated performance across the region, the results suggest that inadequate environmental management seen in several of the transition countries in the past 20 years has put people’s health and livelihood under huge threats. Moreover, this paper looks at the development of policy responses and resources, i.e. environmental expenditures, in these countries, during the process of transiting from centrally planned economies to market-based one. Similarly, we identify various degrees of progress across the region. The findings reinforce the need for better coherence between national environmental expenditure and international environmental assistance, as well as the actual enforcement of national regulations and international agreements in those non-EU transition countries.

The Linkages between Energy Efficiency and Security of Energy Supply in Europe

03 May 2010

It can be argued that one way to reduce the dependence from external energy sources, is simply to reduce the demand for energy. Energy savings may thus be considered a policy priority when concerns for energy security are particularly strong. Drawing on an original econometric approach, we check whether policies and measures that affect indicators of energy efficiency performance have an analogous effect on security of supply indicators, both at the whole economy level and within the main sectors of energy use in the EU 15 countries and Norway. Our analyses show that the indicators studied are affected by a number of policies and measures; however very few of them seem able to tackle effectively and simultaneously, energy efficiency, carbon efficiency and energy security. The main lesson to be drawn from this analysis is therefore that there is a number of energy efficiency policies in the EU that do work, but there is no silver bullet able to successfully address different policy objectives. Taking a more general perspective, what seems to work is the policy mix rather than this or that policy in insulation.

International Cooperation on Climate Change Adaptation from an Economic Perspective

02 May 2010

This paper investigates the economic incentives of countries to cooperate on international adaptation financing. Adaptation is generally implicitly incorporated in the climate change damage functions as used in Integrated Assessment Models. We replace the implicit decision on adaptation with explicit adaptation in a multi-regional setting by using an adjusted RICE model. We show that making adaptation explicit will not affect the optimal mitigation path when adaptation is set at its optimal level. Sub-optimal adaptation will, however, change the optimal mitigation path. Furthermore this paper studies for different forms of cooperation what effects international adaptation transfers will have on (i) domestic adaptation and (ii) the optimal mitigation path. Adaptation transfers will fully crowd out domestic adaptation in a first best setting. Transfers will decrease overall mitigation in our numerical simulations. An analytical framework is used to analyse the most important mechanisms and a numerical model is used to assess the magnitude of effects.

Alternative Paths toward a Low Carbon World

01 May 2010

This paper analyzes the economic and investment implications of a series of climate mitigation scenarios, characterized by different levels of ambition in terms of long term stabilization goals and the transition to attain them. In particular, the implications of fairly ambitious scenarios are investigated for the first time by means of the model WITCH. Although milder climate objectives can be achieved at moderate costs, our results show that stringent stabilization paths, compatible with the target of the European Union and the G8, might have important economic repercussions. The timing of mitigation action influences the cost of meeting a target as well the stringency of the targets we can aspire to. To contain costs it is crucial to rely on a wide mitigation portfolio. Strong reductions in energy consumption through enhanced energy efficiency and life style changes are needed to achieve stringent climate policies. The analysis carried out in the present paper contains several idealistic assumptions that could be violated in the real world where some technologies may not be fully available, technology transfers and diffusion are imperfect, some world regions may not accept to reduce their GHG emissions, trading might be limited to some sectors or to a fraction of the total abatement effort, etc. This would increase the challenge of climate protection and the costs of reducing GHG emissions.

Alternative Paths toward a Low Carbon World

01 May 2010

The Right Amount of Trust

30 Apr 2010

We investigate the relationship between individual trust and individual economic performance. We find that individual income is hump-shaped in a measure of intensity of trust beliefs. Heterogeneity of trust beliefs in the population, coupled with the tendency of individuals to extrapolate beliefs about others from their own levels of trustworthiness, could generate this non-monotonic relationship: highly trustworthy individuals tend to form overly optimistic beliefs, to assume too much social risk and to be cheated more often, ultimately performing less well than those with a belief close to the mean trustworthiness of the population. On the other hand, less trustworthy individuals form overly pessimistic beliefs and avoid being cheated, but give up profitable opportunities, therefore underperforming. The cost of either too much or too little trust is comparable to the income lost by foregoing college. Our findings in large-scale survey data are supported and extended with experimental findings. We show that in the trust game, own trustworthiness and beliefs about others’ trustworthiness are strongly correlated and persistent and that patterns in earnings lost due to incorrect beliefs are comparable to those in the survey data.

Using the Law to Change the Custom

29 Apr 2010

We build a simple model of legal dualism in which a pro-poor legal reform, under certain conditions, causes the conflicting custom to go some way toward producing the change intended by the legislator. It then acts as an "outside anchor" that exerts a "magnet effect" on the custom. We illustrate this insight using examples on inheritance, marriage, and divorce issues in Sub-Saharan Africa and India. We also characterize the conditions under which a moderate pro-poor reform is more effective than a radical reform.

Juvenile Delinquency and Conformism

28 Apr 2010

This paper studies whether conformism behavior affects individual outcomes in crime. We present a social network model of peer effects with ex-ante heterogeneous agents and show how conformism and deterrence affect criminal activities. We then bring the model to the data by using a very detailed dataset of adolescent friendship networks. A novel social network-based empirical strategy allows us to identify peer effects for different types of crimes. We find that conformity plays an important role for all crimes, especially for petty crimes. This suggests that, for juvenile crime, an effective policy should not only be measured by the possible crime reduction it implies but also by the group interactions it engenders.

Juvenile Delinquency and Conformism

28 Apr 2010

Social Capital and Political Accountability

27 Apr 2010

In this paper, we empirically investigate a channel through which social capital may improve economic wellbeing and the functioning of institutions: political accountability. The main idea is that voters who share norms of generalized morality demand higher standards of behavior on their elected representavtives, are more willing to bear the cost of acquiring information, and are more likely to base their vote on criteria of social welfare rather than (narrow) personal interest. We take this conjecture to the data using information on the Italian members of Parliament in the postwar period (1948–2001). The empirical evidence shows that the electoral punishment of political misbehavior is considerably larger in electoral districts with high social capital, where social capital is measured by blood donation, and political misbehavior refers to receiving a request of criminal prosecution or shirking in parliamentary activity. Accordingly, episodes of political misbehavior are less frequent in electoral districts with high social capital.

Women’s Rights and Development

25 Apr 2010

Why has the expansion of women’s economic and political rights coincided with economic development? This paper investigates this question, focusing on a key economic right for women: property rights. The basic hypothesis is that the process of development (i.e., capital accumulation and declining fertility) exacerbated the tension in men’s conflicting interests as husbands versus fathers, ultimately resolving them in favor of the latter. As husbands, men stood to gain from their privileged position in a patriarchal world whereas, as fathers, they were hurt by a system that afforded few rights to their daughters. The model predicts that declining fertility would hasten reform of women’s property rights whereas legal systems that were initially more favorable to women would delay them. The theoretical relationship between capital and the relative attractiveness of reform is non-monotonic but growth inevitably leads to reform. I explore the empirical validity of the theoretical predictions by using cross-state variation in the US in the timing of married women obtaining property and earning rights between 1850 and 1920.

Family Values and the Regulation of Labor

24 Apr 2010

Flexible labor markets requires geographically mobile workers to be efficient. Otherwise, firms can take advantage of the immobility of workers and extract monopsony rents. In cultures with strong family ties, moving away from home is costly. Thus, individuals with strong family ties rationally choose regulated labor markets to avoid moving and limiting the monopsony power of firms, even though regulation generates lower employment and income. Empirically, we do find that individuals who inherit stronger family ties are less mobile, have lower wages, are less often employed and support more stringent labor market regulations. There are also positive cross-country correlations between the strength of family ties and labor market rigidities. Finally, we find positive correlations between labor market rigidities at the beginning of the twenty first century and family values prevailing before World War II, which suggests that labor market regulations have deep cultural roots.

Conscription and Crime: Evidence from the Argentine Draft Lottery

23 Apr 2010

We estimate the causal effect of mandatory participation in the military service on the involvement in criminal activities. We exploit the random assignment of young men to military service in Argentina through a draft lottery to identify this causal effect. Using a unique set of administrative data that includes draft eligibility, participation in the military service, and criminal records, we find that participation in the military service increases the likelihood of developing a criminal record in adulthood. The effects are not only significant for the cohorts that performed military service during war times, but also for those that provided service at peace times. We also find that military service has detrimental effects on future performance in the labor market.

”Thou shalt not covet ...”: Prohibitions, Temptation and Moral Values

22 Apr 2010

We propose a theory studying temptation in presence of both externally and internally sanctioned prohibitions. Moral values that (internally) sanction prohibited actions and their desire may increase utility by reducing self-control costs, thereby serving as partial commitment devices. We apply the model to crime and study the conditions under which agents would optimally adhere to moral values of honesty. Incentives to be moral are non- monotonic in the crime premium. Larger external punishments increase temptation and demand for morality, so that external and internal sanctions are complements. The model helps rationalizing stylized facts that proved difficult to explain with available theories.

Religious Organizations

21 Apr 2010

We propose a model of religious organizations which relies on the ability of such organi-zations and personal utility shocks. We show how religious organizations arise endogenously and characterize their features. Specifically, we find that members of the religious organization share similar beliefs and are more likely to cooperate with one another in social interactions. We identify a "spiritual" as well as a "material" payoff for members of the religious organization. Our results explain and shed light on empirical phenomena such as the effects of secularization and economic development on religious beliefs and participation, the relation between the size of the religion and the intensity of its members’ beliefs, religious segregation and religious conflicts.

