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Models and Research Instruments
Intertemporal Computable Equilibrium System - ICES

The ICES (Intertemporal Computable Equilibrium System) model is a recursive dynamic general equilibrium model developed with the main (but not exclusive) purpose to assess the final welfare implication of climate change impacts on world economies.

Its general equilibrium structure - in which all markets are interlinked - is tailored to capture and highlight the production and consumption substitution processes at play in the social-economic system as a response to climate shocks. In doing so, the final economic equilibrium determined, takes into account explicitly the “autonomous adaptation” of economic systems.

ICES presents the following features:

  • Top-down recursive growth model: a sequence of static equilibria are inter-temporally connected by endogenous investment decisions. 
  • Detailed regional and sectoral disaggregation (in the present version up to 25 world regions and 20 sectors).
  • Inter sectoral factor mobility and international trade. International investment flows.
    Representation of emissions of main GHG gases: (CO2, CH4, N2O, PFCs, HFCs, SF6).

The idea behind the use of ICES is to provide a climate change impact assessment going beyond the “simple” quantification of direct costs, to offer an economic evaluation summarising second and higher-order effects.

In addition to climate-change impact assessment, the model can be used to study mitigation and adaptation policies as well as different trade and public-policy reforms in the vein of conventional CGE. The ICES model has been developed by a team of researchers at FEEM.


Support from researchers outside the team has been very important. In particular we would like to thank Alvaro Calzadilla, Elisa Lanzi, Elisa Portale, Ruslana Palatnik, Roberta Pierfederici, Katrin Rehdanz, Renato Rosa, Roberto Roson, and Richard Tol.

For information and comments, please contact:
Francesco Bosello
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
Isola di San Giorgio Maggiore - I-30124 Venice, Italy
Tel: +39.041.2700449; Fax: +39.041.2700413
E-mail: francesco.bosello@feem.it