Does speculation affect returns in commodities futures markets?

Authors: Matteo Manera, Marcella Nicolini and Ilaria Vignati (FEEM)

We discuss two different papers which investigate if and how financial speculation affects commodities futures prices over the period 1986-2010. First, we find weak evidence of speculation affecting commodities returns. Second, this evidence is further weakened if we compare results using different data frequencies. Third, a multivariate GARCH approach shows that spillovers in volatility are present.