Lisbon vs Kyoto vs Moscow: towards a smart EU energy policy

20 Apr 2010

The Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP), the Loyola de Palacio Programme of the European University Institute, the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and Wilton Park (WP) organised a four-tier project to discuss the potential for a smart EU Energy Policy. The project consisted of three workshops where academics discussed the various interactions between the three core objectives of EU energy policy with stakeholders from governments, regulators, and industry. Following the three workshops a conference took place to examine the workshop reports and to formulate overall project conclusions and recommendations. The objective of the project was to come out with a set of “smart” conclusions and recommendations for the 2010 EU energy policy review. The deliberations at the four project meetings greatly informed the views expressed in this policy brief, but those views belong to the authors only and do not necessarily represent those of individual participants at the meetings or of the four supporting organizations.

Assessing the climate pledges of China and India: how much do they bite?

19 Apr 2010

One of the most important outcomes of Copenhagen has been the pledge of China and India to reduce the carbon intensity of their economies. The former is especially relevant since China already generates 25% more emissions than the second world country emitter, the US. Recent statements of Chinese officials indicate that the commitment might already be included into the twelfth five year plan (2011-2015), to be approved early next year. If that was the case, China would have a domestic climate policy before more accountable nations such as the US do. However, given the elusive intensity metric, there is considerable speculation about what kind of climate leadership is entailed by the Copenhagen pledges. This policy brief tackles this issue by providing an assessment of the Asian giants’ efforts required to meet their climate goals, and the implications beyond 2020. Historical evidence and results of integrated assessment models point to a mixed picture in which the accord can turn from business as usual to a serious climate policy.

Advocatus, et non latro? Testing the Supplier-Induced-Demand Hypothesis for Italian Courts of Justice

18 Apr 2010

We explore the relationship between litigation rates and the number of lawyers, in a typical supplier-induced demand (SID) frame. Drawing on an original panel dataset for the 169 Italian courts of justice between 2000 and 2007, we first document that the number of lawyers is positively correlated with different measures of litigation rate. Then, using an instrumental variables strategy we find that a 10 percent increase of lawyers over population is associated with an increase between 1.6 to 6 percent in civil litigation rates. Thus, our empirical analysis supports the SID hypothesis for the Italian lawyers: following an increase in their relative number, lawyers may exploit their informational advantage to induce clients to access to courts even when litigation is unnecessary or ineffective.

A History of Violence: Testing the ‘Culture of Honor’ in the US South

17 Apr 2010

Using historical data on early settlers to the United States, this paper tests and confirms the “Culture of Honor” hypothesis by socio-psychologists Dov Cohen and Richard Nisbett (1994, 1996). This hypothesis argues that the high prevalence of homicides in the US South stems from the fact that it was a frontier region settled by people whose economy was based on herding: the Scotch-Irish. Herding societies develop cultures of honors for reasons having to do with their precariousness: violence is a necessary condition to preserve a reputation for toughness and deter animal theft. Using historical census data on waves of settlers from Europe and relating contemporaneous violence to early Scotch-Irish settlers, this paper provides a test of the link between Scotch-Irish settlers and the culture of honor. The results confirm that high numbers of Scotch-Irish immigrants to the US South by 1790 are associated with higher homicide rates today, including homicides by white offenders. Similar results do not hold for different origins of migrants or other violent crime or offenses. The effect is stronger in counties with high headcounts of pigs and sheep in the 19th century, confirming the herding origin of the culture of honor. An important contribution of this paper is to suggests an instrument for violence, based on past economic occupations and ecological suitability for herding vs. farming.

Equilibri 2010.01 - Oltre il PIL

16 Apr 2010

Con il primo numero di quest’anno «Equilibri» porta a conclusione i cambiamenti avviati nel 2009 nei contenuti e nella grafica. La rivista che proponiamo oggi al lettore è completamente rinnovata: più ariosa, meglio scandita nelle sezioni e, quanto a collaboratori, ancora più internazionale. Non meno importante della sua trasformazione è il tema del dossier d’apertura: Oltre il PIL. Il nostro dossier riassume il dibattito intorno a questa «misura», riattualizzato dalla decisione del governo francese di istituire lo scorso anno, in piena crisi economica, una «Commission sur la mesure des performances économiques e du progrès social», affidandone la cura a Joseph E. Stiglitz, Amartya Sen e Jean-Paul Fitoussi. Ma la vera novità del dossier sta nella presentazione dell’Indicatore di Sostenibilità messo a punto dalla nostra Fondazione e reso pubblico per la prima volta in occasione del recente vertice di Copenaghen.

The 1.2010 issue of «Equilibri» completes the contents and graphics renovation started in 2009: a sleek design, a clear-cut differentiation among the sections and a more international team of contributors. But even more important than the redesign is the theme of the opening dossier: GDP. The debate around this «measure» is brought up-to-date by the decision made by the French government in 2009, at the peak of the crisis, to entrust Joseph E. Stiglitz, Amartya Sen and Jean-Paul Fitoussi with the formation of a «Commission sur la mesure des performances économiques e du progrès social». The most important news, however, is the presentation of FEEM’s Sustainability Index, which was announced for the first time during the recent climate change conference in Copenhagen.

Download the Table of Contents, Short Abstracts and Editorial

New perspectives in the economics of culture and social interactions

15 Apr 2010

Since Gary Becker’s seminal contributions on the economics of the family and crime, which made him win the Nobel Prize in economics in 1992, economists have become increasingly interested in explaining non-market activities and social behaviours of individuals. There are two main reasons why economists, using the theoretical and empirical tools developed in more standard fields (e.g. consumer theory, monetary policy, international trade, etc.), can add to the policy debate on culture and crime. First, the particular attention economists put in distinguishing correlations from causation links helps improving the understanding of events occurring in these fields. Second, the rigorous quantitative nature of economic analysis can play an important role in properly measuring effects of alternative policies and introducing new variables in the analysis. Recent developments in economic analysis applied to issues related to, among others, criminal behaviour, transmission of cultural traits and emergence of religious institutions have been discussed by prominent European and US scholars during the Conference “Economics of Culture, Institution and Crime” held at FEEM on 20-22/01/2010. This Policy Brief reviews the main findings presented at the Conference and elaborates policy recommendations for Europe and beyond.

Governance for the Environment: A Comparative Analysis of Environmental Policy Integration

12 Apr 2010

The integration of environmental concerns into other policy areas is widely recognized as a key element to achieve sustainable development. It also represents a challenge for the environmental community, requiring not only a new approach to policy-making but also changes to existing policies and their implementation. This essential book presents a diverse set of perspectives and experiences on how to support sustainable development through the integration of environmental issues into various policy sectors.

The authors examine existing research on environmental policy integration (EPI) at three levels of policy-making: the national level, in relation to both strategic and sectoral decision-making; the regional level, where both supra-national and sub-national regional entities are discussed; and the local level, where strategies available to municipalities or individuals for furthering environmental policy integration are presented. New and innovative approaches to the study of EPI at these levels of governance are also proposed. They also demonstrate how the effectiveness of EPI depends on factors such as national, legal and administrative structures and culture, the stage of the policy cycle to which EPI measures are applied, and the level of integration among various modes of governance and instruments.

Academics, graduate and postgraduate students in social, political and environmental sciences will find much of interest in this unique book. NGOs and representatives of public and private institutions working on environmental policy issues will also find this book an invaluable resource.

Contributors: Michela Catenacci, Frank J. Convery, Bruno Dente, Kenneth Hanf, Andrew Jordan, Keti Medarova-Bergström, Josu Mezo,Carolina Pacchi, Adam Paulsen, Duncan Russel, Philipp Schepelmann, Alessandra Sgobbi, Tamara Steger, Georgios Terizakis, Davide Zanoni

A Hybrid Approach to the Valuation of Climate Change Effects on Ecosystem Services: Evidence from the European Forests

11 Apr 2010

In this paper we present a systematic attempt to assess economic value of climate change impact on forest ecosystems and human welfare. In the present study, climate change impacts are downscaled to the different European countries, which in turn constitute the elements of our analysis. First, we anchor the valuation exercise in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) Approach and therefore the link between the different forest ecosystem goods and services, including provisioning, regulating and cultural services, human well-being and climate change. Second, climate change is operationalized by exploring the different storylines developed by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and applied, downscaled, for each of the European countries under consideration. Third, and bearing in mind the different nature of the benefits provided by the different types of forest ecosystems under examination, we shall explore different economic valuation methodologies so as to shed light on the magnitude of the involved welfare changes. According to the estimation results the four different IPCC scenarios, i.e. A1F1, A2, B1 and B2, are associated to different welfare impacts. First, these reveal to depend on both the nature of the forest ecosystem service. For example, cultural values reveal to be more sensitive to the four IPCC scenarios than the other ones, with the wood forest products being more resilient to climate change. Second, the distributional impacts of climate change on the provision of these goods and services do also depend on the geo-climatic regions under consideration. For the Scandinavian group of countries, B1 is ranked with the highest level of provision of carbon sequestration services, amounting to 46.3 billion dollars. In addition, we can see that cultural services provided by forest ecosystems have their highest levels in the Mediterranean countries, ranging from 8.4 to 9.0 million dollars, respectively in the B2 and B1 scenarios. Finally, we can see that the total value of wood forest products ranges between 41.2 and 47.5 million dollars for Central Europe to 5.4 and 7.2 million dollars in Northern Europe, respectively A1 and A2 scenarios. For this service, Mediterranean Europe provides a relatively weak role in the provision with values ranging from 6.4 million dollars in A1 scenario to 8.7 million dollars in the B2. In short, and to conclude, the valuation results (1) may contribute to a better understanding of the potential welfare loss in the context of climate change and the economic trade-offs between potential mitigation or adaptation strategies; and (2) confirm that climate change will be responsible for a re-distribution of welfare among the European countries, signalling the potential for a(n) agreement(s) among these same countries focus on the re-allocation of potential trade-offs among the countries.

