“Google it!” Forecasting the US Unemployment Rate with a Google Job Search index
Date
03.03.2010
03.03.2010
Authors
Francesco D’Amuri, Juri Marcucci
JEL Code
C22, C53, E27, E37, J60, J64
C22, C53, E27, E37, J60, J64
Keywords:
Google Econometrics, Forecast Comparison, Keyword Search, US Unemployment, Time Series Models
Google Econometrics, Forecast Comparison, Keyword Search, US Unemployment, Time Series Models
Publisher
Economy and Society
Economy and Society
Editor
Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano
Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano
We suggest the use of an Internet job-search indicator (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our preferred leading indicator (GI), the more standard initial claims or combinations of both. We find that models augmented with the GI outperform the traditional ones in predicting the monthly unemployment rate, even in most state-level forecasts and in comparison with the Survey of Professional Forecasters.