(Anti-) Coordination in Networks

10 Apr 2010

We study (anti-) coordination problems in networks in a laboratory experiment. Partici- pants interact with their neighbours in a fixed network to play a bilateral (anti-) coordination game. Our main treatment variable is the extent to which players are heterogeneous in the number of connections (neighbors) they have. Other network characteristics are held constant across treatments. We find the following results. Heterogeneity in the number of connections dramatically improves the rate of successful coordination. In addition, even though there is a multiplicity of Nash equilibria theoretically, a very sharp selection is observed empirically: the most connected player can impose her preferred Nash equilibrium almost always and observed Nash equilibria are such that all links are coordinated. As a second treatment variation we let agents decide endogenously on the amount of information they would like to have and find that local (endogenous) information is equally efficient in ensuring successful coordination as full information. We provide an intuitive explanation of these facts which is supported by our data.

Resistance to Change

07 Apr 2010

Established firms often fail to maintain leadership following disruptive market shifts. We argue that such firms are more prone to internal resistance. A radical adjustment of assets affects the distribution of employee rents, creating winners and losers. Losers resist large changes when strong customer goodwill cushions the consequences. Partial adaptation may lead winners to depart to form new firms with no goodwill, but no internal resistance.

The Circulation of Ideas in Firms and Markets

06 Apr 2010

Novel early stage ideas face uncertainty on the expertise needed to elaborate them, which creates a need to circulate them widely to find a match. Yet as information is not excludable, shared ideas may be stolen, reducing incentives to innovate. Still, in idea-rich environments inventors may share them without contractual protection. Idea density is enhanced by firms ensuring rewards to inventors, while their legal boundaries limit idea leakage. As firms limit idea circulation, the innovative environment involves a symbiotic interaction: firms incubate ideas and allow employees to leave if they cannot find an internal fit; markets allow for wide circulation of ideas until matched and completed; under certain circumstances ideas may be even developed in both firms and markets.

Getting Cars Off the Road: The Cost-Effectiveness of an Episodic Pollution Control Program

05 Apr 2010

Ground level ozone remains a serious problem in the United States. Because ozone non-attainment is a summer problem, episodic rather than continuous controls of ozone precursors are possible. We evaluate the costs and effectiveness of an episodic scheme that requires people to buy permits in order to drive on high ozone days. We estimate the demand function for permits based on a survey of 1,300 households in the Washington, DC metropolitan area. Assuming that all vehicle owners comply with the scheme, the permit program would reduce VOCs by 50 tons and NOx by 42 tons per Code Red day at a permit price of $75. Allowing for non-compliance by 15% of respondents reduces the effectiveness of the scheme to 39 tons of VOCs and 33 tons of NOx per day. The cost per ozone season of achieving these reductions is approximately $9 million (2008 USD). This compares favorably with permanent methods of reducing VOCs that cost $645 per ton per year.

European Takeover Law: The Case for a Neutral Approach

30 Mar 2010

This paper argues that in revising the Takeover Bid Directive, EU policymakers should adopt a neutral approach toward takeovers, i.e. enact rules that neither hamper nor promote them. The rationale behind this approach is that takeovers can be both value-creating and value-decreasing and there is no way to tell ex ante whether they are of the former or the latter kind. Unfortunately, takeover rules cannot be crafted so as to hinder all the bad takeovers while at the same time promoting the good ones. Further, contestability of control is not cost-free, because it has a negative impact on managers’ and block-holders’ incentives to make firm-specific investments of human capital, which in turn affects firm value. It is thus argued that individual companies should be able to decide how contestable their control should be. After showing that the current EC legal framework for takeovers overall hinders takeover activity in the EU, the paper identifies three rationales for a takeover-neutral intervention of the EC in the area of takeover regulation (pre-emption of “takeover-hostile,” protectionist national regulations, opt-out rules protecting shareholders vis-à-vis managers’ and dominant shareholders’ opportunism in takeover contexts, and menu rules helping individual companies define their degree of control contestability) and provides examples of rules that may respond to such rationales.

Public Security vs. Private Self-Protection: Optimal Taxation and the Social Dynamics of Fear

29 Mar 2010

In this paper, we develop a simple model of social dynamics governing the evolution of strategic self-protection choices of boundedly rational potential victims facing the threat of prospective offenders in a large population with random matching. We prove that individual (and socially transmitted) fear of exposure to criminal threats may actually condition choices even in the face of objective evidence of declining crime rates, and thereby cause the eventual selection of Pareto inefficient equilibria with self-protection. We also show that a suitable strategy of provision of public security financed through discriminatory taxation of self-protective expenses may actually overcome this problem, and drive the social dynamics toward the efficient no protection equilibrium. In our model, we do not obtain, as in Cressman et al. (1998), a crowding-out result such that the net impact of public spending on the actual social dynamics is neutral and the economy keeps on cycling between phases of high and low criminal activity with varying levels of self-protection; quite to the contrary, it can be extremely effective in implementing the social optimum, in that it acts primarily on the intangible dimension, that is, on the social dynamics of fear. We claim that this kind of result calls for more interdisciplinary research on the socio-psycho-economic determinants of fear of crime, and for consequent advances in modelling approaches and techniques.

Reinforcing the EU Dialogue with Developing Countries on Climate Change Mitigation

28 Mar 2010

The FP6 TOCSIN project has evaluated climate change mitigation options in China and India and the conditions for strategic cooperation on research, development and demonstration (RD&D) and technology transfer with the European Union. In particular, the project investigated the strategic dimensions of RD&D cooperation and the challenge of creating incentives to encourage the participation of developing countries in post-2012 GHG emissions reduction strategies and technological cooperation. This paper summarizes the main policy-relevant results of the project, including the requests for: (I) almost immediate decisions on ambitious mitigation; (II) a strong increase in Annex I support regarding R&D spending and technology transfer; (III) a well-designed mix of instruments and targets in an effective climate deal that addresses manifold national interests and concerns.

What Should We Expect from Innovation? A Model-Based Assessment of the Environmental and Mitigation Cost Implications of Climate-Related R&D

25 Mar 2010

This paper addresses two basic issues related to technological innovation and climate stabilisation objectives: i) Can innovation policies be effective in stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations? ii) To what extent can innovation policies complement carbon pricing (taxes or permit trading) and improve the economic efficiency of a mitigation policy package? To answer these questions, we use an integrated assessment model with multiple externalities and an endogenous representation of technical progress in the energy sector. We evaluate a range of innovation policies, both as a stand-alone instrument and in combination with other mitigation policies. Even under fairly optimistic assumptions about the funding available for, and the returns to R&D, our analysis indicates that innovation policies alone are unlikely to stabilise global concentration and temperature. The efficiency gains of combining innovation and carbon pricing policies are found to reach about 10% for a stabilisation target of 535 ppm CO2eq. However, such gains are reduced when more plausible (sub-optimal) global innovation policy arrangements are considered.

What Should We Expect from Innovation? A Model-Based Assessment of the Environmental and Mitigation Cost Implications of Climate-Related R&D

25 Mar 2010

Scaling up Ecosystem Services Values: Methodology, Applicability and a Case Study

24 Mar 2010

The approach of using existing data on economic values of local ecosystem services for an assessment of these values at a larger geographical scale can be called “scaling up”. In a scaling-up exercise, economic values from a particular study site are transferred to another geographical setting, for instance to the regional, national or global scale. This paper proposes a methodology for scaling up ecosystem service values to a European level, assesses the availability of data for conducting this method, and illustrates the procedure with a case study on wetland values. The proposed methodology makes use of meta-analysis to produce a value function that is subsequently applied to individual European wetland sites. Site-specific, study-specific and context-specific variables are used to define a price vector that captures differences between sites and over time. The proposed method is shown to be practicable and to produce reasonably reliable aggregate value estimates.

Parallel Imports and Innovation in an Emerging Economy

21 Mar 2010

This paper studies the consequences of parallel import (PI) on process innovation of firms heterogeneous in their production technology. In an international setting where foreign markets differ with respect to their intellectual property rights regime, a move by a technologically inferior firm to exploit a new unregulated market can result in imitation and PI. The impact of PI on innovation is determined by the degree of heterogeneity between firms and trade costs. Increasing trade costs shifts from the market share losses brought by PI from the more to the less productive firm. This induces the former to invest more in R&D. At this point, sales in the foreign market become a determinant of the R&D decision by the technologically inferior firm. For low levels of firm heterogeneity, PI increases output by this firm targeted for the unregulated market, hence increases its innovation efforts. A tariff policy accompanied by opening borders to PI only increases welfare when the technological gap between the two firms is sufficiently large.

Rent Seekers in Rentier States: When Greed Brings Peace

20 Mar 2010

Are natural resources a source of conflict or stability? Empirical studies demonstrate that rents from natural resources, and in particular oil, are an important source of civil war. Allegedly, resource rents attract rent seekers, which destabilize society. However, there is a large literature on how so-called rentier states manage to pacify opposition groups by handing out special favors. The present paper attempts to bridge the gap between the rent-seeking view of resource rents as a source of conflict and the rentier state view which emphasizes the role of resource rents in promoting peace and stability, and show how one may lead to the other. The mechanism that we highlight relies on the notion that higher rents may activate more interest groups in a power struggle. We demonstrate that the associated increased cost of conflict may in fact promote social stability. The peaceful solution is upheld by a self reinforcing transfer program, in the form of patronage employment. The chance of conflict and rent dissipation in our model is highest for intermediate levels of resource rents, where the government cannot make credible commitments to the opposition groups.

What is Different about Government-Controlled Acquirers in Cross-Border Acquisitions?

17 Mar 2010

We examine the motives for and consequences of 5,317 failed and completed cross-border acquisitions constituting $619 billion of total activity that were led by government-controlled acquirers over the period from 1990 to 2008. We benchmark this activity at the aggregate country level and also at the deal level with cross-border acquisitions involving corporate acquirers over the same period. We find that government-led deal activity is relatively more intense for geographically-closer countries, but also relatively less sensitive to differences in the level of economic development of the acquirer’s and target’s home countries, in the quality of their legal institutions and accounting standards, and to how stringent are restrictions on FDI flows in their countries. Government-led acquirers are more likely to pursue larger targets with greater growth opportunities and more financial constraints. But, the share-price reactions to the announcements of such acquisitions are not different. Among those deals involving government-controlled acquirers, we do find important differences involving sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). SWF-led acquisitions are less likely to fail, they are more likely to pursue acquirers that are larger in total assets and with fewer financial constraints, and the market reactions to SWF-led acquisitions, while positive, are statistically and economically much smaller. We discuss policy implications in terms of recent regulatory changes in the U.S. and other countries that seek to restrict foreign acquisitions by government-controlled entities.

Sectoral Targets for Developing Countries: Combining "Common but Differentiated Responsibilities" with "Meaningful participation"

16 Mar 2010

Although a global cap-and-trade system is seen by many researchers as the most cost-efficient solution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, developing countries governments refuse to enter into such a system in the short term. Hence, many scholars and stakeholders, including the European Commission, have proposed various types of commitments for developing countries that appear less stringent, such as sectoral approaches. In this paper, we assess such a sectoral approach for developing countries. More precisely, we simulate two policy scenarios in which developed countries continue with Kyoto-type absolute commitments, whereas developing countries adopt an emission trading system limited to electricity generation and linked to developed countries' cap-and-trade system. In a first scenario, CO2 allowances are auctioned by the government, which distributes the auctions receipts lump-sum to households. In a second scenario, the auction receipts are used to reduce taxes on, or to give subsidies to, electricity generation. Our quantitative analysis, led with a hybrid general equilibrium model, shows that such options provide almost as much emission reductions as a global cap-and-trade system. Moreover, in the second sectoral scenario, GDP losses in developing countries are much lower than with a global cap-and-trade system and so is the impact on the electricity price.

How to Design a Border Adjustment for the European Union Emissions Trading System?

15 Mar 2010

Border adjustments are currently discussed to limit the possible adverse impact of climate policies on competitiveness and carbon leakage. We discuss the main choices that will have to be made if the European Union implements such a system alongside with the EU ETS. Although more analysis is required on some issues, on others some design options seem clearly preferable to others. First, the import adjustment should be a requirement to surrender allowances rather than a tax. Second, the general rule to determine the amount of allowances per ton imported should be the product-specific benchmarks that the European Commission is currently elaborating for a different purpose (i.e. to determine the amount of free allowances). Third, this obligation should apply when the exported product is registered at the EU border, and not after the end of the year as is the case for domestic emitters. Fourth, the export adjustment should take the form of a rebate on the amount of allowances a domestic emitter has to surrender. Five, this rebate should equal the above-mentioned product-specific benchmarks, not the emissions of the particular exporting plant or firm. Finally, the adjustment does not have to apply to consumer products but mostly to basic products.

How to Design a Border Adjustment for the European Union Emissions Trading System?

15 Mar 2010

Leadership Cycles

07 Mar 2010

We study a quality-ladder model of endogenous growth that produces stochastic leadership cycles. Over a cycle, industry leaders can innovate several successive times in the same industry, gradually increasing the magnitude of their technological lead before being replaced by a new entrant. Initially, new leaders are eager to enlarge their lead and do much of the research, but if they innovate repeatedly, their propensity to invest in R&D decreases. Eventually they stop doing research altogether, and as they are overtaken a new cycle starts. The model generates a skewed firm size distribution and a deviation from Gibrat’s law that accord with the empirical evidence. We also consider various policy measures, showing that in some cases policy should favour R&D by incumbents, not outsiders, and that stronger patent protection may reduce innovation and growth.

The U.S. Proposed Carbon Tariffs, WTO Scrutiny and China’s Responses

06 Mar 2010

With countries from around the world set to meet in Copenhagen to try to hammer out a post-2012 climate change agreement, no one would disagree that a U.S. commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions is essential to such a global pact. However, despite U.S. president Obama’s recent announcement to push for a commitment to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 17% by 2020, in reality it is questionable whether U.S. Congress will agree to specific emissions cuts, although they are not ambitious at all from the perspectives of both the EU and developing countries, without the imposition of carbon tariffs on Chinese products to the U.S. market, even given China’s own recent announcement to voluntarily seek to reduce its carbon intensity by 40-45% over the same period. This dilemma is partly attributed to flaws in current international climate negotiations, which have been focused on commitments on the two targeted dates of 2020 and 2050. However, if the international climate change negotiations continue on their current course without extending the commitment period to 2030, which would really open the possibility for the U.S. and China to make the commitments that each wants from the other, the inclusion of border carbon adjustment measures seems essential to secure passage of any U.S. legislation capping its own greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, the joint WTO-UNEP report indicates that border carbon adjustment measures might be allowed under the existing WTO rules, depending on their specific design features and the specific conditions for implementing them. Against this background, this paper argues that, on the U.S. side, there is a need to minimize the potential conflicts with WTO provisions in designing such border carbon adjustment measures. The U.S. also needs to explore, with its trading partners, cooperative sectoral approaches to advancing low-carbon technologies and/or concerted mitigation efforts in a given sector at the international level. Moreover, to increase the prospects for a successful WTO defence of the Waxman-Markey type of border adjustment provision, there should be: 1) a period of good faith efforts to reach agreements among the countries concerned before imposing such trade measures; 2) consideration of alternatives to trade provisions that could reasonably be expected to fulfill the same function but are not inconsistent or less inconsistent with the relevant WTO provisions; and 3) trade provisions that should allow importers to submit equivalent emission reduction units that are recognized by international treaties to cover the carbon contents of imported products. Meanwhile, being targeted by such border carbon adjustment measures, China needs to, at the right time, indicate a serious commitment to address climate change issues to challenge the legitimacy of the U.S. imposing carbon tariffs by signaling well ahead that it will take on binding absolute emission caps around the year 2030, and needs the three transitional periods of increasing climate obligations before taking on absolute emissions caps. This paper argues that there is a clear need within a climate regime to define comparable efforts towards climate mitigation and adaptation to discipline the use of unilateral trade measures at the international level. As exemplified by export tariffs that China applied on its own during 2006-08, the paper shows that defining the comparability of climate efforts can be to China’s advantage. Furthermore, given the fact that, in volume terms, energy-intensive manufacturing in China values 7 to 8 times that of India, and thus carbon tariffs have a greater impact on China than on India, the paper questions whether China should hold the same stance on this issue as India as it does now, although the two largest developing countries should continue to take a common position on other key issues in international climate change negotiations.

The U.S. Proposed Carbon Tariffs, WTO Scrutiny and China’s Responses

06 Mar 2010

The Role of International Carbon Offsets in a Second-best Climate Policy: A Numerical Evaluation

05 Mar 2010

International carbon offsets have been promoted since the Kyoto Protocol and an increasing number of countries have implemented or proposed cap-and-trade schemes with international trading, even though with quantitative or qualitative restrictions. Those limits reflect the trade-off between economic efficiency, distributional issues, and the need for additionality of foreign mitigation measures. Ceilings are also justified on the ground that international offsets undermine the capability of climate policy to induce and diffuse technological change. This paper addresses these issues in a second-best setting that explicitly considers the interplay between multiple externalities. We evaluate numerically how limits to the size, the timing, and the participation in an international carbon market affect the macroeconomic costs of climate policy, international financial transfers, and the incentive to carry out innovation. Results indicate that when constraints on international offsets are moderate, such as limiting their use to at most 15% of regional abatement, efficiency losses are small because they are partly compensated by more technological change and energy market effects, although specific regional patterns are identified. Regarding financial outflows from OECD countries, already a 15% ceiling would limit financial transfers significantly. Provisions of this kind are in line with some of the most recent policy proposals in OECD countries.

Climate Policy and the Optimal Balance between Mitigation, Adaptation and Unavoided Damage

04 Mar 2010

It has become commonly accepted that a successful climate strategy should compound mitigation and adaptation. The accurate combination between adaptation and mitigation that can best address climate change is still an open question. This paper proposes a framework that integrates mitigation, adaptation, and climate change residual damages into an optimisation model. This set-up is used to provide some insights on the welfare maximising resource allocation between mitigation and adaptation, on their optimal timing, and on their marginal contribution to reducing vulnerability to climate change. The optimal mix between three different adaptation modes (reactive adaptation, anticipatory adaptation, and investment in innovation for adaptation purposes) within the adaptation bundle is also identified. Results suggest that the joint implementation of mitigation and adaptation is welfare improving. Mitigation should start immediately, whereas adaptation somehow later. It is also shown that in a world where the probability of climate-related catastrophic events is small and where decision makers have a high discount rate, adaptation is unambiguously the preferred option. Adaptation needs, both in developed and developing countries, will be massive, especially during the second half of the century. Most of the adaptation burden will be on developing countries. International cooperation is thus required to equally distribute the cost of adaptation.

Climate Policy and the Optimal Balance between Mitigation, Adaptation and Unavoided Damage

04 Mar 2010

“Google it!” Forecasting the US Unemployment Rate with a Google Job Search index

03 Mar 2010

We suggest the use of an Internet job-search indicator (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our preferred leading indicator (GI), the more standard initial claims or combinations of both. We find that models augmented with the GI outperform the traditional ones in predicting the monthly unemployment rate, even in most state-level forecasts and in comparison with the Survey of Professional Forecasters.

Monitoring Managers: Does it Matter?

01 Mar 2010

We test under what circumstances boards discipline managers and whether such interventions improve performance. We exploit exogenous variation due to the staggered adoption of corporate governance laws in formerly Communist countries coupled with detailed ‘hard’ information about the board’s performance expectations and ‘soft’ information about board and CEO actions and the board’s beliefs about CEO competence in 473 mostly private-sector companies backed by private equity funds between 1993 and 2008. We find that CEOs are fired when the company underperforms relative to the board’s expectations, suggesting that boards use performance to update their beliefs. CEOs are especially likely to be fired when evidence has mounted that they are incompetent and when board power has increased following corporate governance reforms. In contrast, CEOs are not fired when performance deteriorates due to factors deemed explicitly to be beyond their control, nor are they fired for making ‘honest mistakes.’ Following forced CEO turnover, companies see performance improvements and their investors are considerably more likely to eventually sell them at a profit.

Politics and Economics of Second-Best Regulation of Greenhouse Gases: The Importance of Regulatory Credibility

28 Feb 2010

Modellers have examined a wide array of ideal-world scenarios for regulation of greenhouse gases. In this ideal world, all countries limit emissions from all economic sectors; regulations are implemented by intelligent, well-informed forward-looking agents; all abatement options, such as new energy technologies and forestry offsets, are available; trade in goods, services and emission credits is free and unfettered. Here we systematically explore more plausible second-best worlds. While analysts have given inordinate attention to which countries participate in regulation—what we call “variable geometry”—which has a strikingly small impact on total world cost of carbon regulations if international trade in emission credits allows economies to equilibrate. Limits on emission trading raise those costs, but by a much smaller amount than expected because even modest amounts of emission trading (less than 15% of abatement in a plausible scenario that varies the geometry of effort) have a large cost-reducing impact. Second best scenarios that see one sector regulated more aggressively and rapidly than others do not impose much extra burden when compared with optimal all-sector scenarios provided that regulations begin in the power sector. Indeed, some forms of trade regulation might decrease the financial flows associated to a carbon policy thus increasing political feasibility of the climate agreement. Much more important than variable geometry, trading and sectors is another factor that analysts have largely ignored: credibility. In the real world governments find it difficult to craft and implement credible international regulations and thus agents are unable to be so forward-looking as assumed in ideal-world modelling exercises. As credibility declines the cost of coordinated international regulation skyrockets—even in developing countries that are likely to delay their adoption of binding limits on emissions. Because international institutions such as treaties are usually weak, governments must rely on their own actions to boost regulatory credibility—for example, governments might “pre-commit” international regulations into domestic law before international negotiations are finally settled, thus boosting credibility. In our scenarios, China alone would be a net beneficiary of pre-commitment that advances its carbon limits two decades (from 2030, in our scenario, to today) if doing so would make international regulations more credible and thus encourage Chinese firms to invest with a clearer eye to the future. Overall, low credibility is up to 6 times more important in driving higher world costs for carbon regulations when compared with variable geometry, limits on emission trading and variable sectors. In this paper, we have not explored the other major dimension to the second-best: the lack of timely availability of the full range of abatement options, although our results suggest that even this will be less consequential than credibility.

Politics and Economics of Second-Best Regulation of Greenhouse Gases: The Importance of Regulatory Credibility

28 Feb 2010

A Participatory Approach to Assess the Effectiveness of Responses to Cope with Flood Risk

23 Feb 2010

This work illustrates the preliminary findings of a participatory research process aimed at identifying responses for sustainable water management in a climate change perspective, in two river basins in Europe and Asia. The paper describes the methodology implemented through local workshops, aimed at eliciting and evaluating possible responses to flood risk. Participatory workshops allowed for the identification of four categories of possible responses and a set of nine evaluation criteria, three for each of the three pillars of sustainable development. The main outcome of such activities consists in the ranking of broad response categories instrumental to the objective of the Brahmatwinn research project, i.e. the identification of Integrated Water Resource Management Strategies (IWRMS) based upon the issues and preferences elicited from local experts. The mDSS tool was used to facilitate transparent and robust management of the information collected through Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and communication of the outputs.

Waste Generation and Landfill Diversion Dynamics: Decentralised Management and Spatial Effects

21 Feb 2010

This paper provides analyses of municipal waste generation and landfill diversion dynamics based on an 8-year panel dataset for Italy covering 103 provinces. Although absolute declining for waste generation is a long way off, there are some first signals of increasing relative delinking and robust average landfill diversion. Spatial effects seem to be negligible, probably due to the strong decentralisation of waste management and policies: local, economic, policy and structural factors contribute to explaining the waste dynamics. Though North-South waste performances are showing some signals of convergence, greater efforts towards convergence of waste performances in a decentralised policy scenario are needed.

Spatial Development

20 Feb 2010

We present a theory of spatial development. A continuum of locations in a geographic area choose each period how much to innovate (if at all) in manufacturing and services. Locations can trade subject to transport costs and technology diffuses spatially across locations. The result is an endogenous growth theory that can shed light on the link between the evolution of economic activity over time and space. We apply the model to study the evolution of the U.S. economy in the last few decades and find that the model can generate the reduction in the employment share in manufacturing, the increase in service productivity in the second part of the 1990s, the increase in land rents in the same period, as well as several other spatial and temporal patterns.

Returns to Migration, Education, and Externalities in the European Union

17 Feb 2010

Relatively little attention has been paid to the role that externalities play in determining the pecuniary returns to migration. This paper addresses this gap, using microeconomic data for more than 100,000 individuals living in the European Union (EU) for the period 1994-2001 in order to analyse whether the individual economic returns to education vary between migrants and nonmigrants and whether any observed differences in earnings between migrants and locals are affected by household and/or geographical (regional and interregional) externalities. The results point out that while education is a fundamental determinant of earnings., European labour markets – contrary to expectations – do not discriminate in the returns to education between migrants and non-migrants. The paper also finds that household, regional, and interregional externalities influence the economic returns to education, but that they do so in a similar way for local, intranational, and supra-national migrants. The results are robust to the introduction of a large number of individual, household, and regional controls.

Returns to Migration, Education, and Externalities in the European Union

17 Feb 2010

Licences, "Use or Lose" Provisions and the Time of Investment

16 Feb 2010

Exclusive rights, like mineral leases and radio spectrum licences, often hold option-like features. This occurs when licencees do not face the obligation to to develop the lease or to undertake the investment required to use the assigned spectrum. However, to avoid licences being unused for lengthy periods, regulators sometimes set time limits, after which the exclusive right of exercise may be revoked, prior to its term, because of inaction. This paper looks at the potential impact of "use or lose" provisions upon the private time of investment. We find that these provisions may either increase or reduce the probability of early investment, depending on the risk of losing the licence and the expectations about on-going deployment costs.

Individual and Corporate Social Responsibility

15 Feb 2010

Society’s demands for individual and corporate social responsibility as an alternative response to market and distributive failures are becoming increasingly prominent. We first draw on recent developments in the “psychology and economics” of prosocial behavior to shed light on this trend, which reflects a complex interplay of genuine altruism, social or self image concerns, and material incentives. We then link individual concerns to corporate social responsibility, contrasting three possible understandings of the term: the adoption of a more long-term perspective by firms, the delegated exercise of prosocial behavior on behalf of stakeholders, and insider-initiated corporate philanthropy. For both individuals and firms we discuss the benefits, costs and limits of socially responsible behavior as a means to further societal goals.

Individual and Corporate Social Responsibility

15 Feb 2010

Adaptation, Mitigation and “Green” R&D to Combat Global Climate Change. Insights From an Empirical Integrated Assessment Exercise

14 Feb 2010

This work develops a framework for the analysis at the macro-level of the relationship between adaptation and mitigation policies. The FEEM-RICE growth model with stock pollution, endogenous R&D investment and emission abatement is enriched with a planned-adaptation module where a defensive capital stock is built through adaptation investment. Within this framework the optimal path of planned adaptation, the optimal inter and intra temporal mix between adaptation, mitigation and investment in R&D, and the sensitivity of a strategy to each other is identified. The major conclusions of this research show that adaptation, mitigation and R&D are strategic complements as all concur together to the solution of the climate change problem; nonetheless the possibility to adapt reduces the need to mitigate and partly crowds out other forms of investment like those in R&D. The optimal intertemporal distribution of strategies is also described: it requires to anticipate mitigation effort that should start already when climate damages are low and postpone adaptation intervention until they are substantial. Thus the possibility to adapt is not a justification to delay abatement activities. A sensitivity analysis demonstrates the robustness of these results to different parameterizations, in particular to changes in expected climate-change damages and in the discount rates.

Fairness, Credibility and Effectiveness in the Copenhagen Accord: An Economic Assessment

13 Feb 2010

State-of-the-art literature on climate change policies has proposed numerous approaches for the Post-Kyoto agreement. However, in analysing the outcome of negotiations, the feeling is that a huge gap exists between policy makers and scientists. This paper tries to bridge this gap by providing a critical and comparative analysis of the Copenhagen Accord provisions, linking them to a part of the climate-economy literature. It assesses Copenhagen outcome in terms of economic efficiency, environmental effectiveness and political credibility. Our conclusion suggests that the Copenhagen Accord succeeded in considering some of the climate policy principles, namely credibility, equity and fairness. First, the change in political leadership indicates a more collaborative mood. Regarding equity and fairness, developing countries obtained an explicit commitment by developed countries for technology, but especially financial transfers, though on a conditional basis. The major limitation of the Accord is the way it addresses the trade-off between politically viability, thus implicitly fairness, and economic and environmental effectiveness. Therefore, future negotiations should deal with the eventuality of a global temperature increase above the 2 degrees, even in the presence of successful global mitigation.

Second-Best Optimal Taxation of Oil and Capital in a Small Open Economy

12 Feb 2010

This paper analyzes the efficient taxation of oil and capital income in an oil-dependent infinite-lived economy facing perfect capital mobility. Two cases are examined: one with product market imperfections and free tax choice, one with perfect competition and tax restrictions. The optimal tax rates on oil and capital strictly depend on the international tax system implemented; however, they are also affected by the degree of market power and the extent to which monopoly profits are taxed, the type of tax restrictions and the use of oil (as an input or a consumer good). Under the residence-based system, capital income should always be exempted from taxation, while the optimal tax on productive oil may differ from zero. Under the source-based system, second-best taxes on capital and oil are non-zero.

Capital Malleability and the Macroeconomic Costs of Climate Policy

11 Feb 2010

This paper argues for introducing the role of capital malleability into the analysis of environmental policies. The issue is explored by means of a theoretical model, a numerical analysis and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Considering the three approaches together is fundamental in obtaining theory-compatible policy-relevant results. The model outcomes reveal differences between results under separate assumptions regarding the malleability of capital. When capital is imperfectly malleable a carbon policy is less effective than under the assumption of perfect malleability of capital. Therefore, it is important that, especially for the analysis of short-term environmental regulations, the issue of capital malleability is taken into consideration.

Climate Change Meets Trade in Promoting Green Growth: Potential Conflicts and Synergies

10 Feb 2010

To date, border adjustment measures in the form of emissions allowance requirements (EAR) under the U.S. proposed cap-and-trade regime are the most concrete unilateral trade measure put forward to level the carbon playing field. If improperly implemented, such measures could disturb the world trade order and trigger a trade war. Because of these potentially far-reaching impacts, this paper focuses on this type of unilateral border adjustment, which requiresimporters to acquire and surrender emissions allowances corresponding to the embedded carbon contents in their goods from countries that have not takenclimate actions comparable to that of home country. This discussion is mainly on the legality of unilateral EAR under the WTO rules. Given that the inclusionof border carbon adjustment measures is widely considered essential to secure passage of any U.S. legislation capping its greenhouse gas emissions, the paperargues that, on the U.S. side, in designing such trade measures, WTO rules need to be carefully scrutinised, and efforts need to be made early on to ensure that the proposed measures comply with them. After all, a conflict between the trade and climate regimes, if it breaks out, helps neither trade nor the global climate. The U.S. needs to explore, with its trading partners, cooperative sectoral approaches to advancing low-carbon technologies and/or concerted mitigation efforts in a given sector at an international level. Moreover, to increase the prospects for a successful WTO defence of the Waxman-Markey type of border adjustment provision, there should be: 1) a period of good faith efforts to reach agreements among the countries concerned before imposing such trade measures; 2) consideration of alternatives to trade provisions that could be reasonably expected to fulfill the same function but are not inconsistent or less inconsistent with the relevant WTO provisions; and 3) trade provisions that can refer to the designated special international reserve allowance pool, but should allow importers to submit equivalent emission reduction units that are recognized by international treaties to cover the carbon contents of imported products. The paper concludes by arguing that the major developing countries being targeted by such border carbon adjustment measures should make the best use of the forums provided under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol to effectively deal with the proposed border adjustment measures to their advantage.

An Economic Assessment of the Impacts of the MOSE Barriers on Venice Port Activities

09 Feb 2010

Due to its hydro-geological features, the lagoon of Venice is especially vulnerable to climate change. In particular, it is strongly affected by gradual global warming that brings about the so-called ‘acqua alta’ (high water) phenomenon with greater frequency and intensity. In order to protect the city of Venice from the more and more frequent phenomenon of flooding, some protective measures have been adopted. Among them, the system of mobile barriers commonly known as MOSE: however, by separating the lagoon from the Adriatic Sea, it interferes with ship traffic and has negative impacts on port activities. Against this background, the aim of the present work is to provide an estimate of the direct costs of ship traffic interruption due to the functioning of the MOSE, i.e. the additional costs resulting from longer waiting time for ships passing through the Venice lagoon. The estimate uses inputs from the application of a specific hydrodynamic model and the elaboration of ship traffic data during the period 2000-2002. Results indicate that the additional costs would range between 347,943 and 1,288,067 €/year, depending on the hypothesis assumed.

An Economic Assessment of the Impacts of the MOSE Barriers on Venice Port Activities

09 Feb 2010

Tourism and Development: A Recent Phenomenon Built on Old (Institutional) Roots?

08 Feb 2010

Is tourism an opportunity for lagging countries in the elusive quest for growth (Easterly, 2002)? Recent empirical evidence suggests that the answer is a cautious yes. Aggregate cross-country data show that tourism specialization is likely to be associated with higher per capita GDP growth rates than those observed in industrialized countries. However, this evidence ignores the importance of institutional quality and results are likely to be biased by omitted variable problems. In this paper we frame our starting question within the general debate about the importance of good/bad institutions as fundamental determinants of economic growth (Acemoglu et al., 2001) and ask whether previous positive results of tourism on growth are in fact driven by the presence of growth enhancing institutions. Our empirical analysis exploits newly available datasets and controls the robustness of previous results on growth and tourism in the presence of several institutional quality variables. By means of descriptive statistics and some simple cross-country regressions we confirm that the quality of institutions is important for growth. Yet our results strongly suggest that the weight of tourism in an economy is an independent and robust predictor of higher-than-average growth.

A Simple Theory of Predation

07 Feb 2010

We propose a simple theory of predatory pricing, based on scale economies and sequential buyers (or markets). The entrant (or prey) needs to reach a critical scale to be successful. The incumbent (or predator) is ready to make losses on earlier buyers so as to deprive the prey of the scale it needs, thus making monopoly profits on later buyers. Several extensions are considered, including markets where scale economies exist because of demand externalities or two-sided market effects, and where markets are characterised by common costs. Conditions under which predation may take place in actual cases are also discussed.

Too Much Oil

06 Feb 2010

Fear for oil exhaustion and its consequences on economic growth has been a driver of a rich literature on exhaustible resources from the 1970s onwards. But our view on oil has remarkably changed and we now worry how we should constrain climate change damages associated with oil and other fossil fuel use. In this climate change debate, economists have pointed to a green paradox: when policy makers stimulate the development of non-carbon energy sources to (partly)replace fossil fuels in the future, oil markets may anticipate a future reduction in demand and increase current supply. The availability of ‘green’ technologies may increase damages. The insight comes from the basic exhaustible resource model. We reproduce the green paradox and to facilitate discussion differentiate between a weak and a strong version, related to short-term and long-term effects, respectively. Then we analyze the green paradox in 2 standard modifications of the exhaustible resource model. We find that increasing fossil fuel extraction costs counteracts the strong green paradox, while with imperfect energy substitutes both the weak and strong green paradox may vanish.

Too Much Oil

06 Feb 2010

Investments and Financial Flows Induced by Climate Mitigation Policies

05 Feb 2010

In this paper we use the hybrid integrated model WITCH to quantify and analyze the investments and financial flows stimulated by a climate policy to stabilize Greenhouse Gases concentrations at 550ppm CO2-eq at the end of the century. We focus on investments to decarbonize the power sector and on investments in knowledge creation. We examine the financial flows associated with the carbon market and the implications for the international trade of oil.
Criticalities in investment requirements will emerge when coal power plants with carbon capture and sequestration and nuclear power plants are deployed around 2020-2040, both in high and low income regions. Investments in energy related R&D increase sharply and might cause stress in the short term. However, the transition to a low-carbon world, although costly, appears to be manageable from a financial point of view. In particular, R&D financial needs can easily be accommodated using revenues from the carbon market, which is expected to eventually become more important than the oil market in terms of traded value.

Moral values and financial markets: Islamic finance against the financial crisis?

05 Feb 2010

Islamic finance is one of the fastest growing financial industries in the world, and its total assets are estimated to exceed $700 billion (Standard & Poor’s 2009). The rise of Islamic finance comes along with opportunities and challenges. Muslim economists believe that the moral economy of Islam can contribute to strengthening the ethical foundations of capitalism against reckless behaviours, while adopting Islamic financial products, e.g. sukuk (Islamic bonds), is seen as a way for non-Muslim governments and institutions to attract foreign capital, much needed in times of liquidity crunch and economic slowdown. On the other hand, Islamic finance attracts suspicion for its alleged links with Islamist political movements and terrorist groups. Moreover, several Muslim economists wonder whether the Islamic financial industry is consistent with the moral teachings of Islam, and it is questionable whether the Islamic financial system has been more resilient to the economic crisis than the conventional one. Indeed, it could be that Islamic finance is affected by the very same flaws of conventional financing methods, such as speculative investment behaviour and accountability and transparency issues. This policy brief aims to provide policy makers and investors with the state-of-the-art of Islamic finance, pinpointing the main policy challenges.

What Drives the International Transfer of Climate Change Mitigation Technologies? Empirical Evidence from Patent Data

04 Feb 2010

Using patent data from 66 countries for the period 1990–2003, we characterize the factors which promote or hinder the international diffusion of climate-friendly technologies on a global scale. Regression results show that technology-specific capabilities of the recipient countries are determinant factors. In contrast, the general level of education is less important. We also show that restrictions to international trade—e.g., high tariff rates—and lax intellectual property regimes negatively influence the international diffusion of patented knowledge. A counter-intuitive result is that barriers to foreign direct investments can promote transfers. We discuss different possible interpretations.

Loving Cultural Heritage. Private Individual Giving and Prosocial Behavior

03 Feb 2010

The aim of this paper is to analyse patterns of private individual giving to Cultural Heritage institutions in Italy. Based on the emerging economic literature on pro-social behavior, we carried out a Contingent Valuation survey to assess individuals’ willingness to donate to museums and heritage organizations according to different conditions and set of incentives. Our findings reveal that intrinsic motivations and accountability of the recipient institutions may be more effective drivers for eliciting charitable giving than the usually proposed fiscal incentives. The results provide avenues for future empirical research and policy suggestions for fund raising cultural institutions.

European Forests and Carbon Sequestration Services: An Economic Assessment of Climate Change Impacts

02 Feb 2010

This paper reports an original economic valuation of the impact of climate change on the provision of forest regulating services in Europe. To the authors’ knowledge the current paper represents the first systematic attempt to estimate human well-being losses with respect to changes in biodiversity and forest regulating services that are directly driven by climate change. First, selected 34 European countries are grouped by their latitude intervals to capture the differentiated regional effects of forests in response to climate change. Moreover, the future trends of forest areas and stocked carbon in 2050 are projected through the construction and simulation of global circulation models such as HADMC3 following four different future developing paths described by the four IPCC scenarios. Finally, the valuation exercise is anchored in an ecosystem service based approach, involving the use of general circulation models and integrated assessment models. Our findings address two dimensions in the evaluation of climate impacts on European forests: Firstly, future projections yield different states of the world depending upon the IPCC scenario adopted. Secondly, spatial issues matter in an assessment of the distributional impacts of climate change, as these impacts are not distributed in a uniform way across the European countries under consideration.

Do Competition and Ownership Matter? Evidence from Local Public Transport in Europe

01 Feb 2010

This paper investigates how the ownership and the procedure for the selection of firms operating in the local public transport sector affect their productivity. In order to compare different institutional regimes, we carry out a comparative analysis of 72 companies operating in large European cities. This allows us to consider firms selected either through competitive tendering or negotiated procedures. The analysis of the data on 77 European firms over the period 1997-2006 indicates that firms operate under constant returns to scale. Retrieving the residuals we obtain a measure of total factor productivity, which we regress on firm and city characteristics. We find that when firms are totally or partially in public hands their productivity is lower. Moreover, firms selected through competitive tendering display higher total factor productivity.

Do Competition and Ownership Matter? Evidence from Local Public Transport in Europe

01 Feb 2010

Changes in Beliefs and Perceptions about the Natural Environment in the Forest-Savanna Transitional Zone of Ghana: The Influence of Religion

31 Jan 2010

The potential of traditional natural resources management for biodiversity conservation and the improvement of sustainable rural livelihoods is no longer in doubt. In sub-Saharan Africa, extensive habitat destruction, degradation, and severe depletion of wildlife, which have seriously reduced biodiversity and undermined the livelihoods of many people in rural communities, have been attributed mainly to the erosion of traditional strategies for natural resources management. In Ghana, recent studies point to an increasing disregard for traditional rules and regulations, beliefs and practices that are associated with natural resources management. Traditional natural resources management in many typically indigenous communities in Ghana derives from changes in the perceptions and attitudes of local people towards tumi, the traditional belief in super natural power suffused in nature by Onyame, the Supreme Creator Deity. However, this is closely entwined with ecological, demographic and economic factors. Whilst these factors have driven the need to over-exploit natural resources, a situation which threatens the sustainability of community forests including sacred groves, religion has been used to justify such actions. This paper explores changes in tumi and the sustainability of sacred groves in the forest-savanna transitional zone in Ghana. It would confirm that changes in traditional animist beliefs, such as tumi, which informs the worldview of local people and underlies traditional natural resources management, is mainly due to the advances made by Christianity and Islam.

Potentials and Limits of Bayesian Networks to Deal with Uncertainty in the Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Policies

30 Jan 2010

Bayesian networks (BNs) have been increasingly applied to support management and decision-making processes under conditions of environmental variability and uncertainty, providing logical and holistic reasoning in complex systems since they succinctly and effectively translate causal assertions between variables into patterns of probabilistic dependence. Through a theoretical assessment of the features and the statistical rationale of BNs, and a review of specific applications to ecological modelling, natural resource management, and climate change policy issues, the present paper analyses the effectiveness of the BN model as a synthesis framework, which would allow the user to manage the uncertainty characterising the definition and implementation of climate change adaptation policies. The review will let emerge the potentials of the model to characterise, incorporate and communicate the uncertainty, with the aim to provide an efficient support to an informed and transparent decision making process. The possible drawbacks arising from the implementation of BNs are also analysed, providing potential solutions to overcome them.

Optimal Emission Tax with Endogenous Location Choice of Duopolistic Firms

29 Jan 2010

This paper explores optimal environmental tax policy under which duopoly firms strategically choose the location of their plants in a simple three-stage game. We examine how the relationship between the optimal emission tax and the choice of location of duopoly firms affects the welfare of the home country. We characterize the relationship between the optimal emission tax and the fixed cost, depending on the degree of environmental damage from production. Finally, we show the existence of asymmetric equilibrium in which either firm chooses relocation of its plant even if the duopoly firms are identical ex ante.

Profit Sharing under the Threat of Nationalization

28 Jan 2010

A government bargains a mutually convenient agreement with a multinational corporation to extract a natural resource. The corporation bears the initial investment and earns as a return a share on the profits. The host country provides access and guarantee conditions of operation. Being the investment totally sunk, the corporation must account in its plan not only for uncertainty on market conditions but also for the threat of nationalization. In a real options framework where the government holds an American call option on nationalization we show under which conditions a Nash bargaining is feasible and leads to attain a cooperative agreement maximizing the joint venture surplus. We find that the threat of nationalization does not affect the investment time trigger but only the feasible bargaining set. Finally, we show that the optimal sharing rule results from the way the two parties may differently trade off rents with option value.

Modeling Biased Technical Change.Implications for Climate Policy

27 Jan 2010

Climate-economy models aiming at quantifying the costs and effects of climate change impacts and policies have become important tools for climate policy decision-making. Although there are several important dimensions along which models differ, this paper focuses on a key component of climate change economics and policy, namely technical change. This paper tackles the issues of whether technical change is biased towards the energy sectors, the importance of the elasticity of substitution between factors in determining this bias and how mitigation policy is likely to affect it. The analysis is performed using the World Induced Technical Change model, WITCH. Three different versions of themodel are proposed. The starting set-up includes endogenous technical change only in the energy sector. A second version introduces endogenous technical change in both theenergy and non-energy sectors. A third version of the model embodies different sources of technical change, namely R&D and human capital. Although different formulations ofendogenous technical change have only a minor influence on climate policy costs, the macroeconomic effects on knowledge and human capital formation can vary greatly.

Second Best Environmental Policies under Uncertainty

26 Jan 2010

We construct a strategic trade model of an international duopoly, whereby production by exporting firms generates a local pollutant. Governments use environmental policies, i.e., an emissions standard or a tax, to control pollution and for rent shifting purposes. Contrary to their firm, however, governments are unable to perfectly foresee the actual level of demand, the cost of abatement and the damage caused from pollution. Under these modes of uncertainty we derive sufficient conditions under which the governments optimally choose an emissions tax over an emissions standard.

Tradable Permits vs Ecological Dumping

25 Jan 2010

In this paper we examine an alternative policy scenario, where governments allow polluting firms to trade permits in a strategic environmental policy model. We demonstrate, among other things, that with no market power in the permits market, governments of the exporting firms do not have an incentive to under-regulate pollution in order to become more competitive. This strategic effect is reversed and leads to a welfare level closer to the cooperative one and strictly higher to that when permits are non-tradable.
Allowing for market power in the permits market, the incentive to under-regulate pollution re-appears regardless of whether permits are tradable or not. With tradable permits, however, the incentive to under-regulate pollution is comparatively weaker relative to the case of non-tradable permits. This entails potential benefits for the exporting firms and countries since the prisoners’ dilemma is moderated.

Migrants' International Transfers and Educational Expenditure: Empirical Evidence from Albania

24 Jan 2010

The present paper analyses the expenditure behavior of Albanian families. The objective is to cast some light upon the relationship between education expenditure and the volume of remittances, sent from abroad by household members. To assess the existence of an education enhancing effect of remittances, an Engel curve framework is employed, where heterogeneity in interests or in bargaining power among the members within the households is assumed. The empirical estimation accounts for the censored nature of the education expenditure through using Heckman two-step as well as a semiparametric model for sample selection. Finally, quintile regression analysis is employed to investigate whether migrants’ remittances have a differentiated effect on various quantiles of the conditional distribution of the education consumption.

Migrants' International Transfers and Educational Expenditure: Empirical Evidence from Albania

24 Jan 2010

FEEM-Monitor SWF Report Q3-2009

20 Jan 2010

As we predicted in our last update, the third quarter of 2009 saw a significant uptick in SWF activity, both in terms of the number of deals and their value. In Q3 2009, SWFs undertook 25 publicly reported deals with a total recorded value of $25.3 billion, having only completed 11 deals with a publicly reported value of $3.5 billion in Q2 2009. Excluding China Investment Corporation’s (CIC’s) $19 billion recapitalization of the Agricultural Bank of China in Q4 2008, the most recent quarter represents the largest quarterly deal value since Q1 2008 and the greatest number of publicly reported transactions since Q3 2008. Moreover, this does not appear to be simply a short-term trend. In Q3 we recorded a further 18 SWF investments totaling $4.3 billion that were either announced or pending regulatory approval.

Q3 2009 also saw a continuation of a trend we noted in our last update: that of SWFs investing in international markets. For the first time since the first quarter of 2008, the majority of SWF investment (88 percent) was in OECD markets, suggesting that overall SWFs’ confidence in the stability of the global economy is increasing and that they are seeking to take advantage of undervalued assets in developed countries. However, some funds remain cautious, while others, particularly those from Dubai, are still feeling the impact of the financial crisis.

Unsurprisingly given the current economic climate, financial services—historically a SWF investment staple—was less attractive as a target sector, attracting only three deals valued at $2 billion. In contrast, engineering-related sectors such as automobiles and construction were more attractive; these sectors accounted for a total of six deals, valued at $11.7 billion. Natural resources were also targeted by SWFs in Q3 2009, while petroleum and natural gas and mining sectors accounted for three deals, valued at $6.8 billion.

The most active funds in Q3 2009 were CIC, which made five acquisitions with a reported value of $3.8 billion, and Abu Dhabi’s International Petroleum Investment Company, which undertook four deals publicly valued at $6.7 billion. The fund with the highest investment for Q3 2009 was the Qatar Investment Authority, completing deals valued at $11.7 billion.

Reallocating Water: An Application of Sequential Sharing Rules to Cyprus

22 Dec 2009

We present an axiomatic approach to the reallocation of water rights among economic sectors. Reallocation may be appropriate when the current schedule of water allocation is considered unfair. Our proposed approach is based on the combination of initial water rights, sectors' claims to water, and an exogenous ordering of these sectors. We apply sharing rules, based on bankruptcy rules, to reallocate water, which complements other approaches to the reallocation of water rights, including those based on water markets. Our approach is illustrated using an application to water reallocation in Cyprus, where reallocation of water rights has been recognised as an essential step towards good water governance and one of the main challenges for current water policies.

Equilibri 2009.03 - Un pianeta malato

21 Dec 2009

Mentre questo numero di Equilibri va in stampa, l’attenzione degli abitanti del nostro pianeta malato, dai più ricchi ai più poveri, è rivolta alla Conferenza mondiale sul clima di Copenhagen (COP15), ma trovare un accordo globale nella lotta contro il cambiamento climatico è difficile. La FEEM è stata nei giorni scorsi a Copenhagen presentando i suoi numeri, modelli e proposte concrete per favorire accordi ragionevoli sul clima. Il lettore troverà in questo numero spunti per farsi un’opinione informata e per rendersi conto che questa sfida globale è anche individuale.

While this issue of Equilibri is in print the inhabitants of our sick planet, rich and poor, have focused their attention on the COP15 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, but reaching a global agreement in the fight against climate change is no easy task. FEEM was in Copenhagen with its numbers and models, contributing with concrete proposals toward a fair climate agreement. In this issue our readers will find a starting point to form an informed opinion and will realize that the climate challenge is not only global, but individual.

Opportunities and Challenges for Cities in the Globalisation Era

19 Dec 2009

In times of increasing population densities in metropolitan areas, urban development issues have moved back forcefully onto the agendas of researchers and policy-makers. On the one hand, cities attract the most productive economic agents by providing a competitive environment where knowledge and technology diffuses quickly. On the other hand, cities face challenges in terms of congestion, high costs of living and social disruption. To discuss the push and pull factors of modern metropolises from a theoretical and from a policy point of view, experts came together on 12-13 October 2009 at FEEM during the first Conference in Urban and Regional Economics (CURE) and the subsequent roundtable, which was jointly organised by FEEM and the Camera di Commercio of Milano. This article summarises some of the ideas that emerged from the two-day meeting.

Post 2012 Climate Architectures: A Comparative Assessment

18 Dec 2009

In July 2009 the G8 set a goal of cutting emissions of greenhouse gases by 80% by 2050, calling for worldwide emissions to be halved by the same date. Since then, China and India have expressed what have seemed more open positions towards the idea of reducing emissions, while the US appears, on the other hand, to be lowering its expectations on what will come out from the next round of negotiations. Although it is widely understood that no single country can address the climate change problem on its own, the international effort has apparently run into an insurmountable roadblock.

The prospect of this Policy Brief is to discuss some of the major proposals, put forward by scholars and policy makers, to find practical solutions to these apparently irreconcilable differences. The brief is based on the quantitative work done by the WITCH (World Induced Technical Change Hybrid) modelling team, which aimed at comparing some of the main architectures for an agreement on climate policy. Possible successors to the Kyoto protocol are assessed according to four criteria: economic efficiency; environmental effectiveness; distributional implications; and their political acceptability which is measured in terms of feasibility and enforceability. The ultimate aim is to derive useful information for designing a future agreement on climate change control.

Neoclassical Growth, Environment and Technological Change: The Environmental Kuznets Curve

11 Dec 2009

The paper investigates socially optimal patterns of economic growth and environmental quality in a neoclassical growth model with endogenous technological progress. In the model, the environmental quality affects positively not only to utility but also to production. However, cleaner technologies can be used in the economy whether a part of the output is used in environmentally oriented R&D. In this framework, if the initial level of capital is low then the shadow price of a cleaner technology is low relative to the cost of developing it given by the marginal utility of consumption and it is not worth investing in R&D. Thus, there will be a first stage of growth based only on the accumulation of capital with a decreasing environmental quality until the moment that pollution is great enough to make profitable the investment in R&D. After this turning point, if the new technologies are efficient enough, the economy can evolve along a balanced growth path with an increasing environmental quality. The result is that the optimal investment pattern supports an environmental Kuznets curve.

Neoclassical Growth, Environment and Technological Change: The Environmental Kuznets Curve

11 Dec 2009

Comuni S.p.A. Il Capitalismo municipale in Italia

11 Dec 2009

Comuni e province sono azionisti di centinaia di società di capitale: 240.000 dipendenti, un giro d’affari di 43 miliardi di euro… un mezzo impero.
A partire da un’analisi dei loro bilanci, questo libro dà uno spaccato della situazione di oltre 700 imprese pubbliche locali italiane, mostrandone luci e ombre, con un paese anche qui pesantemente diviso. Il “capitalismo municipale” vede protagonista il centro nord, mentre al sud, oltre all’imprenditoria privata, langue anche una iniziativa pubblica in forma genuinamente imprenditoriale.
Abbiamo imprese pubbliche che forniscono servizi pubblici locali, ma anche imprese di informatica e di logistica, imprese di costruzioni e farmacie, miniere e case da gioco. Con una “missione” pubblica spesso oscura e differenze nelle performance – anche tra imprese simili – che talvolta lasciano sconcertati.
Alcuni comuni usano queste imprese per finanziarsi, altri per spendere, purtroppo senza preoccuparsi di come coprire le spese. Alcuni le usano per promuovere lo sviluppo delle infrastrutture, altri per pagare sussidi a lavoratori “socialmente utili”, mascherando forme di assistenza sotto le sembianze di imprese.
Sono imprese da cui dipendono tanti servizi, e flussi finanziari imponenti. Chi ha un vero progetto industriale, riesce a fare affluire nelle casse comunali utili complessivi per centinaia di milioni di euro. Chi invece le usa per spendere, riesce a creare buchi di bilancio ugualmente importanti, con pochi controlli e un sistematico rinvio delle soluzioni ai problemi. Soprattutto al sud, ma neanche il nord può scagliare la prima pietra. Forse servono riforme, ma forse, più semplicemente, il rispetto delle regole e dei vincoli di bilancio.

A New Capital Regulation For Large Financial Institutions

10 Dec 2009

We design a new, implementable capital requirement for large financial institutions (LFIs) that are too big to fail. Our mechanism mimics the operation of margin accounts. To ensure that LFIs do not default on either their deposits or their derivative contracts, we require that they maintain an equity cushion sufficiently great that their own credit default swap price stays below a threshold level, and a cushion of long term bonds sufficiently large that, even if the equity is wiped out, the systemically relevant obligations are safe. If the CDS price goes above the threshold, the LFI regulator forces the LFI to issue equity until the CDS price moves back down. If this does not happen within a predetermined period of time, the regulator intervenes. We show that this mechanism ensures that LFIs are always solvent, while preserving some of the disciplinary effects of debt.

At Home and Abroad: An Empirical Analysis of Innovation and Diffusion in Energy-Efficient Technologies

09 Dec 2009

This paper contributes to the induced innovation literature by extending the analysis of supply and demand determinants of innovation in energy-efficient technologies to account for international knowledge flows and spillovers. In the first part of the paper we select a sample of 38 innovating countries and we study how knowledge related to energy-efficient technologies flows across geographical and technological space. We demonstrate that higher geographical and technological distances are associated with a lower probability of knowledge flow. In the second part of the paper, we use our previous estimates to construct stocks of internal and external knowledge for a panel of 17 countries and present an econometric analysis of the supply and demand determinants of innovation accounting for international knowledge spillovers. Our results confirm the role of demand-pull effects, as proxied by energy prices, as well as that of technological opportunity, as proxied by the knowledge stocks. In particular, this paper provides evidence that spillovers between countries have a significant positive impact on further innovation in energy-efficient technologies.

At Home and Abroad: An Empirical Analysis of Innovation and Diffusion in Energy-Efficient Technologies

09 Dec 2009

Youth Unemployment Challenges in Mining Areas of Ghana

08 Dec 2009

Ghana, like the rest of West Africa is experiencing tremendous human migration both internally and across international boundaries. Rural-urban migration has assumed uncontrollable dimensions in the sub-region and the social consequences have become major development challenge. In Ghana the mining communities have been at the receiving end for some time now. This study on the Obuasi Municipal Assembly (OMA) in the Ashanti region of Ghana explores the tremendous socioeconomic changes, especially demographic patterns as a result of the inflows of migrants into the Obuasi Township and its catchment area in search of non existing jobs especially in mining. A major outcome is the serious unemployment problem in the township with all the attendant social vices. A three-month socio-economic study of the municipality was carried out to determine the scope of unemployment. The study showed that there is acute unemployment situation in the municipality which is due to the fact that AngloGold Ashanti, a mining giant in Ghana, the major employer, has limited job openings especially for menial workers who flock to the company. Other income generating opportunities are few. Agriculture which has the capacity to employ majority of the unemployed youth does not appeal to them because it is considered not lucrative. The acute unemployment situation has contributed significantly to the high crime rate, prostitution and widespread illegal mining activities with their attendant problems. The study explores options that are feasible for a typical mining setting especially for the youth who are very vulnerable and susceptible to crime and other social vices. Job creation, through the development and implementation of sustainable programmes aimed at training the youth to acquire the necessary employable skills is one of the options considered by the municipal managers and their partners. The study also looks at broader policy implications for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

Recreational, Cultural and Aesthetic Services from Estuarine and Coastal Ecosystems

07 Dec 2009

The role of economic analysis in guiding the sustainable development of estuarine and coastal ecosystems is investigated based on a comprehensive review of the literature on the valuation of the recreation, cultural and aesthetic services. The implications of the findings for the sustainable management of coral reefs, Marine Protected Areas, and Small Island Developing States are discussed. Finally, the potential of meta-analytical benefit transfer and scaling up of values at various aggregation levels is demonstrated in the context of coastal tourism and recreation in Europe. The results of the study support the conclusion that the non-material values provided by coastal and estuarine ecosystems in terms of recreational, cultural and aesthetic services represent a substantial component of human well-being.